The Public Is "All In" Again June 30 (King World News) – From Jason Goepfert
at SentimenTrader: Rydex traders are all in again.
The traders who use the Rydex family of mutual funds are holding $14 in bullish index funds
for every $1 they have in the inverse funds, a near-record level of confidence.
They're also holding more than $10 in leveraged bullish funds for every $1 in leveraged index
funds, a highly optimistic positioning that led to declines.
They have the lowest amount in the money market since 2000, so there isn't much of a cushion
against a fall… … as of Wednesday, there was nearly $14
invested in the bullish index funds for every $1 invested in the inverse funds.
Over the past 20 years, that ratio has been exceeded only once before, on March 2, 2015.
In the year 2000, the ratio barely exceeded 12 several times from March through September.
Having been burned so badly by the ensuing decline, the traders never approached a similar
extreme until 2014-15.
King World News note: The bottom line is that there will be a lot of pain for investors
as a major decline in the stock market unfolds, and it will feed on itself as it plunges.
This piece is just one example of why Jason Goepfert is the best in the world at what
he does.
The chart and commentary above are from SentimenTrader.
Fed Trying to Cripple Trump Economy-Danielle
DiMartino Booth Financial expert and former top Federal Reserve
insider Danielle DiMartino Booth says the latest Fed rate hike is nothing less than
an attempt to make life worse for President Trump.
DiMartino Booth explains, "They are trying to do the opposite of what they did a year
ago because the people who occupy the White House have changed.
That's the only feasible answer I can come up with to explain the Fed tightening into
a weakening economy.
Their own metrics don't lie.
Nonfarm payroll growth has slowed appreciably over the last 12 months, and their favorite
inflation metric is back below 2%.
These are the rules they have made up, not me.
They (the Fed) are making policies against their own rules, and there has to be a reason
for it."
DiMartino Booth wrote a popular book called "Fed Up" that reveals the Fed's manipulation
of the financial markets and says flat out, "The Federal Reserve is bad for America."
DiMartino Booth says massive manipulation is the only way you can explain rising federal
debt and stagnant or falling interest rates on the 10-year Treasury bond.
DiMartino Booth contends, "The only way you can fabricate the surreal balance between
growing debt and falling interest rates is to manipulate that.
. . . These are central bankers gone wild.
. . . In 2008 and 2009, the credit markets were closer to $200 trillion in size.
Today the credit markets are closer to $300 trillion in size, and we still can't say
what and where the next systemic risk lies."
On gold, DiMartino says, "I think gold is in the very late stage of a correction phase.
Once we get a sniff of true market reaction to any of these geopolitical events, I think
you could see gold take off like a boomerang or a hockey stick.
. . . If there is any slowing in the global economy, then the safe haven will not necessarily
be U.S. Treasuries.
The ultimate safe haven is gold."
DiMartino Booth says it's unlikely the Fed can fix the economy the next time it gets
into trouble.
DiMartino Booth says, "If you tack on slowing auto sales . . . we're talking about a third
of manufacturing jobs in this country . . . manufacturing is still big enough at the margin to lead
the economy down.
. . . When you aggregate the bloodletting in brick and mortar retail, what's coming
up in restaurants, what auto dealerships are looking to do with the land under their dealerships
. . . you add all this up together and there is a perfect storm in this country for commercial
real estate, that is highly overvalued, and throw in a black swan or two geopolitically
and you could have a confluence of factors that the Fed could not fight."
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