today we have Elon Musk Eon thank you
for joining us thanks have a great so we
want to spend the time today talking
about your view of the future and what
people should work on so to start off
could you tell us you famously said when
you were younger there were five
problems that you thought were most
important for you to work on if you were
22 today what would the five problems
that you would think about working on B
well first of all I think if somebody is
doing something that is useful to the
rest of society I think that's a good
thing like it doesn't have to change the
world like you know if you think
something that has high value to people
and frankly even if it's something if
it's like just a little game or you know
the some improvement in photo-sharing or
something it but if it had a small
amount of good for a large number of
people that's I mean I think that's
that's fine like stuff doesn't need to
be change the world just to be good but
you know in terms of things that I think
are most likely to affect the future of
humanity I think AI is probably the
single biggest item in the NIA to them
that's like their effect humanity so
it's very important that we have the
advent of AI in a good way but that is
something that if you if you could look
at the crystal and see the future you
would like you would like that outcome
because it is something that could go
could go wrong and as we've talked about
many times and so we really need to make
sure it goes right that's I think a i
working on AI and making sure it's great
future that's that's the most important
thing I think right now the most
pressing item so then I would say I
think Institute with with genetics if
you can actually solve genetic diseases
if you can prevent dementia or
Alzheimer's or something like that that
works genetic reprogramming that would
be wonderful so I think this
genetics it might be a sort of second
most important item I think having a
high bandwidth interface to the brain
like we're currently bandwidth-limited
we have a digital tertiary cells in pull
of our email capabilities like computers
phones applications were effectively
superhuman but we're extremely bad with
constraint in that interface between the
cortex and you would sort of let the
tertiary digital form of yourself and
helping solve that bandwidth constraint
would be I think very important for the
future as well so one of the I think
most common questions I hear young
people at ambitious young people ask is
I want to be the next Elon Musk how do I
do that um obviously the next Elon Musk
will work on very different things than
you did but what have you done or what
did you do when you were younger that
you think sort of set you up to have a
big impact
well I think this'll edge to that I do
not expect to be involved in all these
things so the the the five things that I
thought about the time in college style
quite a long time ago 25 years ago you
know being you know making life
multiplanetary selling accelerating the
transition to sustainable energy the the
Internet
broadly speaking and and then genetics
and AI I think I didn't expect to be
involved in all of those things actually
at the time in college I sort of thought
helping with electrification of cars
which was how we start out and that's a
that's actually what I worked on as an
intern was advanced ultra capacitors
with to see think there would be a
breakthrough relative to batteries for
energy storage in cars and then when I
came out to go to Stanford that's what I
was going to be doing my grad studies on
is it was working on advanced at energy
storage technologies for electric cars
and I put that on hold to start an
Internet company in 95 because
that doesn't seem to be like a time for
particular technologies when
at a steep point in the inflection code
and and I didn't want to you know do PhD
at Stanford and then and what sure will
happen and then and I wasn't entirely
certain that the technology I'd be
working on would actually succeed like
you get you can get a you know doctrine
on many things that ultimately or not do
not have a practical bearing on the
world and I wanted to you know just I
really was just trying to be useful
that's the optimization like what are
what can I do that would actually be
useful do you think people that want to
be useful today should get PhDs um
mostly not with what is the best ways on
the yes but mostly not how should
someone figure out how they can be most
useful or whatever the thing is that
you're trying to create what would what
would be the utility Delta compared to
the current state-of-the-art times how
many people it would affect so that's
why I think having something that has
that that has a mix makes a big
difference but effects a sort of small
to moderate number of people is great as
is something that makes even a small
difference but it but affects a vast
number of people like the area yeah you
know under yeah exactly
area under the curve is would actually
be roughly similar for those two things
so it's actually really about now just
trying to be useful and matter when
you're trying to estimate probability of
success so you say this thing will be
really useful good area under the curve
I guess to use the example of SpaceX
mmm-hmm when you made the NGO decision
that you're actually going to do that
this was kind of a very crazy thing at
the time very crazy there shortly yeah
I'm not sure I about saying that but I
kind of agree I agreed with them that it
was quite crazy crazy if if the
objective was to achieve the best risk
adjusted return starting our company is
insane but that was not that was not my
objective I item to come to the
conclusion that if something didn't
happen to improve rocks technology would
be stuck on earth forever and and the
big aerospace companies had just had no
interest in radical innovation all they
wanted to do
try to make their old technology
slightly better every year and in fact
sometimes it would actually get worse
and particularly in Rockets is pretty
bad I could in 69 we were able to go to
the moon with a Saturn 5 and then the
space shuttle could only take people to
low-earth orbit and then the Space
Shuttle retired and that trend is
basically trends to zero
if you always think technology just
automatically gets better over year but
I actually doesn't it only gets better
if smart people work worked like crazy
to make it better
that's how any technology actually gets
better and by itself technology if
people don't work it actually will
decline you can look at the history of
civilizations many civilizations and
look at say ancient Egypt where they
able to pull these incredible pyramids
and then they basically forgot how to
build pyramids and and then even
hieroglyphics they figure out how to
read hydrocal hieroglyphics so we look
at Rome and how they all took to build
these incredible roadways and aqueducts
and indoor plumbing and it's got how to
do all of those things and there are
many such examples in history so I I
think Joy's bear in mind that you know
entropy is not on your side yeah one
thing I really like about you is you are
unusually fearless and willing to go in
the face of other people telling you
something is crazy and I know a lot of
pretty crazy people you still stand out
where does that come from or how do you
think about making a decision when
everyone tells you this is a crazy idea
where do you get the internal strength
to do that well first of all I'd say I
actually think I see if feel fair quite
strongly so far as though I just have
the absence of fear I've I feel it quite
strongly but there are times when
something is important enough that you
believe in it enough that you do it in
spite of fear so speaking of important
things like people shouldn't think III
should think well I feel fear about this
and therefore I shouldn't do it it's
normal to be to feel fear like you'd
have to definitely something mentally
wrong you should
feel fair so you just feel it and let
the importance of it drive you to do it
anyway yeah you know actually something
that can be helpful as fatalism some
degree you could just think it just
accept the probabilities then that
diminishes fear so I'm starting SpaceX I
thought the odds of success were less
than 10% and I just accepted that
actually probably I would just lose lose
everything but that maybe would make
some progress if we could just move the
ball forward even if we died maybe some
other company could pick up the baton
and move keep moving it forward so that
were still decent good yeah same with
Tesla I thought your odds of a clock
company succeeding were extremely low
what do you think the odds of the Mars
colony are at this point today well
oddly enough I actually think they're
pretty good
so like when can I go okay at this point
I am certain doubt is a way I'm certain
that success was one of the possible
outcomes for establishing a
self-sustaining Mars colony in fact
growing Lost Colony I'm certain that
that is possible whereas until maybe a
few years ago I was not sure that
success was even one of the possible
outcomes some meaningful number of
people going to Mars I think this is
potentially something that can be
accomplished in about 10 years maybe
sooner maybe nine years I need to make
sure that safe sex doesn't die between
now and then and that I don't die or if
I do die that someone takes over who
will continue that shouldn't go on the
first launch yeah exactly like the first
launch will be a robotic anyway so I
want to go except for the internet
latency yeah they are at latency you're
pretty significant on Mars is roughly 12
light minutes from the Sun and Earth is
eight light minutes so closest approach
Mazdas for light minutes away at first
approaches 20 a little more because you
can't sort of talk directly through the
Sun speaking of a really important part
ai so you've been outspoken about AI um
could you talk about what you think the
positive future for a it looks like and
how we get there okay I mean I do want
to emphasize that this is not really
something that I advocate or this is not
prescriptive this is simply pretty
hopefully predictive this will look some
say oh well like like this is something
that I want to occur instead of me so
something I think that probably is the
best of the available alternatives the
best of the available alternatives that
I can come up with and maybe someone
else can come up with a better approach
or a better outcome is that we achieve
democratization of AI technology meaning
that no one company or small set of
individuals has control over advanced AI
technology I think that that's very
dangerous it calls to get stolen by
somebody bad you know like some evil
dictator the country could send their
intelligence agency to go steal it and
gain control it just becomes a very
unstable situation I think if you've got
any any incredibly powerful AI you just
don't know who's who's going to control
that so it's not as I think that the
risk is that the AI would develop a will
of its own right off the bat I think
it's more the consumers that some
someone may use it in a way that is bad
or and even if they weren't going to use
in a way that's bad that somebody could
take it from them and use it in a way
that's bad that that I think is quite a
big danger so I think we must have
democratization of AIT I'll actually
make it widely available and that's you
know the reason that of the you mean the
regime you know created open AI was to
help with the democracy help help spread
out AI technology so it doesn't get
concentrated in the hands of a few and
but then of course that needs to be
combined with solving the high bandwidth
interface to the cortex humans are so
slow humans so flow yes exactly
but you know we already have a situation
in our brain where we've got the cortex
and limbic system and the limbic system
it's kind of a that's that's the
primitive brain it's kind of like the
your your instinct and whatnot and then
the cortex of thinking upper part of the
brain those two seem to work together
quite well occasionally your cortex and
limbic system may disagree but they
attending it works pretty generally
works pretty well and it's like the rare
to find someone who I've not found
someone who which is to either get rid
of the cortex or get rid of the allylic
system very true yes that's unusual so
so I think if we can effectively merge
with AI like improving that the neural
link between your cortex and the video
digital extension yourself which already
likes that already exists just has a
bandwidth issue and then then
effectively you become an AI human
symbiote and and if that then is
widespread with anyone who wants it can
have it then we solve a control problem
as well we don't have to worry about
some sort of evil dictator AI because
kind of we are the AI collectively that
seems like the best outcome I can think
of so you've seen other companies in the
early days that start small and get
really successful hope I don't regret
asking this on camera but how do you
think open AI is going as a six month
old company as used to go pretty well I
think we've got a really talented group
at opening eye and yeah really really
talented team and they're working hard
open area structured as a 501 C 3
non-profit but you know many nonprofits
do not have a sense of urgency it's fine
they don't have to have a sense of
urgency but opening ideas as I think
people really believe in the mission I
think is important
and it's about minimizing the risk of
existential harm in the future and so I
think it's going well I'm pretty
impressed with what people are doing in
the talent level and obviously we're
always looking for great people to join
me by omission what's the 40 people not
yes well alright just a few more
questions before we we wrap up how do
you spend your days now like what what
do you allocate most of your time to my
time is mostly split what's between
SpaceX and Tesla and of course I try to
spend it's a lot of every week at open
AI so I spend most I spend basically
half a day at opening I most weeks and
then and then I have some opening I
stuff that happens during the week but
other than that it's really ideal when
you're has little X or Tesla like what
does your time look like there yeah so
it's a good question I think a lot of
people think I must spend a lot of time
with media or on business key things but
actually almost all my time 80% of it is
spent on engineering design engineering
and design so it's developing next
generation product at that's 80% of it
you probably not remember it's a very
long time ago many many years you took
me on a tour of SpaceX and the most
impressive thing was that you knew every
detail of the rocket and every piece of
engineering that went into it I don't
think many people get that about you
yeah I think a lot of people think I'm
kind of a business person or something
it just fine I like business is fine but
I'm a guy really you know as I get
SpaceX Gwynne Shotwell was chief
operating officer she kind of manages
legal finance sales and kind of general
business activity and then my time is
almost entirely with the engineering
team working on improving the Falcon 9
and the Dragon spacecraft and developing
the most colonial architecture and that
Tesla it's working on the model 3 and
the
yes I'm in the design studio to clear
half a day a week dealing with
aesthetics and and look and feel things
and then most worst week is just going
through engineering of the car itself as
well as engineering of the factory
because the biggest
FF&E I've had just this year is that
what really matters is the is the
machine that builds the machine the
factory and if that is at least towards
90 hotter than the vehicle itself it's
amazing to watch the robots go here
these cars just happen
yeah now this actually is has a really
low level of automation compared to what
the gigafactory will have and what model
3 will have what's the speed on the line
of these cars actually average the line
is incredibly slow it's probably about
it cleaning both X and s it's maybe five
you know five centimeters per second and
what can you guess this is very slow or
what would you like to get to I'm
confident we can get to to at least one
meter per second so 20-fold increase
that will be very fast
yeah um at least I mean I think quite a
1 meter per second just put that in
perspective is a slow walk over a good
medium speed walk a fast walk could be
one and a half meters per second and and
then the fastest humans can run over ten
meters per second so if we're doing only
doing point zero five meters you're
saying that's very slow current current
speed and and at 1 meter per second you
can still walk faster than the
production line
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