Waching daily Jun 15 2018

Investors often focus on traditional measures for the economy, like gross domestic product,

GDP, as a sign of how the economy is doing, but it's important to remember that that's

a very lagging economic indicator.

It tells you what has already happened in the economy, which is why economist market

watchers spend more time focusing on the leading indicators.

I certainly do that, and the index that I track most closely, as do most economists,

is the leading economic index put out by the conference board, it's a monthly look at

about 10 subcomponents, all of which tend to lead changes in the economy, so I call

them the heads-up indicators.

Now they were created largely to just pick up major turning points in the economy, so

the creation of this index was there to give you a heads-up when we've seen elevated

risk of a recession, starting a recession… it also tends to give you a heads-up when

you're coming out of a recession, so it tends to lead these inflection points.

But I get a lot of questions about whether the leading economic index is a good forecaster

of what the economy is going to do, so we crunched a lot of the numbers, and I've

got two charts that are interesting.

The first looks at whether or not the leading indicators have been a good forecaster of

what the economy does, say a year from now… and what you're looking at is a correlation

chart, so it's a scattergram.

It compares change in the leading economic index to subsequent one-year change in GDP,

and you can see, based on the trendline, that it's a very high correlation.

A reminder for those not familiar with correlation, that 1.0 is a perfect correlation, one-for-one

relationships.

Well, some then infer, well, if the stock market is one of the leading indicators, which

it is, let's take a look at the change in the leading indicators and see if it's similarly

correlated to what the stock market does a year from now.

And here's where it gets a little interesting, because you actually dip to a negative .10

correlation between changes in the leading economic index and the S&P 500 return, over

the subsequent year.

What I really think the most important thing that that points out is that, although the

stock market is one of the leading indicators, it's probably the most leading of the leading

indicators, so its move tends to come in advance, which, by the time you've seen the overall

change to the leading indicators, you may have already seen the bulk of the move in

the market, which is why that correlation has dipped to negative.

These are very important relationships to understand as an investor, between leading,

lagging and coincident indicators.

For more infomation >> What is the Leading Economic Index (LEI)? - Duration: 2:46.

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Domino's Pizza Is Fixing Potholes Around the U.S. - Duration: 1:00.

For more infomation >> Domino's Pizza Is Fixing Potholes Around the U.S. - Duration: 1:00.

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Microagressions: What is Ebonics? - Duration: 16:13.

Dee Gardner, LCSW Sally Bartolameolli, MEd.

Dialogue Authentically About Real Racial (D.A.R.R.E.)

African American Vernacular English (A.A.V.E.)

African American Vernacular English (A.A.V.E.)

Ebonics is Black English. Ebonics is not slang.

If children of Slaves did not learn their grandparents African Tribal language along with English, they could not communicate with their grandparents.

If children of Slaves did not learn their grandparents African Tribal language along with English, they could not communicate with their grandparents.

If children of Slaves did not learn their grandparents African Tribal language along with English, they could not communicate with their grandparents.

What do you think when you hear someone speaking in Ebonics?

See previous two videos about Codeswitching

We want to hear your authentic comments and feedback

For more infomation >> Microagressions: What is Ebonics? - Duration: 16:13.

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This is Home: June 15 - Duration: 1:00.

For more infomation >> This is Home: June 15 - Duration: 1:00.

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The Chattahoochee is safe to swim in again - Duration: 0:28.

For more infomation >> The Chattahoochee is safe to swim in again - Duration: 0:28.

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Princess Charlotte: When is Princess Charlotte's next royal appearance? - US News - Duration: 3:00.

 As the littlest royals were brought to visit their baby brother, Princess Charlotte stole the show, waving to all of the cameras and hundreds of people crowded outside the St Mary's Hospital

 During the royal wedding, again Charlotte warmed the hearts of everyone watching, sticking out her tongue and waving as she arrived at St George's Chapel

 The youngest princess who turned three on May 2 lapped up the attention, enjoying her moment in the limelight

 After the ceremony she waved to the crowds waiting outside, playing with her dress, holding tight onto her mother's hand

 Prince George has appeared more subdued at recent events, but had a fit of the giggles at the most recent royal event, Trooping the Colour

 Older cousin Savannah Phillips was on hand to cover the young prince's mouth, even telling him to shush at one point

 Princess Charlotte despite taking a tumble and having to be comforted by mum Duchess of Cambridge was seen smiling and waving to crowds throughout the Trooping the Colour ceremony

 At one point she even appeared to mimic the Queen's wave, seen watching her Great Grandmother before copying the wave herself

 Trooping the Colour took place on June 9, to commemorate the Queen's 92nd birthday

When is Princess Charlotte's next royal appearance?  family fans are waiting until we next see the cheeky princess, which perhaps will be the same time as seeing the youngest royal, Prince Louis

 Despite having no appearances planned in the royal calendar, Kensington Palace will soon be announcing Prince Louis' christening

 The christening is expected to take place before the Family begin their summer holidays when Louis will be a few months old

 This will be the next royal appearance for the family, with Duke and Duchess of Cambridge, Prince George, Princess Charlotte and Prince Louis making their first debut as a family of five

 It will also be the first occasion the public will see an official photograph of the family of five

 Both Charlotte and George were a few months old when they were baptised, meaning given Prince Louis was born on April 23, his christening will be in the coming months

 Like the date, the location of the christening has yet to be announced, however one location could be where George was christened, Chapel at St James's Palace in London

 Charlotte was baptised at a different location, St Mary Magdelene Church on the Queen's Sandringham estate in Norfolk

 Both christenings were the first official royal appearances for the young royals, and it will be the same for Prince Louis who has not yet been seen in an official setting

For more infomation >> Princess Charlotte: When is Princess Charlotte's next royal appearance? - US News - Duration: 3:00.

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What is Classy On The Outside? - Duration: 10:55.

hey everybody I am starting a new venture

you have probably stumbled upon this site somehow classy on the outside so

this is entirely out of my comfort zone and classy on the outside began as a

funny idea there's two of my friends and I that are just absolutely hilarious in

our own minds due to some sarcasm some snarkiness and

a lot of it is due to you know unique situations that are super awkward in

life that just kind of seemed to happen to us even more than everybody else so

we joked that we should start a YouTube channel and share our hilariousness with

everybody else and get rich well it was a joke

however Johanna and I were talking another friend and she's like you should

absolutely do this be real with people it would be awesome so we tried it and

our video camera didn't really record I don't think and then we tried it another

time and we weren't focused and so we kind of abandoned it

that was March and this is what June now so here I am mid-june filming myself

feeling awkward and weird I don't like watching myself on camera and I feel

like you won't either but I'm gonna try it anyway because in talking to friends

these these what did I say three so far and our other friend Heidi talking to

these four friends this whole joke that was started is actually something

valuable and has kind of spun into this whole other idea and I'm rambling

because I'm excited about it and I'm terrified and I'm scared too but I have

this kind of not really clearly formulated vision which I need to work

on but talking to other female entrepreneurs in my area small town

rural Midwestern area

they feel a lot of the things that I've been feeling and when I talk about

feeling things as a business owner you know that there's all kinds of

shittiness that's inside unless you're somebody that I've never met and you're

amazing you have to tell me your secrets but there's this whole like impostor

syndrome there's comparing yourself to everybody

else and you're seeing that you have all these struggles that you know about

internally and then you compare yourself to this other person over here who has

been in business longer she's doing better than you in your industry

everybody loves her you know some accounts that she has yes Heather by the

way kind of referring to you so I compare myself to Heather and feel

like oh my gosh I'm such a loser and I started this other business that I'm in

that's still going but I've discovered that I hate it and I'm not really that

good at it and I don't know what I'm doing

and I'm terrified to admit this because you know it's not really confidence

inspiring for clients so then this all spirals I work from home I already have

like anxiousness anxiety crazy internal dialogue that's super negative all the

time working from home I love it but I think it makes this stuff worse because

I'm in my own head all day long not that I really miss having co-workers but

anyways that's that's a whole nother story so as an entrepreneur I'm

experiencing all this self-doubt anxiety comparing impostor syndrome I'm feeling

worthless I'm feeling lost I'm terrified when somebody wants to like do a

consultation with me and see if they want to work together because I'm like I

don't know if I should even do this or if I can help you or oh it's just on and

on and on and it's exhausting meanwhile okay so all of this is happening within

like a five minute time period really in my head this is all crazy like crazy

fast thoughts all of this negative stuff I feel like I'm a mess internally and

then I apparently I've been told that I have this

like polished presence I seem like I'm put together and I present myself well

and people think I'm confident and that I know what I'm doing I hear this and

I'm like holy crap seriously that's not that's not the internal me so I feel

like I have this whole contradictory nature and I am trying to embrace that

because it's not gonna change I'm an introvert that I'm an extrovert it

depends on the day I want to do computer work and sit in my pajamas and work from

home but at the same time I need to be out and I need to socialize so it's all

of this contradictory stuff it's classy on the outside that's me that's my life

that is just my nature there's nothing that's gonna change that I've been

trying to hide that for the 31 years I've been alive especially now you know

having my own business and being in the professional world and being in a small

town everybody knows everybody and they're probably related somehow it's

just the way this not that I don't enjoy that I like our small town but it's just

this pressure to to keep this polished persona up so that people think I'm just

amazing because I don't want to be a hot mess I don't want to look like a hot

mess but on the inside I'm a hot mess so I want to be real and again I'm rambling

and know I'm rambling because I hate being on camera by myself and I'm

feeling like my husband is probably gonna walk in the room and be like what

are you doing anyways so the point of all that is this idea of classy on the

outside there's this person that we project that people see right we see the

surface but we don't know what's going on on the inside and so I don't really

know where I'm going with this whole idea I just know that it's needed and

then I feel compelled to do it called to do it and I feel like it's such a fit

because it embodies my life everything I do from driving this nice vehicle and

I'm like dressed up and I look professional and I look normal

but what you don't see looks classy on the outside right but what you

don't see on the inside is that I'm actually jamming out to some gangster

rap or maybe it's Will Smith getting jiggy with it yeah now that you have

that in your head how about Copacabana Barry Manilow I think it is people have

no idea like all this crazy internal stuff that makes me me and then I hide

from everybody so I'm hoping I know there are other people out there with

similar issues similar feelings that they internalize and that we feel we

can't talk about because people don't talk about this stuff and there's a fine

line between too much information right nobody needs to know like my detailed

medical problems when I was sick last week you know but there's a fine line

between that like over sharing and connecting with people and being real

and sharing what's on your mind and what you're struggling with because as soon

as I open up about some of the stuff to people outside my super close circle of

friends we connect right we both felt validated because we're like oh my gosh

I have that same exact thought in my head every time X Y Z happens I have

done the same thing I've been there I'm going through that now and it's just

this powerful like you're connected you're validated you are not alone and

that somebody else has been where you've been or they're going through what

you're going through or they've done it before

and you're not this crazy out of control person because you're normal but we

don't talk about it we don't talk about the bad crap that

goes on inside because we're scared to right we don't want to have people know

that oh my gosh we are a hot mess well maybe not every day but a lot for me so

I want to connect with people I want people like me to know that you're not

alone because I've been stuck in this rut with this current business I have

for over a year and it's awful and it's miserable and it's no fun and if I would

have reached out sooner to people I probably would be in a different spot

but again I think it's all meant to be because I needed to go through this

whole like crappy year and half or whatever of all of these horrible awful

feelings I felt like I couldn't share with

anybody because they would think poorly of me and realize I'm this like fake

phony whatever so I'm letting all of that out now way outside of my comfort

zone because if you've seen me if you know me at all I'm pretty reserved like

I don't really talk about feelings or what's really going on unless you're a

select few people in my inner circle so now I'm throwing all this out on the

internet for everybody to see and it's terrifying and I kind of think I'm a

little bit crazy but I have to do it I have to try it so all of this rambling

hopefully somebody's watching this and hopefully you feel like you could

benefit from just connecting with other people that are in similar situations

business owners probably female because I feel like as females we connect a

little bit better together it's a it's a different way feels a little bit more

safe not to say we don't like men I mean totally men are welcome too I'm sure they

probably have a lot of the same thoughts so it's for business owners who are just

scared to like be real but they need to be real because that's only gonna help

you your mental health and hopefully your business so anyways hopefully you

stay tuned as I polish this up formulate my idea figure out a plan to like

organize this and actually help people out because I don't think there's really

much out there that's like this where there's this idea of you're classy on

the outside and on the inside you feel anything but and you feel alone so I

want to take that loneliness feeling away and connect people so that we can

we can share our struggles we can know we're not alone and succeed together so

hopefully you come back for more and there'll be some humor there'll be some

serious stuff there'll be some real stuff all the time so if you have any

suggestions if you have any questions or comments I would love to hear from you

comment here email me go to the website classy on the outside dot com

whatever connect with me because I love it thanks for listening to my rambling

stay classy on the outside