ONE WEEK TO GO BEFORE WE KNOW
WHO THEY'LL SELL OUT THE REST OF
PAT TIBERI's SEAT— DEMOCRATS DANIEL O'CNNOR
AND REPUBLICAN TROY BALDERSON ARE
LOOKING TO REPLACE HIM WHO LEFT
CONGRESS LAST WINTER.
KYLE, THE VETERAN POLITICAL
PROGRESS NOS INDICATOR OF THE
CRYSTAL BALL SAYS THEY HAVE
REPUBLICANS TO A TOSS-UP.
IT POINTS TO EARLY VOTING TRENDS
AS ONE REASON FOR HIS CHANGE.
O'CONOR, MEANWHILE, RAN INTO A
BIT OF TROUBLE ON NATIONAL TV
THIS WEEK.
HE WAS ASKED ABOUT HIS REFUSAL
TO SUPPORT HOUSE SPEAKER NANCY
PELOSI.
>> WHO ARE YOU GOING TO VOTE FOR
FOR SPEAKER?
>> I DON'T KNOW WHO IS GOING TO
RUN.
>> ONCE HE IS RUNNING FOR
RE-ELECTION --
>> WE NEED CHANGE.
>> YOU'RE NOT VOTING FOR PELOSI.
>> NO.
>> YOU HAVE TO TAKE WUCHT
VOETSDS.
WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO?
IF YOU ARE ONE OF THE 218 THAT
NEED TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE
HOUSE, AND THE VOLUNTARY ET IS
PELL OSY, WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO
DO?
>> YOU DON'T GET CONTROL OF THE
HOUSE.
IT'S A DECISIVE VOTE, WHICH YOU
VOTE AGAINST PELOSI?
IF IT'S DECISIVE.
YOU KNOW YOU HAVE TO DECIDE
THIS.
TELL ME YOU KNOW YOU HAVE TO
DECIDE IT.
>> WE NEED NEW LEADERSHIP.
>> TELL ME YOU KNOW --
>> THE OLD WAYS AREN'T WORKING.
>> YOU KNOW THAT THE DEMOCRATS
CAN GET CONTROL.
YOU HAVE TO HAVE 218 MEMBERS OF
THE HOUSE VOTE FOR THE CANDIDATE
OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY FOR
SPEAKER.
WOULD YOU DO THAT?
>> THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY.
>> THANK YOU.
>> DANNY O'CONOR.
>> HARDBALL THERE.
>> DID YOU NOT CATCH THAT?
HE BASICALLY ADMITS THAT HE
COULD VOTE FOR PELOSI IF IT WAS
BETWEEN HER AND THE REPUBLICAN
FOR SPEAKER.
>> HOW MUCH DO THE VOTERS IN THE
12th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
REALLY CARE ABOUT NANCY PELOSI
OR THE OTHER SPEAKER -- JIM
JORDAN, WHO WILL BE SPEAKER ON
THE REPUBLICAN SIDE?
>> YOU KNOW, THAT'S A GOOD
QUESTION.
>> I LEAR A LITTLE MORE OF THAT
JUST BECAUSE OF THE NEWS EVERY
DAY.
FRONT OF THE PAPER.
YOU KNOW, THE THING IS THAT, YOU
KNOW, THIS -- THESE KIND OF
QUESTIONS, THIS LINE OF
QUESTIONING, IS EXACTLY WHY WE
HAVE PROBLEMS AS REPORTERS
GETTING NEWSMAKERS TO COME IN
AND TALK TO US.
>> IT'S A GOOD POINT.
>> AND I THINK, YOU KNOW, I
DON'T WANT TO BE CRITICAL, CHRIS
MATTHEWS, I KNOW HE IS DOING HIS
JOB.
I KNOW HE IS TRYING TO GET AN
ANSWER, BUT TO HAVE THAT TAKEN
OUT, YOU KNOW, TWO OR THREE
SECONDS AND PORTRAYED AS WHAT HE
SAID, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE TO TAKE
IT IN CONTEXT.
>> IF YOU LISTEN CAREFULLY,
THOSE ARE THE AIDES OF O'CONOR
SMACKING THEIR HANDS AGAINST
THEIR HEADS BECAUSE THEY REALIZE
THIS IS NOW THE TURNING POINT IN
THIS RACE.
THE KIND OF VOTER WHO TURNS OUT
IN THE SPECIAL ELECTION TENDS TO
BE YOUR MOST PARTISAN TYPE OF
VOTER, AND THIS IS A REPUBLICAN.
I CAN ASSURE YOU REPUBLICAN PART
ZPLANS HATE TO SEE PELOSI.
INDEPENDENTS JUST AS LIKELY.
REPUBLICAN PARTISANS HATE HER.
O'CONOR WAS RUNNING A GOOD RACE.
THIS IS A PIVOT POINT.
HE IS IN TROUBLE BECAUSE OF
THIS.
>> I AGREE WITH MARKUP TO THIS
POINT.
I THINK O'CONOR HAS RUN A
SURPRISINGLY GOOD RACE, AND IT
WAS GOOD UP UNTIL THIS POINT.
THEN I HAVE TO GO WITH JOE.
HE SHOULD HAVE BEEN PREPARED FOR
THIS.
>> I AGREE.
>> HE WASN'T PREPARED TO GET
PRESSED FOUR OR FIVE TIMES.
>> RIGHT.
>> HE DIDN'T SAY -- THEN, YOU
KNOW, HE USES THAT KIND OF
INTERVIEW.
WHEN I PREPARE SOMEONE FOR THAT
SHOW, I LET THEM KNOW -- HE IS A
FORMER AIDE.
HE LOVES TO PUSH THAT.
>> HE PUSHES YOU.
YOU STILL -- IF YOU ARE GOING ON
THE SHOW, HE STILL SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR IT.
>> YOU HAVE A ONE-WORD ANSWER.
YOU LET IT GO.
>> UP TO THIS WEEK DONALD TRUMP
FULLY ENDORSED TROY BALDERSON.
HE TWEETED OUT EARLIER THIS WEEK
THAT HE HAD -- TROY BALDERSON --
HAD HIS FULL AND TOTAL
ENDORSEMENT, AND THEN AGAIN ON
FRIDAY HE HAS REPEATED THAT HE
HAS HIS FULL AND TOTAL
ENDORSEMENT.
JESSE BALDERSON, IN PLACE OF HIS
HAT AND KIND OF ENDORSEMENT.
HOW DOES DONALD TRUMP
ENDORSEMENT HELP OR HURT TROY
BALDERSON IN THIS DISTRICT?
>> WELL, THAT ENDORSEMENT IS
TWICE AS NICE.
I THINK IT HELPS HIM.
THIS IS A DISTRICT THAT WENT FOR
DONALD TRUMP BY 11 PERCENTAGE
POINTS.
A LITTLE MORE THAN THE STATE
AVERAGE OF 8 PERCENTAGE POINTS.
IT IS A DISTRICT WHERE THERE ARE
RURAL VOTERS IN ADDITION TO YOUR
SUBURBAN NORTHERN COLUMBUS
SUBURBS UP TO DELAWARE COUNTY,
WHICH IS JUST A CONSISTENT
REPUBLICAN STRONGHOLD.
IT'S INTERESTING THAT THIS RACE
IS COMPETITIVE AT ALL GIVEN JUST
HOW STRONG OF THE GOP DISTRICT
IT IS, BUT I THINK THE PRESIDENT
IS STILL POPULAR THERE.
THE ONE CAVAT TO THAT BEING IS
THERE IS SOME POLLING OR
PROGNOSTICATING ABOUT SUBURBAN
WOMEN BEING LIKELY -- THAT IS A
DEMOGRAPHIC THAT IS IN THE 12th
DISTRICT.
PERHAPS MORE SO THAN OTHER PARTS
OF THE STATE.
THOSE VOTERS AND I THINK DANNY
O'CONOR, THE DEMOCRAT, IS GOING
AFTER THOSE VOTERS AS PEOPLE WHO
MIGHT BE A LITTLE CONCERNED
ABOUT TRUMP'S TWEETS AND HIS
TONE AND HE IS ALSO GOING AFTER
THOSE ENTHUSIASTIC DEMOCRATS WHO
CAN'T STAND TRUMP BEING IN THE
WHITE HOUSE.
>> IF REPUBLICANS JUST LIKE
NANCY PELOSI, DEMOCRATS
CERTAINLY DISLIKE DONALD TRUMP.
COULD THIS FURTHER ENERGIZE
DEMOCRATIC --
>> IF O'CONOR WINS THIS RACE, IT
WILL BE BECAUSE OF DEMOCRAT
ENERGY AGAINST DONALD TRUMP.
I DON'T THINK THERE'S ENOUGH TO
DO THAT, AND I THINK THIS WOULD
NOT BE GETTING OUR ATTENTION IF
IT WERE ELECTION IN THE FALL.
OF COURSE, IT WILL BE AGAIN IN
THE FALL.
SPECIAL ELECTIONS GET MORE
ATTENTION BECAUSE THEY'RE THE
ONLY ONES OUT THERE TO COVER.
HAVING SAID THAT, I THINK
BALDERSON WINS THIS RACE.
>> O'CONOR HAS ALREADY WON.
THE DEMOCRATS HAVE ALREADY WON.
THEY MAY LOSE THE ELECTION, BUT
THEY TOOK A DISTRICT WITH AN 11
POINT THAT TRUMP HAD, AND THEY
MADE IT COMPETITIVE.
COME ON.
>> WE'LL TAKE THE SEAT.
>> THAT'S TRUE.
TIM RYAN CAME OUT EARLIER THIS
YEAR AND SAID DEMOCRATS NEED TO
STOP RELYING ON MORAL VICTORY.
>> I KNOW WHO HE IS.
>> ONE THING TO LOOK AT, LET'S
LOOK AT THE NUMBERS IN THE
PRIMARY.
BEFORE ELECTION DAY, DEMOCRAT
ABSENTEE BALLOTS WERE 50%.
THE REPUBLICANS WERE 43%.
THEN WHEN YOU LOOKED AT IT AFTER
ELECTION DAY AND YOU SAW THE
TOTAL, THEN THE REPUBLICANS HAD
51.7%, AND THE DEMOCRATS HAD
43%.
>> THIS IS THE PRIMARY?
>> THIS WAS THE PRIMARY THIS
YEAR.
WHEN YOU ARE LOOKING AT THOSE
NUMBERS, YOU'VE GOT TO THINK,
YOU KNOW, MAYBE THE REPUBLICANS
HAVEN'T SPOKEN YET.
WE'RE SEEING THESE EARLY
NUMBERS, BUT IT MIGHT BE NOT --
>> THEY TEND TO VOTE ON ELECTION
DAY.
THERE ARE A LOT MORE CANDIDATES
IN THAT PRIMARY TOO FOR
REPUBLICANS, BUT THIS IS THE
FIRST GAME OF A DOUBLE-HEADER,
AND WE'LL DO IT ALL AGAIN IN THE
FALL.
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