So, I'll briefly introduce our first speaker.
So, Dr. Elizabeth - "Lyzz", commonly known - Davis
is a Senior Researcher at American Institutes for Research.
Dr. Davis's areas of expertise include college access
and readiness and experimental design.
She has led several applied research studies for REL Midwest,
including recent research on the impact of school-wide
college access programs and the association
of dual enrollment in high school and early college success,
college enrollment around rural Indiana high school graduates,
and predicting early college success using data
from the Indiana State Longitudinal Data System.
And without further ado, I'm going to turn this presentation over
to Dr. Davis to review the research.
LYZZ: Thank you, Billie. I'm trying to get over to my
chat box and it doesn't want to let me. Uh oh.
But I'm getting ahead of myself.
And I don't want to close out - yes, I will start my video.
EMILY: Hey, Lyzz, this is Emily.
It looks like you are all set from our end.
We are seeing your video and slides.
LYZZ: Okay. Okay. I think I'll be alright now.
It's very small. Okay.
So, hello, everyone.
Like, thank you, Billie, for the introduction.
Like she said, my name is Lyzz Davis.
I am a Senior Researcher with REL Midwest,
and I am really excited to be here today presenting to all of you
on some work that we have recently been doing in Indiana.
So, most high school students are around 96-97%, when asked,
report that, yes, they do plan to go to college.
This question has been asked of high school students
over and over for a few decades now,
and the answer is always pretty much the same.
But their aspirations for higher education, though,
don't always match reality.
Only about two thirds of high school graduates continue on to college,
but this percentage has been slowly rising in recent years.
For those that do enroll, only about 60% graduate
with a four year degree on time.
And less than 30% graduate with a two year degree on time.
The figures are even lower, actually, for students
who are in need of remedial or developmental education.
So, to address these pretty concerning issues,
Indiana has made several policy changes
over the last decade or so, maybe 15 years or so,
including they've increased the rigor
of their high school curriculum with the Core 40 curriculum.
They mandated that all high schools in the state
offer at least two dual credit courses and two AP courses.
They revised their method for remedial education placement
in colleges, and they've really improved their transparency
through the college readiness dashboard,
which provides college readiness and success data
for Indiana high school graduates.
A few years ago, we conducted - REL Midwest conducted a study
in partnership with the Indiana Commission for Higher Education
to look at what high school students and school level predictors
were associated with success in the early years of college.
And we did so using the 2010 cohort of Indiana high school graduates
who enrolled in a public Indiana two- or four-year colleges.
So, now, practitioners and policymakers in the state
were interested in revisiting this study
with a more recent cohort of students,
and were also interested in exploring the role
of receiving financial aid, and what role that plays
in college readiness and success.
So, we focused particularly on two types of financial aid:
Pell Grants and 21st Century Scholarships.
Pell Grants, as everyone probably knows,
is a federally-funded financial assistance program
available for students from low-income households.
The requirements are that you must fill out a FAFSA
and be eligible for financial aid.
For example, you have to be a US citizen.
The grants provide, on average, about $3,700 per year.
The maximum for this academic year is about $5,900.
And then, to stay eligible, students need to make
satisfactory academic progress each year.
And that definition varies by the institution
in which they're enrolled.
21st Century Scholarship is an Indiana state program
that is open to income-eligible students.
I'm not going to go very deep into this,
because Gina is going to talk about this a little bit later,
but students apply in middle school, and they participate
in the program throughout high school and into college.
The scholars must meet academic goals throughout high school
and receive college readiness supports.
And as part of their program, they receive full tuition
at public Indiana colleges, and in some circumstances,
their college of enrollment waives other fees, as well.
So, I just wanted to show you, in Indiana, this diagram shows that,
for the 2014 cohort of Indiana high school graduates
who enrolled in a two- or four-year public Indiana college
in the fall immediately after high school graduation,
which, that was our sample, there's a lot of overlap
between these two types of financial aid.
So, what this diagram shows you is that most 21st Century Scholars,
about 85% of them also receive the Pell Grant.
But that's not true for the other way around.
So, there is a lot of overlap there,
and we accounted for that in our method.
So, we had two research questions for this study.
First, we wanted to know, among our sample,
what percentage of students achieved early college success?
And I will define this in a minute.
This is [everything] to do with early college, high school,
it's a term that we use to describe these set of outcomes.
And then, we wanted to know how these percentages varied
by student- and school-level characteristics,
and we wanted to know if the percentages varied
by whether students received different types of financial aid.
So, research question 2, we wanted to know the association
between these different types of financial aid and college success
while accounting for other student- and school-level characteristics
that may also be related to college success.
So, how did we define early college success?
There were three measures and their composites.
They were dichotomous measures; either you got them or you didn't.
The first was taking only non-remedial coursework
during the first semester, and we - we measured this for everyone,
but we reported it only among the two year college students,
and I'll explain why in a little bit.
Our second measure was earning
all attempted credits in the first semester,
and the third was persisting to a second year
or showing up and being enrolled in the fall of 2015.
And then, a composite of all three of them.
So, again, we had a sample of almost 30,000 students.
I wanted to again point out our criteria, which was very strict.
They had to be students who graduated
from an Indiana high school in 2014 and had enrolled
in a public two- or four-year college in the fall of 2014.
So, we recognize that there are students who may -
that could be part of this sample,
but didn't fall directly into those two categories.
So, those may not be reflective of the entire population
of these students. Just keeping that in mind.
One more down.
There we go.
So, for our methods, research question one,
we used descriptive statistics, just calculating percentages.
And we used data from the Indiana Management Performance Hub.
And for research question two, we used a stepwise regression model
to account for the overlap between Pell
and 21st Century Scholarship Recipients.
That is, we added these variables in one at a time to better
understand their unique contribution to the regression model.
So, what did we find?
So, first of all, in keeping with what we found
in the last report, students who entered four-year colleges
saw a higher rate of success than students in two-year colleges.
The two-year - this is really small on my screen -
but two-year colleges - students enrolled in two-year colleges
are represented by the blue bars.
Others enrolled in four year colleges represented by the green bars.
And again, we did not report on those taking remedial education
for the four-year colleges, because there was such a small number
of students taking remedial ed by then in those four-year colleges
because of the reform that they did with remedial education.
So, most of it was in the two year colleges.
Success definitely varied by students' demographic characteristics.
And I'm going to just highlight a couple of them here.
First off, in 2014, there were a few different types
of diplomas that a student could earn.
Some students - very few, at this point - were earning
general diploma, which was the least rigorous of the three.
Most students earned a Core 40 diploma,
which was reflective of the Core 40 curriculum that was passed.
And then, some earned honors diplomas,
either IB or academic or technical honors.
And I think that the interesting thing -
the interesting finding here is the difference between
the Core 40 and the Core 40 with honors. It's pretty stark.
But both among the two- and the four-year students,
if you look Core 40 - earned a Core 40 diploma is in blue,
and the honors diploma is in green.
And it looks like the rate of early college success
for those with honors diplomas
is much, much higher than the other two.
The same story with taking an AP exam.
It seems that students didn't necessarily need to pass
their AP courses to achieve early college success at a higher rate.
But simply taking the course was enough to make a difference
over those who didn't take any.
We have seen this -
we've done several college readiness studies for REL Midwest,
and we see that almost every time in different circumstances.
This next slide, this is for the difference
between rural and nonrural schools,
and this is really just to show that there's no -
there's really no difference in success
between rural and nonrural high schools.
It just shows that rural high schools are doing, really,
just as well as others in the state.
And then, finally, we come to receiving financial aid.
So, this is our regression model.
To read this graph, and I'm happy to answer
questions about it later, but - so, the line is at zero,
meaning no change in the probability of achieving success.
If the bar is below the line, and the gold bars are any financial aid,
the blue bars are student received a Pell Grant,
and the green bars are student received a 21st Century Scholarship.
So, those are the - that's the color scheme.
But the bars below the line just means that
receiving that kind of financial aid decreased
the student's probability of achieving success.
And if the bar is above the line,
this means receiving that kind of financial aid
increases the probability of achieving success.
So, as you can see from this graph, most of the blue bars,
which are receiving - students which received a Pell Grant -
are below the line, and most of the green bars are above.
So, what this means is that, those who received a Pell Grant,
but not a 21st Century Scholarship,
were less likely to achieve success.
And those who received a 21st Century Scholarship,
regardless of whether they also had a Pell Grant,
were more likely to achieve success.
So, that's our big takeaway.
So, what does this all mean?
Like we saw, and we've seen time and time before,
students from disadvantaged backgrounds
and those entering two year colleges really have lower rates
of early college success than their peers.
Something very interesting that we found,
for remedial coursework, as I said before,
Indiana revised the way they identified students
in need of remedial education.
So, from the original study that we conducted
with the 2010 cohort to now - with the 2014 cohort -
we saw a very large drop in the percentage of students
taking remedial coursework - almost half.
And we only report it for the two year schools,
like I said, since by this time,
most of the remedial education classes
were provided only at the two-year colleges.
But we didn't see a commensurate increase
in students earning all their credits,
or persisting to a second year.
So, what this indicates - what this indicated to us
was that this change is reflective more of the policy change
for identifying remedial education -
or those in need of remedial education,
rather than an overall increase in college readiness.
So, Pell Grant recipients, like we said before,
were less likely to achieve early college success
than their non-Pell Grant-receiving counterparts.
So - but household income is associated with educational success
at all levels of education, from Pre-K through graduate school.
And since receiving a Pell Grant is really a proxy
for coming from a low-income household,
our findings are not entirely surprising.
Lower-income students may really benefit from programs
like the 21st Century Scholarship or that have academic requirements,
as well as a program that provides college readiness supports
in addition to tuition assistance.
And as our results suggest, receiving a 21st Century Scholarship
was positively associated with early college success
where receiving only a Pell Grant
was actually negatively associated.
And we see this relationship with Pell Recipients
throughout the country.
And [SEs] like the Education Trusts have recently come out
with recommendations for ways in which colleges
can better support their Pell Grant recipients,
such as promoting an inclusive culture,
requiring academic advising, and taking the time
to better understand and mitigate
the barriers to success that these students are facing.
And just to wrap up, I always - got to talk about
the limitations of your study.
And they have mostly to do with our generalizability.
It's definitely good things to keep in mind.
Our sample, again, only included those who enrolled
in a public Indiana college, so any generalizability
beyond the space - I would caution generalizability.
The measure that we used for persisting to a second year of college
did not include those who transferred out of Indiana
to go to an out-of-state college past their first year.
So, those percentages may be a little bit lower,
but not too much lower,
because we weren't able to merge with any
national student clearinghouse data to capture
those students who went out of state.
And then this, again, only included students
who enrolled in college in the fall of 2014.
So, we didn't capture any student who might have joined
halfway through the semester, or took a year off,
or took a semester off.
And again, there's a lot of factors that can be determinative
of early college success, and we were limited to the data
that are available through the management performance hub.
So, we didn't measure all of those factors.
And finally, there's an inherent limitation to correlational studies.
And they can't detect causal relationships,
but they do allow us to figure out what might warrant further study.
So, that is my time.
And I thank you for your attention,
and I will hand it back over to Billie.
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