Waching daily Sep 6 2017

North Korea: Is Kim Jong-un's brother the answer to crisis?

Kim Jong-chul is quieter, less politically motivated and considered more effeminate, which is why some experts say his father never thought he'd be up to the top job.

The third of Kim Jong-il's five children, Jong-chul never stood a chance of ruling with an older brother and politically savvy younger sibling, Kim Jong-un.

And while speculation and rumours swirled the eldest Kim, Beijing-friendly Jong-nam, would one day succeed his father, Jong-chul has never seriously been considered as a likely ruler.

Jong-nam was poisoned in an assassination plot in February which Seoul claims was organised by North Korean agents.

Not only was he friendly with China, but some speculated he was being groomed to rule in exile with Beijing preferring him to his tougher dictator brother. The Kim family tree.

Kim Jong-un doesn't like any sort of threat or dissent which is one of the reasons he reportedly had his own uncle and half-brother killed. Jong-nam had been approached about leading a government in exile, something he refused, according to Time.

He had lived in China for several years and was regarded by some as more liberal and open to reform than his younger sibling.

Many assumed Jong-nam was the natural heir apparent but he fell out of favour after he was caught trying to visit Japan on a fake passport in 2001. The move brought great embarrassment to his father and ensured his exile.

Kim Jong-nam, the eldest son of Kim Jong-il, was been assassinated in Malaysia in February 14, 2017.

A less tougher Kim could be a win-win for China who could potentially exercise more influence over North Korea, however the reality is Jong-chul is unlikely to rule.

According to Dr Leonid Petrov, one of the world's leading experts on the reclusive regime, Jong-chul is known for having a "soft personality. He is also regarded as much less of a threat to his brother than Jong-nam was.

Kim Jong-chul is the third child of the Kim Jong-il Picture: KCNA/AP. "There are rumours he (Jong-chul) has feminine traits to his character and took hormones to help him behave more masculine," Dr Petrov said.

"But Chul is also not interested in ruling, he's apolitical and instead prefers pop music and concerts, and travelling overseas accompanied by North Korean minders.

Dr Petrov said Jong-chul has never spoken publicly, unlike Jong-nam, which put him in a much safer position.

Kim Jong-chul pictured as a child. When asked if Beijing would prefer him as a ruler over Jong-un Dr Petrov said the reality was Beijing didn't have near as much influence over Pyongyang as people thought.

"China has very limited power and influence over North Korea, this is a big misconception people have," he said. In a 2015 article the Washington Postreported Jong-chul was spotted in London at an Eric Clapton concert at the Royal Albert Hall.

BBC journalist Simeon Paterson saw him and reportedly said: "He was having a great time, singing along to all the words. Along with music, it appears he also likes the finer things in life.

During his visit to the British capital, South Korean news agency Yonhap reported Jong-chul stayed at the Chelsea Harbour Hotel, where rooms can cost more than $3500 a night.

Not only did Jong-chul visit London to see his music idol but he also saw him at a concert in Singapore in 2011 and several times in Germany in 2006.

The Kim dynasty: Kim Il-Sung, Kim Jong-il, and a younger Kim Jong-un. According to Dr Petrov, Jong-chul's role in the family dynasty is mainly serving his older sister Kim Sol-song, who takes over many duties for her ruler brother.

"Chul assists his sister who is a much more controlling person and runs things when Un is busy," he said. "Korea is a very traditional society and while she is revolutionary bloodline and legitimate, she probably wouldn't rule either.

If one country has any influence or impact on Pyongyang, it is China. However Dr Peter Layton, a visiting fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute at Griffith University, said how much was questionable.

He said while Beijing would prefer a more reasonable ruler, it didn't want to see North Korea collapse completely.

Kim was unpredictable and his country's nuclear growth was concerning to Beijing but he was unsure if it was capable or willing to install a new ruler who would listen.

"If there is a palace coup we would hope that will be the outcome but it might not," Dr Layton said.

"He (Jong-un) is paranoid. Trying to convince him his best chance of survival depends on him ending his nuclear program could be a better option.". debra. killalea@news. com.

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North Korea crisis: War talk is 'baloney', analyst saysNews - Duration: 8:34.

North Korea crisis: War talk is 'baloney', analyst says

"I don't know one person in the Korea analyst community who thinks war is likely," the South Korea Pusan National University academic writes. "Nor do I know anyone serious who has advocated air strikes or other kinetic options.".

Mr Kelly argues the West will have to learn to live with a nuclear North Korea.

"Yes, that sucks," he adds on his personal blog. "But all this irresponsible talk that we can't adapt, that nuclear North Korea is an undeterrable, existential threat is just threat-inflating baloney.

"We've learned to live with nuclear missiles in the hands of a Muslim state with a serious jihadi problem. Would America prefer this not to be the case? Yes.

"But is living with a nuclear Pakistan a better choice than bombing it or sending in US special forces to destroy their nukes? Absolutely. Or we would have done it already.".

But Dr Genevieve Hohnen, Lecturer in Politics and International Relations at Edith Cowan University, says North Korea's latest missile and bomb tests demonstrate advances that are both serious and significant to the international community.

"With these developments in mind the situation is notably more serious than it has been previously," she says. "As we move forward with North Korea it is imperative that every leader and spokesperson realises the potential magnitude of getting things wrong.".

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un attending a meeting with a committee of the Workers Party of Korea about its recent test of a hydrogen bomb.

Mr Kelly says the whole cycle of North Korea's missile and nuclear test war scares has become ritualised. "The interesting parts are not the rehearsed statements and events themselves, but how people react to them," he says.

In particular, that means the tendency for Western analysts to "freak out". "North Korea has this effect. People kinda lose their minds and say gonzo stuff they wouldn't say about other foreign policy problems.".

But the phenomenon, he says, appears limited to the West. KIM JONG-UN: The fire and fury of staying in power. "The contrast with South Korean (but also Japanese) news is striking … (the) South Koreans are barely paying attention.

At the height of the war of words between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump last month, Mr Kelly points out both South Korea's president and foreign minister went on holidays.

"There have been no runs on the supermarket; no one is building bomb shelters; civil defence is, unfortunately, still treated as an afterthought," he says.

A tourist holds a child as she stands before a window showing distance to the North Korean capital of Pyongyang at a viewing deck of the landmark Namsan tower in Seoul.

Dr Hohnen agrees that there is a tendency for Western political leaders to overplay their hand and engage in aggressive rhetoric.

"The biggest thing to avoid here is backing Kim Jong-un into a corner," she says. "What we know of his personality and psychological profile is that it is imperative to give an option to exit.

Continually escalating the rhetoric is quite simply too much of a risk given the potential consequences both regionally and now worldwide.". EXPLORE MORE: What a war with Nork Korea could look like.

It's a balance inherently understood by South Korea, Mr Kelly says. But, back in the West, he says he is constantly being asked by media if war was about to break out.

"I often have the impression the hosts or producers are slightly disappointed I am not more alarmist," he says. "I am regularly asked if the Kims are crazy, insane, warmongers, and so on. They are just gangsters, not suicidal ideologues.".

The UN Security Council during an emergency meeting over North Koreas latest nuclear test.

Mr Kelly argues 70 years of successful deterrence along the 48th parallel demilitarised zone simply cannot be dismissed. And the game of provocative brinkmanship between the two states has been played "relentlessly" since the 1960s.

It's not that South Korea is dismissive of the North's constant threat. It maintains a policy of compulsory conscription for its army, after all.

"The upshot is that whenever North Korean bad behaviour spikes enough to make it international news, Americans suddenly pay attention," he says. "But in the interim, the South Koreans have also been paying attention.

So they appear sanguine when Western journalists suddenly show up at those peaks.". Mr Kelly also argues the United States demonstrates an unusual degree of anxiety over its safety.

"Ensconced between two oceans and two weak neighbours and far from the tightly-packed Eurasian cauldron of competition, the US is one of the most secure great powers in history," he writes.

"Yet we Americans are prone to extraordinary outbursts of national security panic.".

Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives for a press conference at the BRICS Summit in Xiamen, Fujian province on September 5. The summit has been upstaged by North Koreas latest nuclear weapons provocation.

Dr Hohnen says a similar lack composure is being displayed by Australia, with. both Foreign Minister Julie Bishop and Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull having publicly reprimanded China and called on it to exercise its influence to solve this crisis.

"While there is every reason to make these representations privately and in diplomatic circles doing so publicly risks giving China a reason to hold back precisely when we want them to act," she says.

"Calling for China and stating that it is their job to solve this crisis it potentially makes China appear to be doing the bidding of the US and its allies rather than acting in the Chinese national interest.

And a rising China will be very hesitant to take action on this basis.". Mr Kelly argues much of the United States' reaction to North Korea is more about internal politics than any real external threat.

"Neo-conservatism as a foreign policy posture is based on the notion that American security is constantly threatened, even in weak, faraway places like Yemen or Venezuela," he says.

"My own sense is that … we are prone to threat-inflation, and North Korea is so easy to caricature.