ONE WEEK TO GO BEFORE WE KNOW
  WHO THEY'LL SELL OUT THE REST OF
  PAT TIBERI's SEAT— DEMOCRATS DANIEL O'CNNOR
  AND REPUBLICAN TROY BALDERSON ARE
  LOOKING TO REPLACE HIM WHO LEFT
  CONGRESS LAST WINTER.
  KYLE, THE VETERAN POLITICAL
  PROGRESS NOS INDICATOR OF THE
  CRYSTAL BALL SAYS THEY HAVE
  REPUBLICANS TO A TOSS-UP.
  IT POINTS TO EARLY VOTING TRENDS
  AS ONE REASON FOR HIS CHANGE.
  O'CONOR, MEANWHILE, RAN INTO A
  BIT OF TROUBLE ON NATIONAL TV
  THIS WEEK.
  HE WAS ASKED ABOUT HIS REFUSAL
  TO SUPPORT HOUSE SPEAKER NANCY
  PELOSI.
  >> WHO ARE YOU GOING TO VOTE FOR
  FOR SPEAKER?
  >> I DON'T KNOW WHO IS GOING TO
  RUN.
  >> ONCE HE IS RUNNING FOR
  RE-ELECTION --
  >> WE NEED CHANGE.
  >> YOU'RE NOT VOTING FOR PELOSI.
  >> NO.
  >> YOU HAVE TO TAKE WUCHT
  VOETSDS.
  WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO?
  IF YOU ARE ONE OF THE 218 THAT
  NEED TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE
  HOUSE, AND THE VOLUNTARY ET IS
  PELL OSY, WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO
  DO?
  >> YOU DON'T GET CONTROL OF THE
  HOUSE.
  IT'S A DECISIVE VOTE, WHICH YOU
  VOTE AGAINST PELOSI?
  IF IT'S DECISIVE.
  YOU KNOW YOU HAVE TO DECIDE
  THIS.
  TELL ME YOU KNOW YOU HAVE TO
  DECIDE IT.
  >> WE NEED NEW LEADERSHIP.
  >> TELL ME YOU KNOW --
  >> THE OLD WAYS AREN'T WORKING.
  >> YOU KNOW THAT THE DEMOCRATS
  CAN GET CONTROL.
  YOU HAVE TO HAVE 218 MEMBERS OF
  THE HOUSE VOTE FOR THE CANDIDATE
  OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY FOR
  SPEAKER.
  WOULD YOU DO THAT?
  >> THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY.
  >> THANK YOU.
  >> DANNY O'CONOR.
  >> HARDBALL THERE.
  >> DID YOU NOT CATCH THAT?
  HE BASICALLY ADMITS THAT HE
  COULD VOTE FOR PELOSI IF IT WAS
  BETWEEN HER AND THE REPUBLICAN
  FOR SPEAKER.
  >> HOW MUCH DO THE VOTERS IN THE
  12th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
  REALLY CARE ABOUT NANCY PELOSI
  OR THE OTHER SPEAKER -- JIM
  JORDAN, WHO WILL BE SPEAKER ON
  THE REPUBLICAN SIDE?
  >> YOU KNOW, THAT'S A GOOD
  QUESTION.
  >> I LEAR A LITTLE MORE OF THAT
  JUST BECAUSE OF THE NEWS EVERY
  DAY.
  FRONT OF THE PAPER.
  YOU KNOW, THE THING IS THAT, YOU
  KNOW, THIS -- THESE KIND OF
  QUESTIONS, THIS LINE OF
  QUESTIONING, IS EXACTLY WHY WE
  HAVE PROBLEMS AS REPORTERS
  GETTING NEWSMAKERS TO COME IN
  AND TALK TO US.
  >> IT'S A GOOD POINT.
  >> AND I THINK, YOU KNOW, I
  DON'T WANT TO BE CRITICAL, CHRIS
  MATTHEWS, I KNOW HE IS DOING HIS
  JOB.
  I KNOW HE IS TRYING TO GET AN
  ANSWER, BUT TO HAVE THAT TAKEN
  OUT, YOU KNOW, TWO OR THREE
  SECONDS AND PORTRAYED AS WHAT HE
  SAID, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE TO TAKE
  IT IN CONTEXT.
  >> IF YOU LISTEN CAREFULLY,
  THOSE ARE THE AIDES OF O'CONOR
  SMACKING THEIR HANDS AGAINST
  THEIR HEADS BECAUSE THEY REALIZE
  THIS IS NOW THE TURNING POINT IN
  THIS RACE.
  THE KIND OF VOTER WHO TURNS OUT
  IN THE SPECIAL ELECTION TENDS TO
  BE YOUR MOST PARTISAN TYPE OF
  VOTER, AND THIS IS A REPUBLICAN.
  I CAN ASSURE YOU REPUBLICAN PART
  ZPLANS HATE TO SEE PELOSI.
  INDEPENDENTS JUST AS LIKELY.
  REPUBLICAN PARTISANS HATE HER.
  O'CONOR WAS RUNNING A GOOD RACE.
  THIS IS A PIVOT POINT.
  HE IS IN TROUBLE BECAUSE OF
  THIS.
  >> I AGREE WITH MARKUP TO THIS
  POINT.
  I THINK O'CONOR HAS RUN A
  SURPRISINGLY GOOD RACE, AND IT
  WAS GOOD UP UNTIL THIS POINT.
  THEN I HAVE TO GO WITH JOE.
  HE SHOULD HAVE BEEN PREPARED FOR
  THIS.
  >> I AGREE.
  >> HE WASN'T PREPARED TO GET
  PRESSED FOUR OR FIVE TIMES.
  >> RIGHT.
  >> HE DIDN'T SAY -- THEN, YOU
  KNOW, HE USES THAT KIND OF
  INTERVIEW.
  WHEN I PREPARE SOMEONE FOR THAT
  SHOW, I LET THEM KNOW -- HE IS A
  FORMER AIDE.
  HE LOVES TO PUSH THAT.
  >> HE PUSHES YOU.
  YOU STILL -- IF YOU ARE GOING ON
  THE SHOW, HE STILL SHOULD BE
  PREPARED FOR IT.
  >> YOU HAVE A ONE-WORD ANSWER.
  YOU LET IT GO.
  >> UP TO THIS WEEK DONALD TRUMP
  FULLY ENDORSED TROY BALDERSON.
  HE TWEETED OUT EARLIER THIS WEEK
  THAT HE HAD -- TROY BALDERSON --
  HAD HIS FULL AND TOTAL
  ENDORSEMENT, AND THEN AGAIN ON
  FRIDAY HE HAS REPEATED THAT HE
  HAS HIS FULL AND TOTAL
  ENDORSEMENT.
  JESSE BALDERSON, IN PLACE OF HIS
  HAT AND KIND OF ENDORSEMENT.
  HOW DOES DONALD TRUMP
  ENDORSEMENT HELP OR HURT TROY
  BALDERSON IN THIS DISTRICT?
  >> WELL, THAT ENDORSEMENT IS
  TWICE AS NICE.
  I THINK IT HELPS HIM.
  THIS IS A DISTRICT THAT WENT FOR
  DONALD TRUMP BY 11 PERCENTAGE
  POINTS.
  A LITTLE MORE THAN THE STATE
  AVERAGE OF 8 PERCENTAGE POINTS.
  IT IS A DISTRICT WHERE THERE ARE
  RURAL VOTERS IN ADDITION TO YOUR
  SUBURBAN NORTHERN COLUMBUS
  SUBURBS UP TO DELAWARE COUNTY,
  WHICH IS JUST A CONSISTENT
  REPUBLICAN STRONGHOLD.
  IT'S INTERESTING THAT THIS RACE
  IS COMPETITIVE AT ALL GIVEN JUST
  HOW STRONG OF THE GOP DISTRICT
  IT IS, BUT I THINK THE PRESIDENT
  IS STILL POPULAR THERE.
  THE ONE CAVAT TO THAT BEING IS
  THERE IS SOME POLLING OR
  PROGNOSTICATING ABOUT SUBURBAN
  WOMEN BEING LIKELY -- THAT IS A
  DEMOGRAPHIC THAT IS IN THE 12th
  DISTRICT.
  PERHAPS MORE SO THAN OTHER PARTS
  OF THE STATE.
  THOSE VOTERS AND I THINK DANNY
  O'CONOR, THE DEMOCRAT, IS GOING
  AFTER THOSE VOTERS AS PEOPLE WHO
  MIGHT BE A LITTLE CONCERNED
  ABOUT TRUMP'S TWEETS AND HIS
  TONE AND HE IS ALSO GOING AFTER
  THOSE ENTHUSIASTIC DEMOCRATS WHO
  CAN'T STAND TRUMP BEING IN THE
  WHITE HOUSE.
  >> IF REPUBLICANS JUST LIKE
  NANCY PELOSI, DEMOCRATS
  CERTAINLY DISLIKE DONALD TRUMP.
  COULD THIS FURTHER ENERGIZE
  DEMOCRATIC --
  >> IF O'CONOR WINS THIS RACE, IT
  WILL BE BECAUSE OF DEMOCRAT
  ENERGY AGAINST DONALD TRUMP.
  I DON'T THINK THERE'S ENOUGH TO
  DO THAT, AND I THINK THIS WOULD
  NOT BE GETTING OUR ATTENTION IF
  IT WERE ELECTION IN THE FALL.
  OF COURSE, IT WILL BE AGAIN IN
  THE FALL.
  SPECIAL ELECTIONS GET MORE
  ATTENTION BECAUSE THEY'RE THE
  ONLY ONES OUT THERE TO COVER.
  HAVING SAID THAT, I THINK
  BALDERSON WINS THIS RACE.
  >> O'CONOR HAS ALREADY WON.
  THE DEMOCRATS HAVE ALREADY WON.
  THEY MAY LOSE THE ELECTION, BUT
  THEY TOOK A DISTRICT WITH AN 11
  POINT THAT TRUMP HAD, AND THEY
  MADE IT COMPETITIVE.
  COME ON.
  >> WE'LL TAKE THE SEAT.
  >> THAT'S TRUE.
  TIM RYAN CAME OUT EARLIER THIS
  YEAR AND SAID DEMOCRATS NEED TO
  STOP RELYING ON MORAL VICTORY.
  >> I KNOW WHO HE IS.
  >> ONE THING TO LOOK AT, LET'S
  LOOK AT THE NUMBERS IN THE
  PRIMARY.
  BEFORE ELECTION DAY, DEMOCRAT
  ABSENTEE BALLOTS WERE 50%.
  THE REPUBLICANS WERE 43%.
  THEN WHEN YOU LOOKED AT IT AFTER
  ELECTION DAY AND YOU SAW THE
  TOTAL, THEN THE REPUBLICANS HAD
  51.7%, AND THE DEMOCRATS HAD
  43%.
  >> THIS IS THE PRIMARY?
  >> THIS WAS THE PRIMARY THIS
  YEAR.
  WHEN YOU ARE LOOKING AT THOSE
  NUMBERS, YOU'VE GOT TO THINK,
  YOU KNOW, MAYBE THE REPUBLICANS
  HAVEN'T SPOKEN YET.
  WE'RE SEEING THESE EARLY
  NUMBERS, BUT IT MIGHT BE NOT --
  >> THEY TEND TO VOTE ON ELECTION
  DAY.
  THERE ARE A LOT MORE CANDIDATES
  IN THAT PRIMARY TOO FOR
  REPUBLICANS, BUT THIS IS THE
  FIRST GAME OF A DOUBLE-HEADER,
  AND WE'LL DO IT ALL AGAIN IN THE
  FALL.
  
        
      
 
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