Trump Is Taking The US-Saudi Relationship To The Next Level?
One of the major tenets of Donald Trump�s presidential campaign was his promise to bring
about �complete American energy independence,� a promise that won him the unwavering support
of the U.S. fossil fuel industry and several key endorsements.
After his election, Trump appeared to remain committed to this pledge, vowing last November
to block all oil imports from Saudi Arabia in order to secure domestic energy independence
from �our foes and the oil cartels.�
But Saudi Arabia, as fate would have it, did not stay on Trump�s list of �foes� for
very long.
Trump�s first meeting last week with a member of the Saudi royal family � Deputy Crown
Prince Mohammed bin Salman � marked a �historic turning point,� not only for Trump�s own
policies regarding the Gulf monarchy, but for U.S.-Saudi relations as a whole, according
to a statement issued by the Saudis after the meeting.
The statement, issued by the deputy crown prince�s senior adviser, added that U.S.-Saudi
relations during the Obama era �had undergone a period of difference of opinion.�
�However, today�s meeting has put things on the right track, and marked a significant
shift in relations, across all political, military, security and economic fields.
All of this is due to President Trump�s great understanding of the importance of relations
between the two countries and his clear sight of problems in the region.
[�] After this historic meeting today, cooperation between the two countries will be in its upmost
level.�
Considering the long-standing �special relationship� between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, it�s
hard to imagine how the two nations could align even more closely in their policies.
But Saudi Arabia�s multiple foreign entanglements that are intended to extend its influence
� along with the U.S.� addiction to Saudi oil � offer Trump the opportunity to prove
himself as �a true friend� of the Saudis �who will serve the [Wahhabi] Muslim World
in an unimaginable manner.�
However, more seems to be happening behind the scenes.
As political analyst Catherine Shakdam told MintPress: �on paper it very much appears
as if the Trump administration has given in to Saudi Arabia�s lobbying activities and
essentially decided to toe Riyadh�s line against Iran to preserve whatever financial
ties exist in between the two allies.�
Yet, with the Saudis �unraveling at the seam,� Shakdam argues that �[Trump�s]
stance depends on where the wind will blow next.� This raises the question: could this
latest meeting be yet another attempt by Trump to keep foreign leaders � even long-time
regional allies � on edge?
The Waning U.S.-Saudi �Special Relationship� Though U.S. foreign policy consistently puts
the country�s own interests above any guarantees based on �loyalty,� the long-standing
�special relationship� between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. will not be an easy one to shake.
Ever since the post-World War II era began, the Saudis and the U.S. have had a relationship
where the U.S. offers the Saudis military and geopolitical �security� in exchange
for the Saudi�s most valuable resource: its oil.
This relationship has dominated U.S. foreign policy interests in the Middle East for the
better part of the last century, especially after the 1970s, when U.S.-Saudi relations
went to the next level with the advent of the petrodollar system.
Despite the petrodollar system�s binding of Saudi (and OPEC) oil sales to the value
of the U.S. dollar, events in recent years have shown that not even this powerful system
has been enough to keep the U.S. �loyal� to Saudi interests as it had in the past.
This manifested most noticeably during the Obama administration, culminating in the Iran
nuclear deal � a pact harshly criticized by the Saudis, as well as Trum.
In addition, Obama further angered the Saudis by telling them to �share the neighborhood�
with Iran, their greatest regional and economic rival.
However, Obama kept relations civil, partly through his massive arms sales to the Saudi
kingdom.
Though Trump has adopted rhetoric that the Saudis are eager to hear regarding Iran, his
administration�s recent statements on the Iran nuclear deal suggest that he may also
adopt a position similar to that of the Obama administration.
Last Tuesday, Christopher Ford, the White House National Security Council�s senior
director for weapons of mass destruction and counter-proliferation, said the Trump administration
will honor a 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran.
This latest announcement stands in stark contrast to Trump�s prior statements on the Iran
deal, as well as the Saudi�s belief after last week�s meeting that Trump and the Saudis
share an alarmist view �on the gravity of the Iranian expansionist moves in the region.�
This latest about-face from the new presidential administration suggests that its previously
aggressive stance on Iran may have been a form of posturing meant to please regional
allies like Israel and the oil-rich Gulf monarchies.
In an interview with MintPress, Shakdam alluded to this, stating that Trump�s change of
heart could mean that �the Trump administration is buying itself some time before moving against
Saudi Arabia and in favor of Iran.�
But Iran�s �flourishing regional influence� may make a restoration of relations with the
Islamic Republic too attractive for Trump to pass up, especially considering that the
current president is first and foremost a businessman.
Over the last decade especially, Iran has developed a �resistance� economy in response
to ongoing U.S. sanctions and other similar measures, a development that has paid off
significantly, particularly in the diversification of the Iranian economy and the growth of its
electricity exports and increasing economic cooperation with Eurasian nations, as well
as geopolitical rivals like Turkey.
Iran�s economic ascendancy is becoming difficult to ignore.
As Shakdam pointed out, �A rapprochement in between Iran and the U.S. makes perfect
geopolitical sense�economically Iran�s market would offer a much-needed breathing
space and guarantee growth.
If we consider that the U.S. values capitalism above all else, then a change towards Iran
makes perfect sense.�
Iran is increasingly becoming a more attractive potential ally in the region, despite decades
of animosity in U.S.-Iranian relations, as Saudi Arabia continues to struggle economically
due to its economic reliance on oil exports.
While Saudi Arabia�s oil dominance has allowed it to wield great influence in the region
for decades, declining oil prices in recent years have taken a drastic toll on the Saudi
economy.
In the Saudi kingdom, economic growth is expected to slow to 0.9 percent in 2017, a significant
drop from the 10-percent growth seen in 2011, when the price of crude oil was significantly
higher.
As a result of the slowdown, Saudi Arabia�s credit rating took a major hit on Wednesday
when Fitch downgraded the nation due to its soaring fiscal deficit and declining balance
sheet.
With the regional influence of the Saudis waning and Iran ascending as a regional power,
can the U.S. afford to continue shunning Iran while the powerful and influential Saudi monarchy
continues to wane?
War In Yemen Another Key Factor Though the U.S.� shifting positions regarding
the long-time geopolitical rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran is key to gauging Washington�s
true intentions in the region, the Saudi conflict in Yemen is another important theater in assessing
whether Trump will ultimately emerge as the �true friend� that the Saudis are now
expecting.
Since March 2015, the Saudis have been waging a brutal war in Yemen that is bordering on
genocide, all with the express intention of maintaining influence and control over the
nation�s most strategic geographical feature � the Bab al-Mandab strait, critical to
the region�s oil trade.
In an effort to drive out resistance to foreign influence in Yemen � led by the Houthi religio-political
movement � the Saudis have committed multiple war crimes, resulting in a massive humanitarian
crisis that claims the lives of an estimated 1,000 children every week.
While the U.S. has remained silent about Saudi war crimes in Yemen and �assisted� the
Saudi campaign with airstrikes and massive arms sales, the Obama administration tried
its best to avoid adopting a major role in the conflict while also honoring the decades-old
U.S.-Saudi arrangement of security-for-oil.
But under Trump, U.S. involvement in Yemen has already escalated.
As Foreign Policy reported, Trump recently dropped more bombs on Yemen in one week than
Obama did in an entire year.
Not only that, but the now infamous Navy Seal raid in Yemen also happened on Trump�s watch,
a raid that was badly botched and resulted in the loss of many civilian lives.
These increases seem to suggest that Trump is seeking to win the approval of the Saudis
� at least on this front.
However, several analysts have argued that Trump�s escalation of U.S. involvement in
Yemen is unlikely to go any further than it already has.
Gregory Gause, a professor of international affairs at Texas A&M University and a Saudi
specialist, told Bloomberg that �I do not think that the Trump administration wants
to get more deeply involved in Iraq, Syria or other places where the Saudis would want
help in turning back Iranian influence.�
Shakdam shared Gause�s perspective, saying �President Trump may agree to a few airstrikes
[in Yemen] so that he could score military brownie points with Riyadh, but I don�t
expect any real commitment.
A lot of [U.S. involvement in Yemen] is military posing.�
However, recent suggestions that Trump has little chance of achieving his domestic policy
goals �in the absence of starting a new war� could alternatively mean that Trump
may be seeking the support of the Saudi military in the event that such a war were to emerge
from any one of the armed conflicts currently taking place in the Middle East.
The U.S.� involvement in Yemen, then, could just be another form of appeasement.
Appeasement As Protection � Saudis Could Still Crash The Dollar
Even if Trump and his administration are considering pivoting toward Iran out of economic interest,
they will be forced to appease the Saudis regardless.
While Saudi influence is diminishing as its national economy weakens, the oil-rich Gulf
kingdom still has the ability to unleash economic armageddon upon the U.S. if it so chooses
� all thanks to the petrodollar system.
The petrodollar system is dependent on the Saudis and other members of OPEC conducting
their oil sale transactions in U.S. dollars, a system that creates artificial demand for
the dollar and thus artificially increases the dollar�s value.
As the continued existence of this system is dependent on Saudi cooperation, the U.S.
cannot blatantly reject its alliance with Saudi Arabia without suffering major consequences.
Over the years, the Saudi government has made this quite clear stating blatantly on several
occasions that OPEC could crash the dollar if the oil-producing bloc chose to price oil
in alternative currencies.
In fact, the Saudis have used the petrodollar system as a bargaining chip in the past, threatening
economic warfare against the dollar when they have felt threatened by changes in U.S. policy.
For instance, last year, Saudi Arabia threatened to liquidate its U.S. assets and crash the
dollar if Congress were to pass a bill allowing the Saudis to be held responsible for their
role in the terror attacks of September 11.
Though the bill passed, the Saudi threat did not materialize due to an Obama-brokered billion-dollar
arms sale to the Saudis � another example of appeasement in action.
The recent meeting between the Saudi deputy crown prince and Trump also shows more evidence
of the U.S. bowing to Saudi interests.
According to a White House statement issued after the meeting, Trump voiced his support
for a new U.S.-Saudi program in which the U.S. will invest � both directly and indirectly
� more than 200 billion dollars in the struggling Saudi economy over the next four years.
Supporting such a massive investment plan is a clear method of appeasement, considering
that Trump recently proposed �dramatic reductions� in foreign aid.
Saudi Arabia will likely be excluded from these reductions � just as it was excluded
from his temporary travel ban.
But despite Trump�s best efforts to remain predictable and play both sides in the rivalries
that dominate Middle East politics, he may have bitten off more than he can chew.
He will eventually be forced to choose between the economic interests of the U.S. and its
long-standing alliances in the region.
For more infomation >> Within Temptation feat Dave Pirner Whole world is watching - Duration: 4:14. 
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