Thanks for watching
Hope you have a great time
Please, like, comment and subscribe for more
Official – SPAIN Football 23 Man Squad for World Cup 2018
Đăng ký:
Đăng Nhận xét (Atom)
-------------------------------------------
B*D News For Wanda Sykes Who Quit 'Roseanne' Right Before Cancellation – She Knew! - Duration: 6:03.
BAD News For Racist Wanda Sykes Who Quit 'Roseanne' Right Before Cancellation – She Knew!
Wanda Sykes is getting really bad news after she quit working on the Roseanne show.
There are a few things she's said that finally come back to haunt her as the general public
use what she previously said against her.
There's a wicked double standard running rampant in the entertainment industry ,and
we all need to put our foot down on it before it gets out of hand.
There are a few things that Sykes said that many people consider racist ,and much worse
than what Roseanne Tweeted about Valerie Jarret – a name many people didn't really know
until Roseanne just made her famous with a single Tweet.
Sykes is known for using racially charged content in her attempts at jokes, often failing
to gather a gasping belly laugh from her audience who gives a chuckle, but doesn't seem to
really be into her using the Hollywood double standard to push her fledgling comedy act.
She may have gotten lucky with a few of her standup jokes, but a lot of people seem to
be turned off by her using racism in her act.
Mostly, her jokes are subjectively not that funny, but to each their own.
The bad news is that Wanda's basic schoolyard jokes are now causing her to feel the wrath
of the public.
She knew what she said in the past ,and for her to quit the Roseanne show over a misinterpreted
Tweet that people called racist after remembering what she said herself about white people is
just oblivious.
Sykes comments about white people were rather offensive, although most people didn't care
what she said.
Intelligent people don't get offended when a comedian says something offensive.
Lots of comedians have entire acts where almost everything is offensive and that's what
makes them funny.
Offensive jokes and content are well liked by most people and anyone who claims to not
like it, while saying things like what Sykes said, is clearly hiding something about themselves.
Sykes probably should have remembered that she too made racially charged comments before
quitting the Roseanne show ,and acting like she was making a moral statement.
People who like Wanda Sykes laughed at her jokes.
People who like Roseanne laugh at hers.
There shouldn't be anyone getting offended or reporting things.
If people don't like something, then they can simply skip over it and find something
they like.
At one point Sykes said something about white people not stealing wallets, but stealing
entire countries.
Some might suggest that the Europeans "conquered upon discovery" – not stole.
Sykes also commented during one of her live stand-up shows that Americans voted for an
orangutan as ,she talked about Donald Trump and the fact that he looks like a weird shade
of orange from his tanning products.
Sure, it's obvious that the Trump uses a spray tan or tanning booth and everyone knows
he looks a little orange, and that's fine.
Sykes went for a joke by comparing the color of an orangutan and the color of President
Trump.
Some laughed, most didn't care because the joke was rather lame.
Here is a video of Wanda Sykes trashing Trump and essentially getting booed.
She would also give the crowd the middle finger.
It seems like her jokes failed, but that's mostly because people are tired of their entertainment
being ruined by politics and failure comedians going after them with racism ,and other nonsensical
verbal abuse.
Sykes allegedly made this comment on Twitter as well, which was called out immediately
for being inappropriate.
Roseanne did basically the same thing as Wanda Sykes, yet Roseanne just got fired from her
show over it (her show is canceled).
Meanwhile, Wanda just faces a little bit of social media outrage.
Roseanne compared white-looking Valerie Jarrett to someone from the Planet of the Apes movies
and this was probably because of her facial structure and haircut.
To be fair, just like Trump looks a little orange, it's a fair assumption to suggest
that Jarrett does slightly resemble Helena Bonham Carter's character.
Carter, by the way, is a stunningly beautiful woman (great in The Fight Club), but she had
a similar short hairdo (or don't) with bangs in the movie and that's probably the basis
of Roseanne's joke.
They both had very lame jokes, but should either of them be fired for their poor taste
in humor?
If a comedian tells a bad joke and people complain, then shouldn't it be "oh well"
for the people who don't like their sense of humor?
Humor is subjective, so some people might like Wanda, some might like Roseanne, some
may like both, and others may not like them at all.
Shouldn't that be how it is?
Right now it seems like if someone doesn't like a joke or finds something subjectively
offensive, then their first reaction is to boycott or get someone fired.
Doesn't that seem a bit ridiculous for everyone?
Maybe everyone should calm down, focus on what makes them happy, and stop worrying about
what the others are doing.
People who are mad at Roseanne weren't watching her show anyway, so there's no point to
cancel it.
People who don't like what Wanda said don't watch her act either.
Everything works out fine when people focus on the things they enjoy instead of being
mad about someone they don't watch in the first place.
It's all fake outrage and double standards.
Is the big problem the huge double standard?
Why can one person crack jokes about someone's appearance and another person cannot?
Do you think everyone needs to stop complaining about offensive jokes?
Would classic comedians like George Carlin and Richard Pryor be disappointed with society
today?
Should Roseanne get her show back?
Should Wanda Sykes face the same backlash from her comments (which were much worse)?
What is your opinion on this "everyone is offended by everything" disaster and obvious
mainstream media industry double standard?
what do you think about this?
Please Share this news and Scroll down to comment below and don't forget to subscribe
top stories today.
-------------------------------------------
Trump expressing regret over Jeff Sessions pick for AG - Duration: 5:20.
For more infomation >> Trump expressing regret over Jeff Sessions pick for AG - Duration: 5:20. -------------------------------------------
Ocean Infinity Ends Search for Missing Malaysian Flight - Duration: 1:01.
For more infomation >> Ocean Infinity Ends Search for Missing Malaysian Flight - Duration: 1:01. -------------------------------------------
Oatmeal: A Natural Remedy for Anxiety - Duration: 6:46.
Oatmeal: A Natural Remedy for Anxiety
Anxiety is a negative emotional state and can sometimes be incapacitating, affecting millions of people around the world both temporarily and chronic.
Whats the best way to deal with it? Pharmaceuticals, as you already know, are a recognized remedy for anxiety.
However, medication is not always the best option.
Every individual is a unique case with different characteristics and chemical compounds will not always be able to resolve the problem.
The biggest secret to dealing with anxiety is proper daily emotional management.
Knowing how to prioritize, set limits and being the protagonist in your own life is vital to allow you to be a little happier and to enjoy your personal space.
A good psychological approach and the support of the natural remedies at our disposal will always be the best choice.
Then, if the problem with anxiety persists, you should seek professional help and follow the prescribed guidelines.
Your day to day physical and emotional health is really important, thats why wed like to talk to you about how oatmeal can help treat your anxiety.
Lets take a look together.
Oatmeal for treating the physical symptoms of anxiety.
According to the American Society of Depression and Anxiety, many people suffer from anxiety in silence and never seek professional help.
In the majority of cases, the emotional state is temporary and can be dealt with by making changes or approaching things differently.
However, when the anxiety goes from temporary to chronic, it becomes a health risk.
Your health begins to suffer starting with typical hypertension, irregular heartbeat, and dizziness, all potentially dangerous conditions.
Whether taking medication or implementing psychological strategies to control anxiety, the carbohydrates from whole grains can help reduce the symptoms, according to the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota.
The carbohydrates found in oatmeal help increase levels of serotonin (a neurotransmitter) in the brain.
Serotonin has a calming effect on the brain and body to relieve feelings of anxiety, nervousness, and even insomnia.
We should avoid refined carbohydrates, like those found in white bread, white sugar, white rice (whole grains are always better to combat anxiety).
These foods cause a spike in blood sugar levels, which provide a temporary increase in energy then leave you feeling tired.
Thanks to the dietary fiber in oatmeal, it provides the body with a constant level of energy due to its slow absorption.
Oatmeal also helps stabilize blood sugar levels.
No ups and downs, which helps balance the body.
Oatmeal regulates the nervous system by helping the brain secrete proper levels of serotonin, which is ideal for relaxation and avoiding mood swings.
Its important that the oatmeal you eat be totally organic and natural and not enriched with sugar or youll lose its benefits.
You can buy organic oatmeal in health food stores, and although it may cost a little more, the investment is worth it.
A healthy way to eat oatmeal to reduce anxiety.
This is a fresh and delicious way to enjoy oatmeal and is a great remedy for anxiety.
You can have it every morning for breakfast.
However, keep in mind that even though oatmeal is a supplement for dealing with anxiety and increases levels of serotonin in the blood, you still must adopt some basic psychological strategies like relaxation and exercising.
You need to prioritize your life.
Youre most important!.
Take down this natural recipe to treat anxiety with oatmeal.
Natural Oatmeal and Pear Smoothie.
What do I need?. 1 ripe pear.
½ cup organic oatmeal. 1 cup water.
1 tablespoon honey. Directions.
Its really easy.
First peel the pear and cut it into smaller chunks to put in the blender.
Add the water, pear chunks and oatmeal to the blender and liquefy.
Drizzle with the tablespoon of honey.
If you want, serve cold with two ice cubes.
Its delicious!.
-------------------------------------------
Survival Heuristics: My Favorite Techniques for Avoiding Intelligence Traps - SANS CTI Summit 2018 - Duration: 40:53.
(light music)
(applause)
I'm here to talk to you about some of the lessons I learned
at CIA over my 32-year career there
that saved my butt from really some embarrassing mistakes,
although, I nevertheless made embarrassing mistakes
while I was at CIA and I've entitled my talk,
Survival Heuristics.
So, just a little about a (mumbles) thing here.
I did work at the CIA, I spent 32 years there
as an analyst and as a manager of analysts,
and here I am in only one of two possible countries,
which one is it?
Afghanistan, I heard the F somewhere,
and these two guys here are...
Protecting me and I carefully cropped the photo
select you can't figure out the plane number,
and I spent 32 years there.
I worked on Southern Africa and the Middle East
and then I eventually became a Poo Bah
and hardly had to work at all.
As I went through my career,
I became less and less interested
in any particular part of the world,
and much more interested in how we think.
How do we generate good ideas?
How do we examine an issue comprehensively?
And so, I became really interested in that
and as a result, I sort of became a heretic at the CIA.
I was thinking too much, right?
And I was always suggesting different things
that we could do, different approaches that we could take.
In fact, when the internet reared its head in the mid 1990s,
I was the person at the CIA who was saying,
"You know, the internet is gonna be big, it's gonna change
"the way all knowledge organizations do their work."
In fact, it actually changed the way
all organizations do their work.
And at the time when I was arguing that in the mid 1990s,
people were not very receptive that it at the CIA.
I didn't realize, and this is something
that I get into a little bit in my book, Rebels At Work,
which is co-written actually with Lois Kelly,
is that when you're trying to make change
in an organization, and this may have some relevance
to being a cyber security officer in a large organization,
when you're trying to affect change in an organization,
it's very difficult to do it
if what you are presenting is a theological argument.
So, the internet is all about opened information, right?
At least it was in the 1990s, and the CIA is all about...
Right, closed information and arguing the benefits
of something that would promote openness
and sharing an information
to an organization that was so closed,
I might as well have been like Martin Luther,
banging up the letters on the church in Wittenberg, right?
That's how receptive they were.
So, some of the lessons about that
are captured in the book, Rebels At Work.
Which some of you, some unlucky people I guess
are going to get today.
But the rest of my talk that I really wanna talk about
are the lessons I learned about good thinking
and avoiding the traps that lead to bad thinking.
So, are you good with that?
(hooting) Yeah?
Alright, let's go, so...
I'm just gonna go through a few of the traps.
Avoid the Streetlight Effect.
Raise your hand if you have some idea
of what I mean by the Streetlight Effect.
There's a few, okay, but not many.
So, there's a joke, and the politically incorrect version
of the joke is that there's a drunk
at night on a sidewalk on his hands and knees.
And the person doesn't have to be drunk, right?
It's just something they threw in the story.
And a policeman finds him and says, or her,
"What are you doing?"
And the drunk says, "I lost my car keys,
"I'm looking for my car keys."
And the policeman says, "Is this where you lost 'em?"
The drunk says, "No, but it's the only place I can see."
So, that's the Streetlight Effect
where we as analysts treat the information
that is in front of us, the streetlight,
and act as if it accurately represents reality.
And I have to say and I'm ashamed to admit it
that I was well into my CIA career,
probably 20 years into my CIA career,
which gives you an idea
of how effective their internal brainwashing is
and/or how not introspective they are,
that I said, "Wait a minute,
"this information that reaches me through my inbox,
"I don't actually know
"how accurately it represents reality."
Actually, I don't know what share of reality it represents.
Is it 5%, is it 20%?
I mean, if you think about it yourself
as cyber threat analysts,
if you were God and you were on omniscient,
and you knew everything there is possible
to know about cyber threat,
now compare that to what you know.
What percentage of everything
that you should know do you know?
But yet, you're forced to make decisions on that,
you know, you have no choice
but to make decisions on what you do know.
But the only point here that I wanna make is be humble
about those decisions that you're making.
Avoid the Streetlight Effect.
Always realize that the information
you have in front of you represents a slice,
and a kind of a flawed slice 'cause it's biased too,
and I won't get into that for the sake of time,
just represents a slice of reality.
So one, avoid the Streetlight Effect.
Trends are always, is always about the past.
I hate it when people presented an argument about the future
based on trends of the past.
Trends are composed of data points and so by definition,
if it's a date point, it has to be about the past.
So, anyone know what this trend line represents actually?
It's a very famous trendline in American history.
It's the trendline of the Great Depression.
So, the first severe drop is October 1929
when the stock market crashed.
Notice that it began to go up after that
and a lot of people thought,
"Oh, it's over, everything's gonna be fine."
And then it just steadily plummeted down
until I think the last point is
maybe 1936, 1937 on that line.
So, at any point on that trend line,
if you had based your decision
on what had happened previously,
you were likely to make a flawed decision.
So, what do I like to use instead of trends?
Well, I'm a fan...
Okay, so first you have to use trends, right?
You have to know what the past tells you.
But if you know anything about probability,
what happened a moment ago doesn't really affect
what's gonna happen next.
It's a false construction that we have in our heads.
And what I like to look at a lot
are small indicators of change.
I think the best way to observe the future
is to observe the present very, very carefully.
So, when I travel, for example,
I pay a lot of attention to graffiti.
Graffiti is one of my favorite social indicators.
Just the volume of graffiti in a particular city
like Madrid, for example in Spain,
tells you something about the social cohesion
of that country.
And from what I know about cyber threat intelligence,
perhaps this is the point for me to confess
that I don't know a lot about cyber,
I didn't work on it in my agency career,
but from what I understand
of the way these malicious groups work,
they do have a kind of graffiti
that exists, that they leave behind
as they troll companies and as they talk to each other
about what they wanna do next.
So, I like small indicators,
I describe myself as an analyst of small things.
And kind of related, but a somewhat expanded category
are non-obvious indicators of whatever phenomenon
that you're trying to look at.
What can you see that is not a direct indicator,
but somehow travels with the phenomenon
that you're trying to look at?
But my bottom line is don't depend on trends.
Related, most things don't happen by chance.
Now you know what?
I've said this before at other conferences
and I've bee appropriately challenged
by someone who points out that you do have things
like random clustering, correct.
How I really came upon this rule,
or thinking trap to avoid,
is an analyst actually,
when I was reviewing his or her paper,
actually wrote that X event in a country
had happened by chance.
And I pulled the analyst in and I said,
"Well, what do you mean by the fact
"that this thing happened by chance?"
And the analyst was you know, hemming and hawing
and I realized that when we use the phrase,
something happened happened by chance,
what we're actually saying is
that we do not understand the causality chain
that lead to this event, right?
So, when you say something happens by chance,
you're saying, "Well, there's no way I coulda known,
"therefore I'm not responsible to try
"to figure out how I could know."
If you replace that phrase with,
"I do not yet understand the causality chain,"
then in fact, you are much more likely to work
on trying to figure out why things
that you didn't think were gonna happen,
or that completely surprised you, in fact did happen.
So related to most things not happening by chance is this,
which is exponential causality.
Now, I've scoured the internet looking for an image
that could represent exponential causality.
At this point, the Grand Taxonomy
of RAP Names is what I've settled on.
If you Google that and look it up,
you'll see that one rapper comes up with a name
and all of a sudden,
that influences a whole lot of other rappers,
and then lead to a whole lot of other rappers
and this great universe of usual names emerges.
Now, exponential causality is related
to the notion of exponential functions, of course,
and how many of you have read,
Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman?
Required reading, I think,
for a serious intelligence analyst.
He makes the point that one of the reasons
why humans are so bad at statistics, me,
is because we're not very good
at understanding exponential functions.
But related to exponential functions,
how something can go from like three to 15 in one step,
is what I call exponential causality.
So, we tend to think linearly, unfortunately.
It's something that our education encourages us to do
and the way we look at facts encourages us to do,
but we tend to think A leads to B,
B leads to C, so forth and so on.
But in reality, A leads to a multiple set of consequences
and each of those leads
to another multiple set of consequences,
and if you keep up on quantum theory,
it's even argued that something
in the future can affect the past
and affect the consequences of the thing in the past.
So, you're dealing with exponential causality
and you have to respect that.
And trend lines, actually,
are a great example of something that we use a lot
that doesn't take into account exponential causality.
Are y'all still with me?
Yeah?
Okay.
Worst case scenarios happen.
Now, I love this gif, I will play it over and over again.
Hopefully it'll just, there it goes.
My favorite thing about this gif, or gif,
there's a controversy as to what you should say,
if you look at it again,
is the car approaching the intersection.
The driver, I love to imagine the driver in that car going,
"Large red ball has appeared in front of me."
You know, something he had never prepared for.
This is apparently a Toledo art installation
or something like that gone wrong
and the large rubber ball escaped.
I don't think I can stop it unless I advance
to the next slide, so we'll just leave it like that.
Anyway so, I learned this lesson
as a result of a conversation I had with a policy maker.
And bad stuff had begun to happen in the country,
you might even imagine that country as Iraq, for example.
And there's a meeting with the policy maker
and policy maker goes, "You didn't warn me about this."
And we say, "Well, we did, we told you this could happen."
And the policy maker says,
"But you said that was a worst case."
Interesting, so what was the policy maker doing?
What was he assuming we meant when we said worst case?
Unlikely, so police makers often conflate
the worst case scenario that you've painted
and think to themselves, "Oh, that must be unlikely."
So, one of the most important pieces of advice
that I have to give you all,
particularly those of you who deal
with decision makers in your company,
and who have to convince them of the importance
of a security threat of one kind of another,
that just because you say something is worst case
doesn't mean that it's unlikely and in fact,
the probability of something occurring is independent
from the consequences that that event may have, right?
And it's human nature, you have to really fight this hard
to equate worst case scenario thinking with unlikely.
Completely different and can cause all sorts of disconnects
and communication issues with your customers.
Finally, we get to move on from that.
Again, this is also about dealing with your customers.
When you're explaining, you're losing.
I think it was Ronald Reagan, when I Googled this,
Ronald Reagan comes up as the originator of this quote.
"If you're explaining, you're losing."
But when we as technical experts present
whatever our findings are,
we tend to present them with a lot of facts
and lot of information,
and we're doing that to a policy maker
who wants simply to make a decision
and the very act of explaining,
the more you go on, the more your drone on,
I think the more you're losing, as a general rule,
the person that you're trying to persuade.
This is particularly true when an argument ensues.
You say X and the policy maker says,
"No, I don't believe X, Y is true."
And then you start to explain why the policy maker is wrong.
And you ain't getting anywhere there.
So my advice to you, and we're gonna talk a little bit more
about best practices in a little while.
But my advice to you when you're talking to a policy maker
is that you need to have compelling stories and examples
to make the point that you want to make
and have those ready to go
rather than another technical explanation.
I don't know what the analogs
and metaphors are in your domain,
but you need to have those available
so that you can present them
rather than only rely upon explanation.
So for example,
a policy maker might say, "Well, do you have any evidence
"that this could happen?"
And you might not have any evidence, any hard evidence.
And you could say, "No, I don't but you know,
"we wanna avoid being like the drunk looking
"for his car keys only in the streetlight."
Something that really makes the point
without having to deal with a lot of technicalities.
And finally, I think this is the final one of my traps is
you never run out of bullets.
This is again, I guess another way
to come out linear thinking.
When I was, and I think this might
really apply to your domain.
One of the lessons I learned early on
from one of my first team chiefs,
he had been working on Laos, I think,
and he told me, "Carmen, I had it figured out.
"I had counted the number of bullets
"the Laotian guerrillas have,
"and I knew that on April 13th,
"they were gonna run out of bullets.
"They weren't gonna have any more bullets to fire."
And my boss at the time said to me,
"John, you never run out of bullets."
i.e. life happens, stuff happens,
and they find a way to keep going.
So, when you think about what you're working on analytically
and you've got it, like the whole linear train figured out
and you know that on this day,
the attack is gonna end or on that day,
the attack is gonna start,
step back, swallow a little bit of humility,
and realize that you never run out of bullets.
Still with me?
Alright, I just like to check, you know?
Alright, oh, one more, speaking of bullets.
I ruined my segue, emotions can kill.
Has anybody here ever worked at CIA, actually?
I should have asked this question earlier.
Ah, I see a couple of hands, yep.
So, one of the things that we did as analysts
is we tried to be extremely objective
and we didn't wanna have any kind of subjective issues
injected in our analysis.
And again, as I went further into my career,
I realized that that was mistaken
because the world is made of humans
and humans are of course highly emotional.
And we often would misjudge a situation
or the severity of an outcome,
or what happened in Iraq, for example,
or what's happening today in Afghanistan,
because we underestimated the emotional motivation
that the actors had in the conflict.
I was thinking how this might apply to what you all do
and I understand that a lot of what happens in terms of...
Successful attacks on a system involve getting a human
to click on a piece of click bait
that brings the virus or the malware into the system.
And you can say to the human over and over again,
"Don't click on attachments."
But you know, if they love kitten pictures
and they are having a really bad day,
the chances are heightened that they are gonna click
on that thing that appeals to us.
And of course, there's this entire field of,
see if I get it right, social cyber...
Social cyber security or social cyber attacks where in fact,
and we saw some of this in the 2016 elections
and in the Brexit elections
where people who are trying to influence
how you act or how you vote are very methodical
in presenting information to you
in a way that will appeal to you
so that you will begin to believe or accept the story
that they want you to accept.
And all of that has emotional resonance,
that's what they're appealing to.
So, emotions can kill and emotions,
if you're not in how you're thinking about...
Your cyber threat environment,
taking into account emotions,
you're underestimating your opponent.
So, I wonder a lot for example about
how emotions might play in terms
of how people perceive the US or whatever,
in terms of the different actors
that might enter the cyber threat environment
in the months and years to come.
Okay, now we're talking about survival strategies.
Construct an analytic landscape.
Now, that is actually my dryer
underneath that little thing, a picture of it,
and this is the landscape of the future of warfare
that some analysts who were working
for me 15 years ago built.
What's interesting about this is it was an assignment
where I said, "Okay, I want you all to step back
"from your day-to-day work and I want you to think
"about every element involved in the future of warfare."
And I gave them two rules, "And I want you
"to build an analytic landscape of your issue."
And they said, "What's an analytic landscape?"
And I said, "I don't know, and I want you to build it."
And I said, "There's only two rules.
"You have to consult outsiders in building your landscape,"
In other words, it can't be just internal group think,
"and you have to present it graphically.
"I don't want us to be...
"Kidnapped or held hostage by words, by text.
"I want you to present it, you could present it text,
"but I also want you to present it graphically."
So, they built this using kind of a Delphi method
where they asked people to rate different aspects
of the issue, (softly mumbles off mic)
So, the spectrum of conflict was the bottom
so it's a 3D thing and they go from
rock throwing to nuclear war,
see if I can see, what's the one on the side here?
I can't read it.
(audience members mumbling) Adversary Capability,
of course, we go from low to high,
an importance to the US or to whoever your actor,
when from low to high.
And so, you can imagine that this peak
in the middle could conceivably been North Korea.
Nuclear warfare, mid-level capability,
but highly important to the US.
The point of this is not this particular landscape,
although I think it's very cool
and our customers loved it.
The navy wanted us to build a simulated version
that their jets could fly through
or something odd like that, right?
(laughing)
But you know, it captured a reality
about the future of warfare
that you could not represent just with words
and it forced them to think about every aspect of it.
And what's important about this is
that it helps you avoid the Streetlight Effect.
You're only working on this
because this is what you have the information on.
By building an analytic landscape,
another dimension that you could overlay on it is
how well do we know each area?
You could have colored the mountain ranges by a color scheme
that indicated I feel confident
about my information in this area,
and I need to know a lot more about that area.
Once you develop that analytic landscape,
then you have a tool for shifting attention
and for making sure that you're not ignoring areas
that could be important.
And I should change this slide and it should read,
Construct and Revise Your Analytic Landscape
'cause one of the problems with all these tools,
'cause you know, we're weak human beings, we're flawed.
No matter what tool you hear about,
you're gonna use it as a crutch.
And all of these tools have limitations
and they particularly have limitations
if you overly rely on one
or if you use the same analytic landscape
like for five years in a row.
One of the things I learned about my analysts at CIA,
or they're not mine, I don't own them, the analysts at CIA,
was that we had a program that brought our
classified information into our inboxes
based on our areas of interest,
and it was sort of like this Bayesian kind of thing,
this and not this.
And one day, I asked the analysts, I said,
"How often have you revised your search query?"
The profile that brings the information into your inbox,
what do you think I heard?
(audience member shouts off mic)
Five years, never, "I didn't know you could revise it."
"I'm using the one the senior analyst gave me
"when I started eight years ago."
It was apoplectic, but such a simple thing
of such significance had long been overlooked.
So, construct and constantly revise
your analytic landscapes.
Apply a category system of some kind.
I actually think the first step
in analysis is categorization.
It's a necessary step but can be a very dangerous step
because we live and die by the categories we create.
Now this is my favorite first order categorization system.
Who knows what his is?
No?
This is the Cynefin framework, does that help?
C-Y-N-E-F-I-N?
No, look it up, C-Y-N-E-F-I-N, it's a Welsh word I think.
There's so much information on this on the internet.
But it's a guy named David Snowden, no relation.
(laughing)
And he came up with this very simple heuristic device
that your problem can fall into one--
Oops, sorry, went the wrong way.
Your problem can fall into one of four spaces.
It can be simple, so that's the problem
where linear analysis really helps.
It can be complicated, so it's still cause and effect
but there's a lot of causes and effects so that it's,
the famous Stalin quote that quantity
has a quality all its own.
So, it just takes more time.
Complicated problem sets are the ones
where experts are really helpful.
You don't really need experts when it's simple,
but experts can really help you when it's complicated.
Complex is when cause and effect is unclear
and generally cannot be determined in advance.
Complex problems are the problem set
that experts can fail you because they will apply,
confidently apply their expertise
and be fooled by randomness.
And then chaotic is where you never wanna be.
Chaotic is where there's seemingly no order
and often it happens when an existing system breaks down.
And for a while, it's a free for all
and you're not really sure what are
the important casualties are going to emerge.
I was thinking when I threw this up, where is cyber?
Okay, so correct me if I'm wrong,
I sort of thought a lot of cyber threat intelligence
might be complicated, in other words,
that you sort of understand the causes and effects,
but there's so many of them
that they're very hard to keep track of.
But then sometimes it'll kind of slosh over to complex.
I don't know if anyone...
How many of you think it's complicated?
I'll just have you raise your hands.
Ah-ha, how many of you think it's complex?
Okay, how many of you think it's chaotic?
Alright, okay, but anyway,
it's just an interesting thing to think about.
If you think about your domain
and maybe your particular company's profile,
then you could go, "Okay, you know,
"if it's simple trends, okay, I can work with trends.
"If it's complex, I better built myself
"out an analytic landscape and because it's complex,
"I better revise it all the time."
That's the way I would use
this very simple heuristic device.
Know your thinking style.
I know, who doesn't love Winnie the Pooh?
Oh, gosh, but I know that I heard
in the introductions briefly a discussion
about cognitive bias.
And we each have to know what our thinking style is.
There are a few instruments on the internet.
I've used, it's free, the Gregorc thinking inventory,
G-R-E-G-O-R-C, it's free and it's simple
and it kinda puts you, are you abstract,
or a concrete thinker, or are you random or sequential?
I asked a group of intelligence analysts to take it once
and they all ended up almost
exclusively concrete sequential thinkers.
So, what that told them,
and they were really kind of upset about it,
is that they're vulnerable to not seeing change
because change, sudden change,
is neither concrete nor sequential, correct?
Right, so understand your thinking style.
And your thinking style, there's so many dimensions,
I think that's why there's not a good test.
But one for example is optimism versus pessimism.
I'm an optimist by nature.
I believe men and women are basically good but feckless,
so they end up doing the wrong thing
even though they had good intentions.
And so, I know that affects how I think about problems.
I'm one of those whose likely to think
that a worst case scenario is unlikely.
And so, just knowing that helps me calibrate my thinking
so I'm a little bit more effective.
Find a thinking partner.
Now, because I'm kind of an optimist,
my favorite thinking partner
when I was at CIA was an Eeyore, a real pessimist.
And we knew there was a disturbance in the force
when she was optimistic about something
and I was pessimistic about something,
that's was like a fascinating outcome to us.
But do you have a thinking partner?
Do you have more than one, really, a go-to,
a group of people that you can explore ideas with?
I was part of the executive team
that took over the analytic program at CIA after WMD,
9/11, and the Iraq war, that was a trifecta,
and we spent a lot of time introducing,
and I'm sure you're familiar with this,
structured analytic techniques.
And of course, as I said earlier,
when you introduce a new method,
it tends to become a crutch.
So, everybody was into structured analytic techniques.
What I like to say is, taking a walk around the block
with your favorite thinking partner
is as effective an analytic technique
as anything you can do.
So, don't ignore the analog analytic techniques
and having a thinking partner is a very important one.
Deploy diversity of thought.
In certain domains, diversity of thought becomes harder
because your domain does not attract
a full range of thinking styles.
At CIA, for example,
we had 100,000 plus resumes every year.
But I worried that they did not represent thinkers
who were very creative,
or who were radical in their approach.
I worried that the only people
who would put their resume in for the CIA
would be people who sort of saw the world in black and white
and didn't see a lot of gray or a lot of color,
and I think that your domain is a similar domain
where you have an attraction bias where the people
who come are self-selecting themselves away.
When I would go to universities,
I would tell the audience that I was talking
to the people that I really want to see apply
are the ones who think they could never work at CIA.
You're the people I most want, and rarely got them.
So, deploy diversity of thought.
I have a whole other talk about diversity of thought
and ways to think about diversity of thought.
I'm curious, how many of you manage other people?
Ah, a lot of people, so I'll talk
about this for a couple of minutes.
First, diversity of thought is important.
Organizations that allow for a lot
of different ideas have better outcomes
even when the dissenters are wrong.
So even when the people
who are expressing a different view are wrong,
the organization still has better outcomes
and the reason is because allowing for free-flowing debate
leads everyone to raise their game.
The people that have the majority point of view,
or the majority opinion,
they work harder when they know
that their team has vibrant debate.
So, diversity of thought...
Is important, leads to better outcomes,
particularly the more complex the tasks,
the more important diversity of thought is,
and contributes even when the dissenters are wrong.
So, the literature shows that very clearly.
The second point I wanna make about diversity of thought
to your managers is that it's very hard
to manage diversity of thought
and none of you have been taught how to do it.
Most organizations want the organization to run smoothly.
When I was a manager, people would say,
"Oh, you never hear any problems from Carmen's team, A-OK."
But that's not necessarily a good indicator
because if you're going to encourage diversity of thought,
your team is gonna be crunchy, right?
There's gonna be differences of opinion
and you haven't been taught how to do that.
I don't know of any management program
that actually helps managers manage
differences of opinion effectively.
And not only do you have to manage difference of opinion,
you have to conduct yourself so that your team members know
that you welcome their opinion.
So, a couple of points there.
Very popular today in organizations is the stand-up meeting.
Five or 10 minutes, stand up, that's it, we're done.
When you as a manager
only have a five-to-10-minute,
what are you telling your reports?
That it better be really important for them to mention it
because clearly, this 10-minute limit
on the meeting is very important to the manager.
So, the way you conduct yourself
helps or depresses diversity of thought in an organization.
Another thing that's very common for people,
managers to do, is to talk for 45 minutes,
which I'm about to do, and then say, "Any comments?"
What happens when you talk most of the time in the meeting
and then you say, "Any comments?"
What do you get?
You get crickets, right?
The Any Comments is a sign that the meeting is over.
So, what could you say instead?
As a manager, what did I get wrong?
How would you do it differently?
What did I miss?
Or even, why don't you set the agenda
for the meeting next time and I'll sit in the audience?
So, I could talk way too much time,
spend to much time on this.
But as a manager, the way you conduct yourself,
both physically and with your words,
has a lot to do with whether or not you're able
to operationalize diversity of thought.
Think together from the start.
Okay, so you've got diversity of thought,
you've got different people in your group,
and then often what happens is that
you don't actually incorporate the other view points
until later in the process.
So, when you collaborate toward the end of the process,
you're not collaborating at all.
What you're doing is deconflicting.
Collaboration much occur from the beginning.
When you're close to the end of whatever you're doing,
the last thing you want is someone else's opinion
to derail you and make you start again from alpha.
So, when you collaborate
and you deploy diversity of thought,
do it from the beginning of your project,
think together from the start.
And finally, respect your intuition.
So, we talk a lot about method,
but your brain has a way of revealing to you things
without articulating it to your consciousness,
and I'm gonna give you an example.
I've never actually said this in public before
because I think it's a little, I don't know,
you'll tell, you can, you'll decide.
But over the years, as I drive around,
I'm always observing, looking,
and I've noticed, I'll be driving
and overtaking a pedestrian who's walking,
and as I overtake that pedestrian,
the thought will enter my mind,
"Oh, that person is Asian."
And then I'll go past him and I'll look
in my rear-view mirror and they're Asian.
They're Japanese, or Chinese, or Korean,
and every time I'm right, I think I'm batting like a 6/6,
my number on that, I may have been mistaken once,
and this is over many, many years.
It's been at least 10 years since I noticed that phenomenon.
To this day, I don't know what it is I'm noticing.
I don't know, and I'm not gonna Google, you know...
I don't even know what to Google.
So, I'm driving along, winter or summer,
I notice a person walking along,
and I go, "I think that person is Asian."
And I think that it has to do, I don't know,
with the way their head and their shoulders,
or something relate to each other.
Whatever it is, I can't articulate it.
So, my brain has noticed something
that I'm not consciously able to explain.
That's what intuition is.
Intuition is what I think,
at least intuition as it applies
to what we're talking about,
intuition is when your brain has picked up
on something visually 'cause you know,
your brain is best at visual processing,
that it can't figure out the text to explain it to you.
And so, I think it's always important
to respect that as well.
And I hope that you feel like this dog,
happy and content.
Thank you very much for your attention.
(applause)
-------------------------------------------
Hilarious New Nickname For Obama Library Instantly Goes Viral – Michelle's Furious - Duration: 12:47.
For more infomation >> Hilarious New Nickname For Obama Library Instantly Goes Viral – Michelle's Furious - Duration: 12:47. -------------------------------------------
Why is REAPIT software so expensive for Agents .. and is it worth the money? - Duration: 9:43.
Chris Watkin here with Simon Whale from Reapit. Hello.
Simon... we're at one of your famous lemonade vans .. I don't know what the hell that has to
do with lettings but what are the challenges facing letting agents in 2018?
Well you asked about our wonderful thing we like to keep our clients fees down so
this is an extra revenue stream that we're doing too for that.
I tell you what mate this lemonade it's good......
Do you know we don't like to keep them back
down to be honest but anyway well the what the fees as you can see if we've
made a little point about it it's not as if it's not hard enough
running your own business at the best of times but we've doesn't matter that it's
brexit GDPR you know fees ban everything else there I can't think of a
more challenging time for agents with things out of their control what we're
talking about now is taking those things that you can do can control and through
systemization obviously software we're believing we're going to give our
clients the best possible chance
.... so saving money in the background
Saving money is the boring part of CRM systems isn't it ? You know obviously technology
.. saving money is clearly what we can do certainly you know with the
account side of the software you can get very real efficiencies and we can talk
Are we actually talking about saving staff?
I have a client in in central London they at 11account staff and they went down to 7
within six months now I don't you know as a "Corbinite" I don't
particularly like that element there but it simply doesn't make sense to have
people doing stuff that technology can do better and more efficiently turn them
into more productive members of staff increase your rent roll without taking
the extra people that's what we're trying to do but but the second part of
that is I said that that's the efficiency angle always going to be that
the main thing for us is how we actually help clients make more money as well and
win new business and I'm still very conscious that you know that's what
every supplier says you know you just be one more listing to pay for that but
it's the truth.
ok so what can reap it do and on a on a detailed basis to help agents save money and then in a second we'll talk about how they can make more money.
Yeah so I mean saving money is if you look at if you look at
what the best business is around you know that the Romans of the world and we
were talking about this just before we about that Japanese philosophy Kaizen .. business improvement..
Because you've just come back from Japan haven't you??
I did and it was a business trip just really it was all
business and I've obviously the Japanese operate that's that Kaizen
principle famously with Toyota you know what many businesses I'm sure you'll
agree with this is that most businesses go for the wrong metric and they go for
the wrong target they'll go for how do we double our turnover too amorphous too wide ??????...
- why does not really do anything ....what the best businesses that
the Romans of the world you know the Marsh and Parsons of the world those that
sit down and look at those processes and look at where they can improve just by a few key percent.
A bit like the sky cycling thing those are lots of little bits?
It's exactly that.
And it can Reapit help with that?
Absolutely because it once you start talking about systemization and efficiency well that's
where technology and CRM must have come in so it's very unexciting I accept that
but the point is it there's nothing more important... people are important your telephone is the second most
but I firmly believe that after all that the CRM system that you log into the first thing in the
morning and the last thing at night has got to be the best investment.
Okay so what can Reapit do to get more business for agents and more landlords?
So ultimately most people would be very familiar ( I won't mention the competitors)
...it's a lot of different systems they get
very frustrated that you know the data ...... is locked away in the system and you can't get it out.
Or you don't know where it is?
Yeah you don't know where it is and you can't do with that I think we've really nailed that a
liberator bit of a strong word but enabling empowering our clients to be
able to pull that out and our our secret source if you like is something called
power reports which literally extract you I think they can get a heavy field
in the database building quite advanced yet simplistic reports if this then that
and then it's really down to you know so you can go I want to target
landlords with more than ten properties who like golf who we haven't you know
we're not managing all of their their stock and then you invite them along to
a golf day or something like that that's when you're you know you're mixing
together estate agency software and that CRM to come up with a prospecting tool
obviously you know ultimately will win you business.
Okay but like most things in life .......... people buy these bits of kit but then don't know how to use it !
What are you doing to teach clients to get the most out Reapit?..........
Thats really good question and I'm glad you asked......
and genuinely it's absolutely hit the nail on the head
we have without doubt ......
think is like nine of the last eleven winners of the Sunday Times have been our clients
We have some of the very best agents on board with us we also
have..... we don't have bad ages because I don't think they would see the value
in what we do but we have some less than than amazing agents and what the problem
that is it's the same software realistically don't get me wrong we make
custom changes but there's nothing stopping those guys
with the tools that they have it's about application..................
But what are you doing............ what are you doing at Reapit.... because let's be honest it's not cheap......... What are you doing to help your agents get the best ??
..Although Jet is competitive........
yeah so Jet that's very competitive our small business edition
but yeah you're absolutely right that the thing that when we when the
business was founded years ago our founder George looked at the marketplace
and he was he can barely work he could barely work email I can say that now
because he's left the business but the key thing he said was look there's not
actually a lot of these packages do a hell of a lot but no one knows how to
use it it's not your phone it's me you've got 99 apps on there you probably
used 10% well .....you're never gonna have a raving fan are you when
you're using that little of it so okay in a way it was a beneficial for them
for the client but it's beneficial for us because we then .....( cut to the chase) we
include training we include a training in the model.......... obviously ....... you get a huge amount of training
at the start as every provider does do but we don't
charge extra for it and as you say so where we get accused of being expensive ... and
we are more than the most it's because we we say the training is too important
we don't see it as a revenue stream we say we want everyone to be trained up to
the max so you get that trained in the beginning you get twice yearly training
sessions if you want to have it we do I think is weekly bi-weekly around our
offices so if you have a new member of staff rather than read the user manual or you
know learn bad habits off Doris in the corner you can send them free of charge
to our offices and get trained up.
Well I tell you what guys I've I've been to
Reapit towers and there was the number of people in the number of rooms I
thought there all staff members and you said no they were actually letting
agents there to do some training so what he says is bang-on anything else??
Yes so thats if you like is the the fundamentals
so that's helping the people you know
get into you 70 80 90 percent of the system and learning everything that it
can do but then understanding the scope of it and what we do amazingly well I
think it...... whereas with other system but if you look there are a load of people here today so
I've got all these workarounds for the various systems we do we try and model
them and reinforce the way that an agency works within the software via
workflow by a whole host of different things that is done that doesn't
happen magically that's done through our account managers or our CRM.
So your people on the ground are talking to letting
agents finding out what the letting
agents want from the from the CRM system and then you .......change the CRM
system to fix that around it?
Our Account Managers manage between 20 and 30
clients at any one time...... (seems quite low)...... it is very low and we
don't want people being we don't want people being overloaded and that's a key
part so these people live and breathe these businesses so you you know use a
common joke is the Simon Whale and the drinking and that he's an absolute lunatic! ....and
our table is the loudest is because we we aren't just hanging on to our our
clients coattails you know we revel it with part of their
businesses because when you spend that much time living with you know within
this familiarity and you want them to crush the competition as much as they do
themselves. ......Well they're joining in the party aren't they? ...............
Mark Bevan is over there he's just joining the sales team but he was an Account Manager for
us and he is so involved I would regularly see him at like 11 o'clock you
know sort of Midnight there.. monitoring clients Twitter feeds you know liking
their things .................spotting if theres anything wrong there ....
... he's almost like ...but this is included in the service this is how
some people go above and beyond to actually deliver .
It's almost like...... there isn't a line......
you just go beyond it (yeah) ... there's no line to be met
I think that that the ...levels of
expectation increase year on year .......... the competition never stops still of
course and I imagine a good example of other way that although we don't have
you know the in office training you know within the Jet Model that's digital ....so
we did do .......what we've invested in a massive amount in a learningmanagement system ..
.......we call it Reapit IQ because we are no good at marketing... but
basically that allowed us then to ... we've videoed every part of the system into
bite-sized so people can consume these videos when they are on the tube...
So they are getting the same amount of learning albeit online but it's a lower price????....
And we're going to be
including it we're gonna be principles of business we'll be able to see how
their how their staff are marked and measured.....it will go towards CBD as well so we're
looking at that element of it so we're really that blended approach you know so
we're always going to still have that in office training but adding in
the digital thing which people you know want it I think is a it's a lovely
enhancement to the way we go.
Simon it's been emotional. Thanks very much. Cheers cheers guys..
-------------------------------------------
It Was OK For This Comedian To Call Trump A 'Cheap Cracker' And 'B*tch,' We Found Out Why - Duration: 5:07.
For more infomation >> It Was OK For This Comedian To Call Trump A 'Cheap Cracker' And 'B*tch,' We Found Out Why - Duration: 5:07. -------------------------------------------
Magician David Copperfield found not liable for British tourist's injuries - Duration: 3:08.
Magician David Copperfield found not liable for British tourist's injuries
A jury in Las Vegas found magician David Copperfield negligent but not financially liable for a British tourists injuries during one of his vanishing acts in 2013.
Gavin Cox is 100% liable for his own injuries, a jury found late Tuesday night, according to the Clark County District Court documents.
The tourist took part in the magicians signature disappearing trick, and said he suffered brain injuries when he fell during the performance.
The jury ruled the five parties named in the lawsuit -- including Copperfield -- were all 0% responsible for the injuries. Cox was 100% responsible for his injuries, it said.
Cox was taking part in an illusion trick that makes 13 random audience members disappear on stage.As part of the trick, Copperfield randomly picks participants by throwing 13 balls into the audience and the volunteers are placed in a cage that hovers over the stage.
The illusionist then reveals the 13 at the back of the room.Cox took part in the trick, and says he suffered brain damage after he tripped backstage and fell into a dark construction zone.
The multimillion-dollar lawsuit he filed a year after the incident not only named Copperfield, but also MGM Grand Hotel and at least three other companies connected to the show.
During the trial, Copperfield told the court Cox participated in the trick, referred to as the vanishing crowd or Lucky 13, and ran the course with no problems.Copperfields attorney, Elaine Fresch, told the Las Vegas Review-Journal that it was the the right verdict in a very important trial. The newspaper reported that Coxs wife passed out after the verdict was read and later left the courtroom with her husband without talking to reporters.
It said Coxs attorney, Benedict Morelli, told the jury that several factors led to his injuries, including being forced to run up a ramp in the dark.During the trial, Copperfield testified that he found out about the injury a year later, and said he has not performed the routine since 2015, according to the paper.
-------------------------------------------
Ford F-150: Smart Capability For Improved Productivity | F-150 | Ford - Duration: 2:39.
I'm Sean Riley, and in my line of work I end up at a lot of different work sites.
And you know what, I see more Ford trucks than any other.
So when they asked me to check out the capability and productivity features,
I jumped at the chance.
[MUSIC]
See a truck that helps you work hard, that's important.
But a truck that can help you work smarter,
now that'll get you home early once in awhile.
So let's jump right into it and check out capability.
This F-150's body is made from high-strength,
military-grade aluminum alloy.
It's just as strong as steel but much lighter, and that weight reduction has
allowed the Ford engineers to increase overall strength and efficiency.
And that translates to best-in-class towing and
best-in-class payload.
Let's take a look in the cargo bed for a feature that in my humble opinion is pure
engineering genius, it's called BoxLink.
Take a look at this right here and again over here.
There are four of these structurally reinforced mountain plates bolted to
the side of the bed and each one is fitted with its own uniquely designed cleat.
These cleats accept bungees, s hooks, or ratchet straps,
that gives you a lot of options for tying your stuff down.
BoxLink also accepts accessories like bed dividers,
that's a huge help in keeping your cargo box organized and secure.
And the smart capability continues with stowable loading ramps,
stored on the sides of the cargo bed via the BoxLink system.
They mount quickly to the tailgate to make easy loading of ATVs, motorcycles, mowers,
or just about anything on wheels that'll fit in the bed.
Climbing into the cargo area is a whole lot easier with this integrated
tailgate step, it holds up to 350 pounds and it's there in a snap when you need it.
[MUSIC]
When you're done, it folds away into the tailgate for
a completely flat inner tailgate surface.
All right, well, we've all been there, your day job turns into a night job.
But with this truck, you won't be working in the dark, check this out,
LED box lighting.
It illuminates the cargo beds so you can see what you're doing.
There's a tailgate LED to help you hookup a trailer at night,
plus LED side-mirror spotlights to light up any task at hand after the sun has set.
So you can see why F-150 has become such a valuable tool on the work site for so
many years.
It really has set the standard for half-ton pickups.
F-150 doesn't just raise the bar, it is the bar.
[SOUND]
-------------------------------------------
Capsule hotel provides tiny rooms for World Cup visitors in Yekaterinburg - Duration: 2:18.
"It looks very much like some kind of space travel, like a space ship. We have not seen anything like this, it is a new thing, so it was very interesting to try."
"Everybody who took the risk and came here thinks they might feel claustrophobic here and that the space is cramped. But 99 percent (of the visitors) are very pleased because there is no feeling of cramped space thanks to the lights and to the mirror, thanks to air conditioniNg. One sleeps very comfortably in the capsules so everyone is very glad."
-------------------------------------------
Imagine Education For All - Duration: 3:28.
For more infomation >> Imagine Education For All - Duration: 3:28. -------------------------------------------
Chris Brown Is Here For Drake & Pusha T Diss Tracks: "Where's The Popcorn?" - Duration: 3:01.
Chris Brown Is Here For Drake & Pusha T Diss Tracks: "Where's The Popcorn?"
Last week, Drake unleashed the Duppy freestyle, sending shots at Pusha T and Kanye West and even sending them an invoice for promotional assistance and career reviving.
While it took a few days for Pusha T to respond to the disses, he did not hold back at all, coming out in full force in The Story of Adidon, claiming that Drake is a deadbeat father who has a baby by a stripper.
The cover uses an old photo of Drizzy in blackface, shocking many when it was revealed to be a legitimate photograph.
As we sit back and watch their feud come together, it appears as though were not the only ones.
Declaring it as the return of hip-hop, Chris Brown was excited to see the back-and-forth between King Push and Drake unfolding.
He made sure to voice his amusement on DJ Akademiks post of the controversial cover art, sliding into the comment section and writing, Hip hop is back.
Wheres the popcorn. As he is used to being caught up in seemingly every dramatic event in Hollywood, Breezy is more than happy to take the backseat here, watching from afar to see how both sides will retaliate.
As the Toronto rapper has declaredly returned to album mode, we may not see his rebuttal until the release of Scorpion but, with the date being set any time during the month of June, the project could drop as soon as this Friday.
In your opinion, who has the upper hand right now? Could Drake go back-to-back once again in his attempt to ether Pusha T? Only time will tell.
-------------------------------------------
240 min Hairdryer White Noise | ASMR for babies blow dryer hair dryer - Duration: 4:00:02.
240 min Hairdryer sound
Hair dryer - white noises : makes every baby sleep
The smooth Hairdryer sound in 3D Audio is super relaxing even for adults.
-------------------------------------------
Spain Football Team 23 Man Squad for World Cup 2018 || Official || world Reporter - Duration: 3:13.
Official – SPAIN Football 23 Man Squad for World Cup 2018
Không có nhận xét nào:
Đăng nhận xét