Monetary policy is the process by which the monetary authority of a country, like the
central bank or currency board, controls the supply of money, often targeting an inflation
rate or interest rateto ensure price stability and general trust in the currency.
Further goals of a monetary policy are usually to contribute to economic growth and stability,
to lower unemployment, and to maintain predictable exchange rates with other currencies.
Monetary economics provides insight into how to craft an optimal monetary policy. Since
the 1970s, monetary policy has generally been formed separately from fiscal policy, which
refers to taxation, government spending, and associated borrowing.
Monetary policy is referred to as either being expansionary or contractionary. Expansionary
policy is when a monetary authority uses its tools to stimulate the economy. An expansionary
policy increases the total supply of money in the economy more rapidly than usual. It
is traditionally used to try to combat unemployment in a recession by lowering interest rates
in the hope that easy credit will entice businesses into expanding. Also, this increases the aggregate
demand (the overall demand for all goods and services in an economy), which boosts growth
as measured by gross domestic product (GDP). Expansionary monetary policy usually diminishes
the value of the currency, thereby decreasing the exchange rate.
The opposite of expansionary monetary policy is contractionary monetary policy, which slows
the rate of growth in the money supply or even shrinks it. This slows economic growth
to prevent inflation. Contractionary monetary policy can lead to increased unemployment
and depressed borrowing and spending by consumers and businesses, which can eventually result
in an economic recession; it should hence be well managed and conducted with care.
History: Monetary policy is associated with interest
rates and availability of credit. Instruments of monetary policy have included short-term
interest rates and bank reserves through the monetary base.For many centuries there were
only two forms of monetary policy: (i) Decisions about coinage; (ii) Decisions to print paper
money to create credit. Interest rates, while now thought of as part of monetary authority,
were not generally coordinated with the other forms of monetary policy during this time.
Monetary policy was seen as an executive decision, and was generally in the hands of the authority
with seigniorage, or the power to coin. With the advent of larger trading networks came
the ability to set the price between gold and silver, and the price of the local currency
to foreign currencies. This official price could be enforced by law, even if it varied
from the market price. Paper money called "jiaozi" originated from
promissory notes in 7th century China. Jiaozi did not replace metallic currency, and were
used alongside the copper coins. The successive Yuan Dynastywas the first government to use
paper currency as the predominant circulating medium. In the later course of the dynasty,
facing massive shortages of specie to fund war and their rule in China, they began printing
paper money without restrictions, resulting in hyperinflation.
With the creation of the Bank of England in 1694, which acquired the responsibility to
print notes and back them with gold, the idea of monetary policy as independent of executive
action began to be established. The goal of monetary policy was to maintain the value
of the coinage, print notes which would trade at par to specie, and prevent coins from leaving
circulation. The establishment of central banks by industrializing nations was associated
then with the desire to maintain the nation's peg to the gold standard, and to trade in
a narrow band with other gold-backed currencies. To accomplish this end, central banks as part
of the gold standard began setting the interest rates that they charged, both their own borrowers,
and other banks who required liquidity. The maintenance of a gold standard required almost
monthly adjustments of interest rates. The gold standard is a system under which the
price of the national currency is measured in units of gold bars and is kept constant
by the government's promise to buy or sell gold at a fixed price in terms of the base
currency. The gold standard might be regarded as a special case of "fixed exchange rate"
policy, or as a special type of commodity price level targeting. Nowadays this type
of monetary policy is no longer used by any country.
During the period 1870–1920, the industrialized nations set up central banking systems, with
one of the last being the Federal Reserve in 1913. By this point the role of the central
bank as the "lender of last resort" was understood. It was also increasingly understood that interest
rates had an effect on the entire economy, in no small part because of the marginal revolution
in economics, which demonstrated how people would change a decision based on a change
in the economic trade-offs. Monetarist economists long contended that
the money-supply growth could affect the macroeconomy. These included Milton Friedman who early in
his career advocated that government budget deficits during recessions be financed in
equal amount by money creation to help to stimulate aggregate demand for output. Later
he advocated simply increasing the monetary supply at a low, constant rate, as the best
way of maintaining low inflation and stable output growth. However, when U.S. Federal
Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker tried this policy, starting in October 1979, it was found to
be impractical, because of the highly unstable relationship between monetary aggregates and
other macroeconomic variables. Even Milton Friedman later acknowledged that direct money
supply targeting was less successful than he had hoped.
Therefore, monetary decisions today take into account a wider range of factors, such as:
short-term interest rates; long-term interest rates;
velocity of money through the economy; exchange rates;
credit quality; bonds and equities (debt and corporate
ownership); government versus private sector spending/savings;
international capital flows of money on large scales;
financial derivatives such as options, swaps, futures contracts, etc.
Monetary policy instruments: Conventional instrument:
The central bank influences interest rates by expanding or contracting the monetary base,
which consists of currency in circulation and banks' reserves on deposit at the central
bank. Central banks have three main tools of monetary policy: open market operations,
the discount rate and the reserve requirements. The most commonly usedIs it true? tool by
which the central bank can affect the monetary base is by open market operations. This entails
managing the quantity of money in circulation through the buying and selling of various
financial instruments, such as treasury bills, company bonds, or foreign currencies, in exchange
for money on deposit at the central bank. Those deposits are convertible to currency,
so all of these purchases or sales result in more or less base currency entering or
leaving market circulation. For example, if the central bank wishes to lower interest
rates (executing expansionary monetary policy), it purchases government debt, thereby increasing
the amount of cash in circulation or crediting banks' reserve accounts. Commercial banks
then have more money to lend, so they reduce lending rates, making loans less expensive.
Cheaper credit card interest rates boost consumer spending. Additionally, when business loans
are more affordable, companies can expand to keep up with consumer demand. They ultimately
hire more workers, whose incomes rise, which in its turn also increases the demand. This
tool is usually enough to stimulate demand and drive economic growth to a healthy rate.
Usually, the short-term goal of open market operations is to achieve a specific short-term
interest rate target. In other instances, monetary policy might instead entail the targeting
of a specific exchange rate relative to some foreign currency or else relative to gold.
For example, in the case of the USA the Federal Reservetargets the federal funds rate, the
rate at which member banks lend to one another overnight; however, the monetary policy of
China is to target the exchange rate between the Chinese renminbi and a basket of foreign
currencies. If the open market operations do not lead
to the desired effects, a second tool can be used: the central bank can increase or
decrease the interest rate it charges on discounts or overdrafts (loans from the central bank
to commercial banks, see discount window). If the interest rate on such transactions
is sufficiently low, commercial banks can borrow from the central bank to meet reserve
requirements and use the additional liquidity to expand their balance sheets, increasing
the credit available to the economy. A third alternative is to change the reserve
requirements. The reserve requirement refers to the proportion of total assets that banks
must keep on hand overnight, either in its vaults or at the central bank. Banks only
maintain a small portion of their assets as cash available for immediate withdrawal; the
rest is invested in illiquid assets like mortgages and loans. Lowering the reserve requirement
frees up funds for banks to increase loans or buy other profitable assets. This is expansionary
because it creates credit. However, even though this tool immediately increases liquidity,
central banks rarely change the reserve requirement because it is expensive and requires a lot
of new policies and procedures, disrupting member banks. The use of open market operations
is therefore preferred. Unconventional monetary policy at the zero
bound: Other forms of monetary policy, particularly
used when interest rates are at or near 0% and there are concerns about deflation or
deflation is occurring, are referred to as unconventional monetary policy. These include
credit easing, quantitative easing, forward guidance, and signaling. In credit easing,
a central bank purchases private sector assets to improve liquidity and improve access to
credit. Signaling can be used to lower market expectations for lower interest rates in the
future. For example, during the credit crisis of 2008, the US Federal Reserve indicated
rates would be low for an "extended period", and the Bank of Canada made a "conditional
commitment" to keep rates at the lower bound of 25 basis points (0.25%) until the end of
the second quarter of 2010. Further heterodox monetary policy proposals
include the idea of helicopter money whereby central banks would create money without assets
as counterpart in their balance sheet. The money created could be distributed directly
to the population as a citizen's dividend. This option has been increasingly discussed
since March 2016 after the ECB's president Mario Draghi said he found the concept "very
interesting". Nominal anchors:
A nominal anchor for monetary policy is a single variable or device which the central
bank uses to pin down expectations of private agents about the nominal price level or its
path or about what the central bank might do with respect to achieving that path. Monetary
regimes combine long-run nominal anchoring with flexibility in the short run. Nominal
variables used as anchors primarily include exchange rate targets, money supply targets,
and inflation targets with interest rate policy. Types:
In practice, to implement any type of monetary policy the main tool used is modifying the
amount of base money in circulation. The monetary authority does this by buying or selling financial
assets (usually government obligations). These open market operations change either the amount
of money or its liquidity (if less liquid forms of money are bought or sold). The multiplier
effect of fractional reserve banking amplifies the effects of these actions.
Constant market transactions by the monetary authority modify the supply of currency and
this impacts other market variables such as short-term interest rates and the exchange
rate. The distinction between the various types
of monetary policy lies primarily with the set of instruments and target variables that
are used by the monetary authority to achieve their goals.
The different types of policy are also called monetary regimes, in parallel to exchange-rate
regimes. A fixed exchange rate is also an exchange-rate regime; The Gold standard results
in a relatively fixed regime towards the currency of other countries on the gold standard and
a floating regime towards those that are not. Targeting inflation, the price level or other
monetary aggregates implies floating exchange rate unless the management of the relevant
foreign currencies is tracking exactly the same variables (such as a harmonized consumer
price index). In economics, an expansionary fiscal policy
includes higher spending and tax cuts, that encourage economic growth. In turn, an expansionary
monetary policy is one that seeks to increase the size of the money supply. As usual, inciting
of money supply is aimed at lowering the interest rates on purpose to achieve economic growth
by increase of economic activity. Conversely, contractionary monetary policy seeks to reduce
the size of the money supply. In most nations, monetary policy is controlled by either a
central bank or a finance ministry. Neoclassical and Keynesian economics significantly differ
on the effects and effectiveness of monetary policy on influencing the real economy; there
is no clear consensus on how monetary policy affects real economic variables (aggregate
output or income, employment). Both economic schools accept that monetary policy affects
monetary variables (price levels, interest rates).
Inflation targeting: Under this policy approach the target is to
keep inflation, under a particular definition such as Consumer Price Index, within a desired
range. The inflation target is achieved through periodic
adjustments to the central bank interest rate target. The interest rate used is generally
the overnight rate at which banks lend to each other overnight for cash flow purposes.
Depending on the country this particular interest rate might be called the cash rate or something
similar. As the Fisher effect model explains, the equation
linking inflation with interest rates (both foreign and abroad) is the following:
π = i - r where π is the inflation at home, i is the
home interest rate set by the central bank, and r is the world real interest rate. Using
i as an anchor, central banks can influence π. Central banks can choose to maintain a
fixed interest rates at all times, or to keep a constant interest rate until the real world
interest rate changes. The duration of this policy varies, because of the simplicity associated
with changing the nominal interest rate. The interest rate target is maintained for
a specific duration using open market operations. Typically the duration that the interest rate
target is kept constant will vary between months and years. This interest rate target
is usually reviewed on a monthly or quarterly basis by a policy committee.
Changes to the interest rate target are made in response to various market indicators in
an attempt to forecast economic trends and in so doing keep the market on track towards
achieving the defined inflation target. For example, one simple method of inflation targeting
called the Taylor rule adjusts the interest rate in response to changes in the inflation
rate and the output gap. The rule was proposed by John B. Taylor of Stanford University.
The inflation targeting approach to monetary policy approach was pioneered in New Zealand.
It has been used in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, the Czech Republic, Hungary,
New Zealand, Norway, Iceland, India, Philippines, Poland, Sweden, South Africa, Turkey, and
the United Kingdom. Price level targeting:
Price level targeting is a monetary policy that is similar to inflation targeting except
that CPI growth in one year over or under the long term price level target is offset
in subsequent years such that a targeted price-level is reached over time, e.g. five years, giving
more certainty about future price increases to consumers. Under inflation targeting what
happened in the immediate past years is not taken into account or adjusted for in the
current and future years. Uncertainty in price levels can create uncertainty
around price and wage setting activity for firms and workers, and undermines any information
that can be gained from relative prices, as it is more difficult for firms to determine
if a change in the price of a good or service is because of inflation or other factors,
such as an increase in the efficiency of factors of production, if inflation is high and volatile.
An increase in inflation also leads to a decrease in the demand for money, as it reduces the
incentive to hold money and increases transaction costs and shoe leather costs.
Monetary aggregates/money supply targeting: In the 1980s, several countries used an approach
based on a constant growth in the money supply. This approach was refined to include different
classes of money and credit (M0, M1 etc.). In the US this approach to monetary policy
was discontinued with the selection of Alan Greenspan as Fed Chairman.
This approach is also sometimes called monetarism. Central banks might choose to set a money
supply growth target as a nominal anchor to keep prices stable in the long term. The quantity
theory, is a long run model, which links price levels to money supply and demand. Using this
equation, we can rearrange to see the following: Π = μ − g
Where π is the inflation, μ is the money supply growth rate and g is the real output
growth. This equation suggests that controlling the money supply's growth rate can ultimately
lead to price stability in the long run. To use this nominal anchor, a central bank would
need to set μ equal to a constant and commit to maintaining this target.
However, the money supply growth rate is considered a weak policy, because there is no way to
target real output growth, As a result, a higher output growth rate will result in a
too low level of inflation. A low output growth rate will result in inflation that would be
higher than the desired level. While monetary policy typically focuses on
a price signal of one form or another, this approach is focused on monetary quantities.
As these quantities could have a role on the economy and business cycles depending on the
households' risk aversion level, money is sometimes explicitly added in the central
bank's reaction function. Recently, however, central banks are shifting away from policies
that focus on money supply targeting, because of the uncertainty that real output growth
introduces. Some central banks, like the ECB, are choosing to combine money supply anchor
with other targets. Nominal income/NGDP targeting:
Related to money targeting, nominal income targeting (also called Nominal GDP or NGDP
targeting) originally proposed by James Meade (1978) and James Tobin (1980) was advocated
by Scott Sumner and reinforced by the market monetarist school of thought.
Central banks do not implement this monetary policy explicitly. However, numerous studies
shown that such a monetary policy targeting better matches welfare optimizing monetary
policy compared to more standard monetary policy targeting.
Fixed exchange rate targeting: This policy is based on maintaining a fixed
exchange rate with a foreign currency. There are varying degrees of fixed exchange rates,
which can be ranked in relation to how rigid the fixed exchange rate is with the anchor
nation. Under a system of fiat fixed rates, the local
government or monetary authority declares a fixed exchange rate but does not actively
buy or sell currency to maintain the rate. Instead, the rate is enforced by non-convertibility
measures (e.g. capital controls, import/export licenses, etc.). In this case there is a black
market exchange rate where the currency trades at its market/unofficial rate.
Under a system of fixed-convertibility, currency is bought and sold by the central bank or
monetary authority on a daily basis to achieve the target exchange rate. This target rate
may be a fixed level or a fixed band within which the exchange rate may fluctuate until
the monetary authority intervenes to buy or sell as necessary to maintain the exchange
rate within the band. (In this case, the fixed exchange rate with a fixed level can be seen
as a special case of the fixed exchange rate with bands where the bands are set to zero.)
Under a system of fixed exchange rates maintained by a currency board every unit of local currency
must be backed by a unit of foreign currency (correcting for the exchange rate). This ensures
that the local monetary base does not inflate without being backed by hard currency and
eliminates any worries about a run on the local currency by those wishing to convert
the local currency to the hard (anchor) currency. Under dollarization, foreign currency (usually
the US dollar, hence the term "dollarization") is used freely as the medium of exchange either
exclusively or in parallel with local currency. This outcome can come about because the local
population has lost all faith in the local currency, or it may also be a policy of the
government (usually to rein in inflation and import credible monetary policy).
With a strict fixed exchange rate or a peg, the rate of depreciation of the exchange rate
is set equal to zero, such as in currency unions. In the case of a crawling peg, the
rate is set equal to constant. With a limited flexible band, the rate of depreciation is
allowed to fluctuate within a given range. By fixing the rate of depreciation, PPP theory
concludes that the home country's inflation rate must depend on the foreign country. For
example, a two percent increase in inflation at home raises the foreign country's inflation
by two percent. Countries may decide to use a fixed exchange rate monetary regime in order
to take advantage of price stability and control inflation. In practice, more than half of
nation's monetary regimes use fixed exchange rate anchoring.
These policies often abdicate monetary policy to the foreign monetary authority or government
as monetary policy in the pegging nation must align with monetary policy in the anchor nation
to maintain the exchange rate. The degree to which local monetary policy becomes dependent
on the anchor nation depends on factors such as capital mobility, openness, credit channels
and other economic factors. In practice:
Following the collapse of Bretton Woods, nominal anchoring has grown in importance for monetary
policy makers and inflation reduction. Particularly, governments sought to use anchoring in order
to curtail rapid and high inflation during the 1970s and 1980s. By the 1990s, countries
began to explicitly set credible nominal anchors. In addition, many countries chose a mix of
more than one target, as well as implicit targets. As a result, global inflation rates
have, on average, decreased gradually since the 1970s and central banks have gained credibility
and increasing independence. The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 has sparked
controversy over the use and flexibility of inflation nominal anchoring. Many economists
argue that inflation targets are currently set too low by many monetary regimes. During
the crisis, many inflation anchoring countries reached the lower bound of zero rates, resulting
in inflation rates decreasing to almost zero or even deflation.
Implications: The anchors discussed in this article suggest
that keeping inflation at the desired level is feasible by setting a target interest rate,
money supply growth rate, price level, or rate of depreciation. However, these anchors
are only valid if a central bank commits to maintaining them. This, in turn, requires
that the central bank abandons their monetary policy autonomy in the long run. Should a
central bank use one of these anchors to maintain a target inflation rate, they would have to
forfeit using other policies. On that note, it is important to mention that using these
anchors may prove more complicated for certain exchange rate regimes. Freely floating or
managed floating regimes, have more options to affect their inflation, because they enjoy
more flexibility than a pegged currency or a country without a currency. The latter regimes
would have to implement an exchange rate target to influence their inflation, as none of the
other instruments are available to them. Credibility:
The short-term effects of monetary policy can be influenced by the degree to which announcements
of new policy are deemed credible. In particular, when an anti-inflation policy is announced
by a central bank, in the absence of credibility in the eyes of the public inflationary expectations
will not drop, and the short-run effect of the announcement and a subsequent sustained
anti-inflation policy is likely to be a combination of somewhat lower inflation and higher unemployment
(see Phillips curve#NAIRU and rational expectations). But if the policy announcement is deemed credible,
inflationary expectations will drop commensurately with the announced policy intent, and inflation
is likely to come down more quickly and without so much of a cost in terms of unemployment.
Thus there can be an advantage to having the central bank be independent of the political
authority, to shield it from the prospect of political pressure to reverse the direction
of the policy. But even with a seemingly independent central bank, a central bank whose hands are
not tied to the anti-inflation policy might be deemed as not fully credible; in this case
there is an advantage to be had by the central bank being in some way bound to follow through
on its policy pronouncements, lending it credibility. Contexts:
In international economics: Optimal monetary policy in international economics
is concerned with the question of how monetary policy should be conducted in interdependent
open economies. The classical view holds that international macroeconomic interdependence
is only relevant if it affects domestic output gaps and inflation, and monetary policy prescriptions
can abstract from openness without harm. This view rests on two implicit assumptions: a
high responsiveness of import prices to the exchange rate, i.e. producer currency pricing
(PCP), and frictionless international financial markets supporting the efficiency of flexible
price allocation. The violation or distortion of these assumptions found in empirical research
is the subject of a substantial part of the international optimal monetary policy literature.
The policy trade-offs specific to this international perspective are threefold:
First, research suggests only a weak reflection of exchange rate movements in import prices,
lending credibility to the opposed theory of local currency pricing (LCP). The consequence
is a departure from the classical view in the form of a trade-off between output gaps
and misalignments in international relative prices, shifting monetary policy to CPI inflation
control and real exchange rate stabilization. Second, another specificity of international
optimal monetary policy is the issue of strategic interactions and competitive devaluations,
which is due to cross-border spillovers in quantities and prices. Therein, the national
authorities of different countries face incentives to manipulate the terms of trade to increase
national welfare in the absence of international policy coordination. Even though the gains
of international policy coordination might be small, such gains may become very relevant
if balanced against incentives for international noncooperation.
Third, open economies face policy trade-offs if asset market distortions prevent global
efficient allocation. Even though the real exchange rate absorbs shocks in current and
expected fundamentals, its adjustment does not necessarily result in a desirable allocation
and may even exacerbate the misallocation of consumption and employment at both the
domestic and global level. This is because, relative to the case of complete markets,
both the Phillips curve and the loss function include a welfare-relevant measure of cross-country
imbalances. Consequently, this results in domestic goals, e.g. output gaps or inflation,
being traded-off against the stabilization of external variables such as the terms of
trade or the demand gap. Hence, the optimal monetary policy in this case consists of redressing
demand imbalances and/or correcting international relative prices at the cost of some inflation.
Corsetti, Dedola and Leduc (2011) summarize the status quo of research on international
monetary policy prescriptions: "Optimal monetary policy thus should target a combination of
inward-looking variables such as output gap and inflation, with currency misalignment
and cross-country demand misallocation, by leaning against the wind of misaligned exchange
rates and international imbalances." This is main factor in country money status.
In developing countries: Developing countries may have problems establishing
an effective operating monetary policy. The primary difficulty is that few developing
countries have deep markets in government debt. The matter is further complicated by
the difficulties in forecasting money demand and fiscal pressure to levy the inflation
tax by expanding the base rapidly. In general, the central banks in many developing countries
have poor records in managing monetary policy. This is often because the monetary authority
in developing countries are mostly not independent of the government, so good monetary policy
takes a backseat to the political desires of the government or are used to pursue other
non-monetary goals. For this and other reasons, developing countries that want to establish
credible monetary policy may institute a currency board or adopt dollarization. This can avoid
interference from the government and may lead to the adoption of monetary policy as carried
out in the anchor nation. Recent attempts at liberalizing and reform of financial markets
(particularly the recapitalization of banks and other financial institutions in Nigeria
and elsewhere) are gradually providing the latitude required to implement monetary policy
frameworks by the relevant central banks. Trends:
Transparency: Beginning with New Zealand in 1990, central
banks began adopting formal, public inflation targets with the goal of making the outcomes,
if not the process, of monetary policy more transparent. In other words, a central bank
may have an inflation target of 2% for a given year, and if inflation turns out to be 5%,
then the central bank will typically have to submit an explanation. The Bank of England
exemplifies both these trends. It became independent of government through the Bank of England
Act 1998 and adopted an inflation target of 2.5% RPI, revised to 2% of CPI in 2003.The
success of inflation targeting in the United Kingdom has been attributed to the Bank of
England's focus on transparency. The Bank of England has been a leader in producing
innovative ways of communicating information to the public, especially through its Inflation
Report, which have been emulated by many other central banks.
The European Central Bank adopted, in 1998, a definition of price stability within the
Eurozone as inflation of under 2% HICP. In 2003, this was revised to inflation below,
but close to, 2% over the medium term. Since then, the target of 2% has become common for
other major central banks, including the Federal Reserve (since January 2012) and Bank of Japan
(since January 2013). Effect on business cycles:
There continues to be some debate about whether monetary policy can (or should) smooth business
cycles. A central conjecture of Keynesian economics is that the central bank can stimulate
aggregate demand in the short run, because a significant number of prices in the economy
are fixed in the short run and firms will produce as many goods and services as are
demanded (in the long run, however, money is neutral, as in the neoclassical model).
However, some economists from the new classical school contend that central banks cannot affect
business cycles. Behavioral monetary policy:
Conventional macroeconomic models assume that all agents in an economy are fully rational.
A rational agent has clear preferences, models uncertainty via expected values of variables
or functions of variables, and always chooses to perform the action with the optimal expected
outcome for itself among all feasible actions – they maximize their utility. Monetary
policy analysis and decisions hence traditionally rely on this New Classical approach. However,
as studied by the field of behavioral economics that takes into account the concept of bounded
rationality, people often deviate from the way that these neoclassical theories assume.
Humans are generally not able to react fully rational to the world around them – they
do not make decisions in the rational way commonly envisioned in standard macroeconomic
models. People have time limitations, cognitive biases, care about issues like fairness and
equity and follow rules of thumb (heuristics). This has implications for the conduct of monetary
policy. Monetary policy is the final outcome of a complex interaction between monetary
institutions, central banker preferences and policy rules, and hence human decision-making
plays an important role. It is more and more recognized that the standard rational approach
does not provide an optimal foundation for monetary policy actions. These models fail
to address important human anomalies and behavioral drivers that explain monetary policy decisions.
An example of a behavioral bias that characterizes the behavior of central bankers is loss aversion:
for every monetary policy choice, losses loom larger than gains, and both are evaluated
with respect to the status quo. One result of loss aversion is that when gains and losses
are symmetric or nearly so, risk aversion may set in. Loss aversion can be found in
multiple contexts in monetary policy. The "hard fought" battle against the Great Inflation,
for instance, might cause a bias against policies that risk greater inflation. Another common
finding in behavioral studies is that individuals regularly offer estimates of their own ability,
competence, or judgments that far exceed an objective assessment: they are overconfident.
Central bank policymakers may fall victim to overconfidence in managing the macroeconomy
in terms of timing, magnitude, and even the qualitative impact of interventions. Overconfidence
can result in actions of the central bank that are either "too little" or "too much".
When policymakers believe their actions will have larger effects than objective analysis
would indicate, this results in too little intervention. Overconfidence can, for instance,
cause problems when relying on interest rates to gauge the stance of monetary policy: low
rates might mean that policy is easy, but they could also signal a weak economy.
These are examples of how behavioral phenomena may have a substantial influence on monetary
policy. Monetary policy analyses should thus account for the fact that policymakers (or
central bankers) are individuals and prone to biases and temptations that can sensibly
influence their ultimate choices in the setting of macroeconomic and/or interest rate targets.
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