Since the election there has been this perception among the American public that the economy
is improving, but that has not been the case at all.
U.S. GDP growth for the first quarter was just revised up to 1.2 percent, but that is
even lower than the average growth of just 1.33 percent that we saw over the previous
ten years.
But when you look even deeper into the numbers a much more alarming picture emerges.
Commercial and industrial loan growth is declining, auto loan defaults are rising, bankruptcies
are absolutely surging and we are on pace to break the all-time record for most store
closings in a single year in the United States by more than 20 percent.
All of these are points that I have covered before, but today I have 12 new facts to share
with you.
The following are 12 signs that the economic slowdown that the experts have been warning
about is now here…
#1 According to Challenger, the number of job cuts in May was 71 percent higher than
it was in May 2016.
#2 We just witnessed the third worst drop in U.S. construction spending in the last
six years.
#3 U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to an 8 month low in May.
#4 Financial stocks have lost all of their gains for the year, and some analysts are
saying that this is "a terrible sign".
#5 One new survey has found that 39 percent of all millionaires "plan to avoid investing
in the coming month".
That is the highest that figure has been since December 2013.
#6 Jobless claims just shot up to a five week high of 248,000.
#7 General Motors just reported another sales decline in May, and it is being reported that
the company may be preparing for "more job cuts at its American factories".
#8 After an initial bump after Donald Trump's surprise election victory, U.S. consumer confidence
is starting to fall.
#9 Since Memorial Day, Radio Shack has officially shut down more than 1,000 stores.
#10 Payless has just increased the number of stores that it plans to close to about
800.
#11 According to the Los Angeles Times, it is being projected that 25 percent of all
shopping malls in the United States may close within the next five years.
#12 Over the past 12 months, the number of homeless people living in Los Angeles County
has risen by a staggering 23 percent.
And in case those numbers have not persuaded you that the U.S. economy is heading for rough
times, I would encourage you to go check out my previous article entitled "11 Facts That
Prove That The U.S. Economy In 2017 Is In Far Worse Shape Than It Was In 2016" for
even more eye-popping statistics.
During a bubble, it can feel like the good times are just going to keep rolling forever.
But that never actually happens in reality.
The truth is that we are in the terminal phase of the greatest debt bubble of all time, and
the evidence is starting to mount that this debt bubble has just about run its course.
The following comes from Zero Hedge…
A recurring theme on this website has been to periodically highlight the tremendous build
up in US corporate debt, most recently in April when we showed that "Corporate Debt
To EBITDA Hits All Time High."
The relentless debt build up is something which even the IMF recently noted, when in
April it released a special report on financial stability, according to which 20% of US corporations
were at risk of default should rates rise.
It is also the topic of the latest piece by SocGen's strategist Andrew Lapthorne who
uses even more colorful adjectives to describe what has happened since the financial crisis,
noting that "the debt build-up during this cycle has been incredible, particularly when
compared to the stagnant progression of EBITDA."
Lapthorne calculates that S&P1500 ex financial net debt has risen by almost $2 trillion in
five years, a 150% increase, but this mild in comparison to the tripling of the debt
pile in the Russell 2000 in six years.
He also notes, as shown he previously, that as a result of this debt surge, interest payments
cost the smallest 50% of stocks in the US fully 30% of their EBIT compared with just
10% of profits for the largest 10% and states that "clearly the sensitivity to higher
interest rates is then going to be with this smallest 50%, while the dominance and financial
strength of the largest 10% disguises this problem in the aggregate index measures."
The same report noted that net debt growth in the U.S. is quickly headed toward negative
territory, and the last time that happened was during the last recession.
We see similar things when we look at the 2nd largest economy on the entire planet.
According to Jim Rickards, China "has multiple bubbles, and they're all getting ready to
burst"…
China is in the greatest financial bubble in history.
Yet, calling China a bubble does not do justice to the situation.
This story has been touched on periodically over the last year.
China has multiple bubbles, and they're all getting ready to burst.
If you make the right moves now, you could be well positioned even as Chinese credit
and currency crash and burn.
The first and most obvious bubble is credit.
The combined Chinese government and corporate debt-to-equity ratio is over 300-to-1 after
hidden liabilities, such as provincial guarantees and shadow banking system liabilities, are
taken into account.
We just got the worst Chinese manufacturing number in about a year, and it looks like
economic conditions over there are really starting to slow down as well.
Just like 2008, the coming crisis is going to be truly global in scope.
It is funny how our perspective colors our reality.
Just like in 2007, many are mocking those that are warning that a crisis is coming,
but just like in 2009, after the crisis strikes many will be complaining that nobody warned
them in advance about what was ahead.
And at this moment it may seem like we have all the time in the world to get prepared
for the approaching storm, but once it is here people will be talking about how it seemed
to hit us so quickly.
My hope is that many Americans will finally be fed up with our fundamentally flawed financial
system once they realize that we are facing another horrendous economic crisis, and that
in the aftermath they will finally be ready for the dramatic solutions that are necessary
in order to permanently fix things.
For more infomation >> 12 Signs The Economic Slowdown The Experts Have Been Warning About Is Now Here (July 2, 2017) - Duration: 7:03.-------------------------------------------
Gravity Rules: End Of The Bubble Is In Sight - Dave Kranzler - Duration: 10:00.
"Even the intelligent investor is likely to need considerable willpower to keep from
following the crowd."
- Ben Graham The quote above is from Ben Graham, considered
to be the father of value investing.
Graham followed the crowd in 1929 and lost a small fortune for himself and his investors.
Graham collected his learning experience from that disaster and eventually wrote, "The
Intelligent Investor," which is considered to be the one of the best investment books
ever written.
Warren Buffet enrolled at Columbia to study under Graham.
Graham's teachings formed the foundation of modern money management theories.
To this day it is considered the value investor's "investment bible."
Wall Street is incentivized to sell the idea that stocks only go up.
When I started on the junk bond desk as a salesmen (before switching to trading), I
was told my job was to "reach into the portfolio manager's pocket and take as much money
as you can from his pocket and put it into your pocket."
Wall Street greed has been around as long as stocks have been trading (the NYSE was
founded in 1792).
But it's hard to blame stockbrokers for the damaging effects of greed.
Stock-peddlers are like well-paid psychologists.
They take advantage of human greed.
Without investor greed, the stock brokerage business would be considerably smaller than
it is today.
A stock bubble can't exist without investor greed.
It starts with greed.
It moves into the "bubble" phase when greed is consumed by hysteria.
The U.S. stock market has moved into the "hysteria" stage.
This would be the point at which the bubble has almost reached maximum inflation.
The upward movement in stocks is dominated by a handful of the stocks that, for whatever
reason, are moving higher at the fastest rate of levitation.
The graphic on the next page shows visually what "bubble to hysteria" looks like.
I reached the conclusion the stock market has moved into the hysteria stage by spending
time studying the "Five Horsemen" (AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, FB, MSFT) + TSLA.
Even during periods of the trading day when the Dow and SPX are go red, most or all of
those six stocks remain green, sometimes moving higher while the broad indices move lower.
It's incredible to watch real-time.
"It's not to late to catch a ride on the FANG rally" was a headline seen on CNBC
last week.
This is the type of hysteria that is reflected in the media at bubble peaks.
In the image above (click to enlarge), the graph on the left is the NASDAQ index since
the election (from Jesse's Cafe Americain).
The graph on the right is the price-path that occurred during the Dutch Tulip Bulb mania
of the 1630's.
You can see that both graphs go vertical.
The vertical stage is driven by hysteria in which investors are terrified of missing the
next move higher.
It also ends with a decline, the rate of which is typically stunning.
The push higher in stocks like AAPL and AMZN is irrational, but TSLA has been infected
with outright hysteria.
The worse the news on Tesla gets, the more quickly the stock seems to move up in price.
Early in the week last week, Triple-A (the Auto Club group) announced that it was going
to raise the its insurance premiums on Tesla cars by as much as 30%.
A highway loss data study revealed that Tesla's vehicles have higher claim numbers and repair
costs vs. other vehicles in Tesla's category.
The Tesla S model claims were said to be 46% greater than the average number of claims
for similar vehicles.
Servicing those claims cost twice as much.
The X model car reported a 41% higher crash-rate than similar vehicles and cost 89% more to
repair.
In addition, it was reported on Monday that Toyota had unloaded the last of its remaining
stake in Tesla before the end of 2016.
It marked the end of a collaboration between Tesla and Toyota that began in 2010.
Toyota announced that it plans to release its own fleet of long-range mass produced
electric vehicles by 2020.
Despite this blow of negative news about Tesla, the stock powered up over 8% last week before
a late-day sell-off in the 5 Horsemen + Tesla inflicted a $19 reversal in TSLA's stock
price from its high Friday to the close.
My puts, the June 30th $317.50-strikes, traded from Friday from a low of $1.06 to close at
$2.40 on the bid side.
The graph below shows the price-path of TSLA's stock since the election.
Note that the graph looks very similar to the graphs of the NASDAQ/Tulip Bulb mania.
In the 1800's, writer Charles Mackay wrote a highly acclaimed book called, "Extraordinary
Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds," in which he presented his studies on crowd
psychology and how it leads to financial manias, among other destructive events.
The chart below reflects "crowd" madness as it applies to TSLA stock (the inset price-box
from last Thursday morning) While the NASDAQ has appreciated 22% since
the election, TSLA's stock, on deteriorating fundamentals, has shot up 191%.
TSLA's market cap now stands at nearly $61 billion.
It burns over $1 billion per year in cash and its financials are riddled with what would
have been considered accounting fraud 20 years ago.
It sold 72.6 thousand cars in 2016.
Compare this to GM, which has a market cap of $51 billion and sold over 3 million cars
in 2016, and Ford, which has a market cap of $44 billion and sold 2.5 million cars in
2016.
To say that the action in TSLA's stock price and its market cap is "insane" does not
do justice to the word in "insane."
TSLA is the "poster child" for the mass hysteria that fuels investment bubbles.
The problem with shorting TSLA is that the hedge funds are chasing its momentum higher,
as investors as investors embrace the negative news events as a reason to pay more for the
stock.
As such, it's hard to see a catalyst that will "correct" the price, like with retailers
for instance.
TSLA, along with AMZN, is one of the rare stocks which will continue levitating until
it doesn't – like a meteor that eventually burns out falls to earth.
In my opinion, the ride down will be worth the pain and blood-loss of sticking with a
short bet on TSLA, which is why I continue to buy small quantities of put options that
have been expiring worthless.
I know at some point I'm going to catch a $100+ reversal in TSLA stock which will
more than make-up for the small losses I'm enduring in the puts while I wait for that
occurrence.
Using puts protects me from the unknown magnitude of upside risk from shorting the stock.
Plus, I don't have make a "stop-loss" decision because I don't have the theoretic
"infinite upside" loss potential that I would face shorting the stock.
With my loss capped, I can hang on to the puts through expiration.
With a stock like TSLA, often a stop-loss exit is followed up by reversal to the downside,
leaving the short-seller without a short position.
As we saw on Friday, TSLA stock can reverse to the downside quite abruptly and sharply.
I can guarantee that some number of shorts covered as TSLA was soaring over $370, leaving
them with no position when the stock reversed, closing at $357.
I don't want to recommend specific puts to use but I can recommend giving yourself
at least four weeks of time.
If I were putting on a new put position today, I would probably buy a very small quantity
of the July 7th $340-strikes.
If TSLA sells back to the $310 area before expiry, which could easily happen as $310
is where the last 2-week push up in price began, the puts would have an intrinsic value
of $30.
The current cost is about $10.
TSLA reminds me of Commerce One (CMRC), a B2B internet company that went from $10 to
$600 in a very short period of time in late 1999 – 2000.
It eventually went to $0.
I shorted and covered small quantities of stock starting around $450.
I was fortunate to have been short from the high $500's when it finally topped out a
$600.
The volatility of this stock was extraordinary but persistence and "thick skin" paid
off.
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Frank Lampard's house is being used as a sex dungeon by coke-dealing dominatrix - Duration: 10:19.
Frank Lampard's house is being used as a sex dungeon by coke-dealing dominatrix who loves to tie up and spank clients with riding crops and whips
A LUXURY home owned by footie legend Frank Lampard has been turned into a sex dungeon by a coke-dealing dominatrix. Tenant Davina Ward, 37, films kinky sessions at the £2m London pad. The revelation will horrify Frank, who lives nearby.
Tenant Davina Ward has turned a home owned by Frank Lampard into a sex dungeon. Strapping bodybuilding champ Davina loves to spank and tie up clients — and even sells cocaine at the footie star's £2million property.
Punters rocking up to her "dungeon" — close to an exclusive infant school — pay £400 an hour for services including cross dressing. Kinky Davina charges £100 extra to make porn films there.
She also dresses in stockings and wellies for role play as a "farmyard manager".
The Suns footage shows Davina with a cash-filled envelope.
The dominatrix counts the cash in Franks gaff.
Davina sups on red wine as she talks to our reporter.
Whips and toys mounted on wall of the football idol's property.
Our footage also shows a sex swing in the ex-footballers property. Davina claimed to be a fitness instructor when taking the £3,400-a-month pad last year.
But The Sun on Sunday can reveal she advertises online as "Diverse Stacey" and boasts she is "London's hottest, filthiest and goddamn wildest woman".
Clean-living Lampard, 39, and TV star wife Christine Bleakley live in a £10million mansion two miles from the rented home in Fulham.
A pal of the dad of two said: "Frank obviously knew nothing about this. He will be looking into the matter immediately.".
When our reporter visited Davina last week she said: "I love this place. I have a roof garden. It's perfect for me.".
Neighbours in the street, just a mile from Chelsea's Stamford Bridge stadium, include families and wealthy bankers who have no idea of the sordid goings-on. Davina boasts on her online profile: "I am a genuine nymphomaniac, I love all things sexual.
"I have lots of beautiful girlfriends I love to play with. "I have a huge selection of outfits from lingerie to latex and uniforms. I love to have wrestle sessions covered in baby oil.
Frank, who owns a number of properties, was not aware of the tenants activities. "I am pretty strong and can give most men a fireman's lift over my shoulder without any issue.
The profile adds: "Stacey is notorious for being the most open-minded and adventurous girl you will meet. "There really is nothing she won't enjoy exploring. If it's wrong and kinky, she is your woman.
"Stacey is a gold medallist in the bodybuilding world and has the body of a goddess. You will be completely hooked by this Tigress.".
Neighbours in the street, just a mile from Chelsea's Stamford Bridge stadium, include families and wealthy bankers. Ace Lampard bought the three-bed home for £1. 3million in 2013 while still a Chelsea player.
Davina says punters can make their own movies there "as long as the film is taken on my phone and my face is covered".
Our reporter booked the 5ft 5in dominatrix via an escort agency and was told to bring £800 in cash for a two-hour session. When she opened her front door, he said: "Hi, are you Stacey?".
She told him to be quiet adding: "Don't shout out Stacey, it's not my real name obviously. With Spandau Ballet playing on the sound system Davina hugged our man before beckoning him in.
In the front room, she tottered in red heels while pointing out her bodybuilding trophies. Then she poured our man a large glass of red wine before counting the money.
Davina films kinky sessions at the £2m London pad.
The 37-year-old boasts on her online profile that she is a genuine nymphomaniac.
Davina told our reporter she could provide drugs.
Davina claimed to be a fitness instructor when taking the £3,400-a-month pad. She told him she could provide drugs, saying: "I have a little bit. If I sell it technically I'm drug dealing. So obviously you can give me a tip.".
Accepting a £50 note she handed our reporter a white wrap and said: "We always have everything here. Tests later revealed it to be less than a gram of cocaine.
Davina then offered a tour. First stop was a downstairs room taken up with an inflatable paddling pool. She explained: "I did a role play the other week with a guy I've known for ages. I was with two other girls.
"We were supposed to be in rubber but I was on a bender the night before and I got up late. I only had a foot pump for the pool so I was sweating.
"I was naked and then I couldn't find my latex so instead I opened the door in welly boots because they were rubber. Otherwise I was completely naked.
"I was a farmyard manager in my welly boots and stockings. I covered the pool in chocolate mousse. I've been trying to clean up ever since.". Davina then offered our reporter a Japanese "nuru" massage, explaining: "It's really sensual and erotic.
Politely declining the rubdown, our reporter was led to the first floor to see the sex swing.
"I've spanked a few girls. I tie people up a lot because it tells you a lot about what someone actually likes. Especially with a blindfold on.".
Footie legend Frank had an illustrious career with England and Chelsea.
Clean-living Lampard and wife Christine Bleakley live in a £10million mansion two miles from the rented home.
Pride of place on the wall in a bedroom was a scroll reading: "World's best nymphomaniac. This certificate is awarded to Diverse Stacey in recognition of her degenerate and deviant sexual performance.".
Pointing to a leather whip, she complained it had been damaged by being chewed on by her dog. Our reporter then left. Midfielder Lampard started his career at West Ham before becoming Chelsea's all-time leading goalscorer with 211 in all competitions.
He won 106 England caps and played for New York City and Manchester City before announcing his retirement in February.
By Laura Armstrong, Sunday Showbiz Editor FORMER England and Chelsea ace Frank Lampard has a reputation as one of the nicest men in football, and he will be shocked to the core by our revelations today.
Like many celebrated players, he has amassed an impressive property portfolio during his career and employs an expert team to manage it for him. So Diverse Stacey's exploits behind closed doors will come totally out of the blue to him.
No doubt he will be tasking those who are in charge of the property to take immediate action. During his playing days he amassed a property empire worth tens of millions.
He owns many homes with his dad, former West Ham star Frank Senior. Lampard's portfolio includes a £10million six-bedroom townhouse in Chelsea and a £7million mansion close to the Blues' training ground in Surrey.
He also owns a four-bedroom house in Barcelona, home city of his ex Elen Rives, two houses in Cambridge and three flats in London's Docklands.
A spokesman for the star said last night: "He has a number of properties, all of which are managed by an agency, who will be investigating these serious claims immediately. Christine Bleakley admits Frank Lampard dreams about her having an affair.
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