Welcome everyone.
It's great to be with you on this
tour of the world's top
risks for 2018.
I'm Ian Bremmer.
And I'm Cliff Kupchan.
And together we're going to be taking you
around the world.
Our biggest concerns,
the things that keep us up in the night.
Ranked from ten to one.
Please do set your headphones
- channel 2 for English,
channel 1 for Chinese.
Let's get started.
2018 is by far
the most dangerous geopolitical risk
environment that we have experienced
since we started the company some 20
years ago.
The markets don't recognize it.
They're hitting records on a regular basis.
The global economy feels pretty
good,
but geopolitically we are in
the midst of a deep recession.
And unlike the last economic
recession - the worst since
the Great Depression,
this time around geopolitically
countries don't feel like they need
to hurry to a fix.
Certainly the United States the
one country in the world that could be making a difference
to pull us out of geopolitical recession
doesn't feel like it's their problem.
The Chinese are responding
but they're creating an alternative model to
the extent they can at least economically.
The Europeans are nowhere to be seen.
The Russians are only causing problems
and rogue states and actors all see this as an
opportunity - some space for them
to operate.
That's a dangerous 2018 it's
one you're going to particularly see when we get to risk
number one.
But first let's start counting
down from risk ten.
The tenth risk is Africa's Security.
Large countries in Africa have
recently shown quite robust investment
climates
and been relatively immune
to the instability that surrounds them.
That could well change this year.
You see that with terrorism - al
Shabaab and ISIS only
growing across sub-Saharan Africa.
You see it
with greater refugee flows that are going to
be picking up over the course of 2018.
And you see it with greater concerns
downside for these economies.
This is not the African
dream that consulting firms have been talking
about for over a decade now.
It's actually much more dangerous environment.
Risk number nine is identity politics in Southern
Asia. You know Southern Asia is a
fantastic story economically
- we've seen that in India
and we've seen across Southeast Asia one of the
best in the world.
But there is an underside
to it.
You see greater Islamic populism
on the part of governments as well as
Islamic terror particularly
in Malaysia
and Indonesia.
We see greater anti-China
sentiment playing out in nationalism
across this region from populations
that are doing particularly well -
Chinese expats
but aren't as appreciated by
local governments
and local populations politically.
And then of course we also see Hindu nationalism
and Indian nationalism coming from
Narendra Modi in India.
Risk number 8 is the United Kingdom.
Part of it of course is Brexit - by far
the most challenging international negotiation
being underway anywhere in
the world
and neither the United Kingdom
or the Europeans are really in
line in terms of what they want.
That's only going to cause market uncertainty
all year long.
The biggest issue is
Northern Ireland.
The UK is going to leave the EU.
So there's got to be a border somewhere - north south
or east west.
Any special deal on that border
is going to set a precedent that Scotland
and even the city of London is going to want
to follow. It doesn't work.
Moreover Theresa May may
not finish her term.
The most benign scenario is that another Tory
takes over but that would upset Article 50.
The least benign scenario is that
there's a new election and Jeremy Corbyn wins.
I've got to tell you if Corbyn actually becomes prime
minister that's probably worse for the United Kingdom
than the Brexit negotiations.
Risk number seven: Protectionism 2.0.
Protectionism is taking on
an entirely new form.
It's not just about tariffs.
It's about protecting IP
and associated technologies.
The key to the future.
Moreover,
protectionism 2.0 is politicized
- where the money comes from matters.
People don't really want
Chinese, Russian investment.
They're going to be careful.
If it's economic issues
that are driving the United States
and China farther apart.
Some of that will be tariffs
but most of it will be non-tariff measures
between the world's two largest economies.
Protectionism 2.0 is going to come against the backdrop
where the United States is not leading the rules of
the road in the global economy.
Nobody else is either.
Risk number six is erosion of institutions.
People don't trust bureaucratic,
technocratic governments.
In the United States, legitimacy of the media is significantly down.
Nobody knows who's telling the truth.
Fake News.
Elections - legitimacy down.
Europe and the United States - turnout down in both
These institutions are becoming less legitimate.
The societies are becoming more polarized.
And in 2018 we're going to see that process
pick up steam.
It's going to make a difference in the ability
of the United States Pax Americana
to lead by example for the rest
of the world.
Risk number five is U.S.-Iran relations
I think it's safe to say that neither the Americans
nor the Iranians are happy
with each other at this point,
despite this nuclear deal.
President Trump to start
with is going to do everything possible to pick
on Iran on the non-nuclear side
That means in terms of support
for anti US
and anti U.S. ally proxies across
the region,
support for terrorism
as well as picking up economic
sanctions,
diplomatic efforts,
and military efforts by the United States to
check Iranian geopolitical power.
It's been on the rise across
the region.
Trump also -
and it's very important to understand - he can get up
in the morning
and he can just end the deal any day.
If this deal goes down sanctions
will get slapped back on
and the Iranian nuclear program could
very well start back up again.
This time next year we could well
be talking about the Israeli strikes on Iranian
nuclear facilities.
That's a bad movie
and we've all seen it.
Our fourth risk is Mexico
NAFTA - The negotiation could fall apart, might not work.
Trump could initiate withdrawal
and that would stop negotiations at
least temporarily
creating tremendous uncertainty over
billions of dollars of trade
and especially hurting the Mexican economy which
is very dependent on its trade
with the United States.
And you don't want all of that happening in an election
year that's going to politicize
and create a great sense of anti-Americanism
and the person who's most likely to play it well
that's Lopez Obrador
in charge of his Morena party.
He and what will certainly be
a much more anti U.S.
Cabinet will create massive
uncertainty for the economic
environment of America's southern neighbor.
Risk number three is the Global Tech Cold War.
What we have is
the most important global sector
being an object of great contention
between the world's two most important economies
- U.S. and China.
It's a fight over big data.
It's a fight over information.
And it's a fight increasingly over the
attempt to dominate Artificial Intelligence.
In China it's the government
pouring cash in
with companies aligned
and patriotic.
In the case of the United States
more advanced
but also much less aligned
and these companies are not
patriotic they are increasingly fighting against
each other and they're certainly not playing
nice with Washington.
Our number two risk is accidents.
There's no global policeman.
And the wood is dry in a lot of arenas around the world.
Take cyber.
Lots of state and non-state actors have tremendous
cyber capability.
We could be facing a year where there's
a cyber takedown of
a large part of a major economy.
Second - Syria. It is a country where
countries that don't like each other
have a lot of hardware in close
proximity. The United States,
and Russia.
The United States and Iran.
Something could well good wrong.
North Korea.
Not that we're expecting a war
but it's certainly more likely than it has been.
The idea that the Americans are telling
the North Koreans "fire
and fury" "you guys can't develop
an ICBM"
and they're saying "oh yeah?
Watch us." Certainly greater danger
around that.
Terrorism
hitting Americans
outside the United States
or even back at home.
The overreaction from the Trump administration
would be extravagant.
We haven't had a major geopolitical
accident since the Cuban missile
crisis decades ago.
2018 feels like a time
when our luck may be
running out.
And our number one risk for 2018
is China Loves a
Vacuum.
For decades now it's the Americans that
have told other countries in the world how to
reform - the Russians after the
Soviet collapse, the East Europeans,
emerging markets,
yes even the Chinese.
But today in 2018
you could argue that the American
political system is in greater need
of structural reform than that
of Xi Jinping's China.
Xi is the strongest leader that China has had
since Mao Zedong.
He has consolidated
power domestically
and he's prepared to play
an increasingly global leadership
role at a time when the Americans
will not and cannot lead
by example.
The geopolitical vacuum doesn't get filled
but it becomes much more antagonistic
and confrontational because
of the rise of China.
Especially in U.S.-China.
China is not going to play on North Korea.
Trade tensions are going to break out.
So the U.S.-China relationship
is going to be very tricky.
There is really for the very first time an
alternative to the Western model
of liberal democracy.
It's Xi Jinping. It's China.
And that's our top risk of 2018.
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