>> RICHARD ANKLAM IS EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE NEW MEXICO TAX
RESEARCH INSTITUTE.
RICHARD THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE.
>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.
>> FRED NATHAN, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THINK NEW MEXICO.
THANKS FOR COMING IN.
>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME AS WELL.
>> RICHARD, I WANT TO START WITH YOU.
THE LEGISLATURE MOVED SURPRISINGLY QUICKLY IN THE
FIRST TWO WEEKS TO FIX THE HOLE IN THE CURRENT BUDGET
YEAR, THAT IS, IN JUNE.
WHAT DID THEY DO THERE?
>> WELL, THEY BASICALLY JUST WENT INTO A SECOND SPECIAL
SESSION.
THEY DIDN'T REALLY FIX THE PROBLEM IN THE LAST SPECIAL
SESSION WE HAD IN NOVEMBER.
THINGS GOT WORSE.
PERHAPS THEY DIDN'T DO ENOUGH GIVEN THE ELECTION CYCLE, BUT
THAT IS WHAT THEY GOT DOWN TO THE BUSINESS OF WHEN CONVENED
THIS YEAR WAS FIXING THE CURRENT YEAR BUDGE CRISIS AND
THEY APPEAR TO HAVE ACCOMPLISHED THAT, I THINK.
>> WITH A BUNCH OF LITTLE NIPS AND TUCKS AND CUTS?
>> SWAPS AND DEFERRALS, YES.
>> NOW, THEY HAVE AN EVEN HARDER JOB BECAUSE WE HAVE THE
NEXT FISCAL YEAR THAT STARTS IN JULY AND WE HAVE AN EVEN
BIGGER HOLE THERE.
WHAT ARE SOME OF THE WAYS THEY ARE LOOKING AT FIXING NEXT
YEAR.
>> NEXT YEAR, I THINK ANYTHING IS ON THE TABLE.
WE STILL HAVE A DEFICIT.
IT IS WORSE THAN WHAT THEY HAD TO DEAL WITH THIS YEAR.
TAXES ARE SORT OF ON THE TABLE.
GOVERNOR DOESN'T WANT TO TALK ABOUT TAXES, BUT, CERTAINLY,
IT IS SIMPLE ARITHMETIC.
EITHER DECREASE COSTS OR INCREASE REVENUE OR A LITTLE
BIT OF BOTH, TO SOLVE YOUR PROBLEM.
WE HAVE TO BALANCE OUR BUDGET ONE WAY OR THE OTHER.
>> IT IS A BIG CRISIS, A LOT OF MONEY.
PEOPLE ARE SAYING IT IS THE WORST THEY CAN REMEMBER.
DOES THAT SOUND RIGHT?
>> THAT DOESN'T SOUND RIGHT, BECAUSE WE DID HAVE THE GREAT
DEPRESSION, AFTER ALL, AND BACK THEN, WE JUST HAD
PROPERTY TAXES AND PROPERTY TAXES PLUMMETED.
SO I THINK WE HAVE SEEN WORSE BUT IN RECENT MEMORY, YOU'RE
RIGHT, I DON'T THINK I CAN REMEMBER ANYTHING QUITE THIS
SEVERE.
>> NOW, YOU KNOW, I WAS IN A COMMITTEE HEARING YESTERDAY
AND I UNDERSTOOD, I THINK, ABOUT 8% OF WHAT THEY SAID.
I HAVE BEEN AROUND A WHILE.
HOW TRANSPARENT IS IT WHEN THEY MAKE ALL THESE TINY CUTS
FROM FUNDS WE HAVE NEVER HEARD OF?
>> IT IS NOT VERY TRANSPARENT AT ALL TO THE REGULAR PERSON,
EVEN TO SOMEONE LIKE YOU, WHO IS AROUND THE LEGISLATURE ALL
THE TIME.
AND THAT MAY BE AN ISSUE THAT BUBBLES UP THIS SESSION,
BECAUSE MORE AND MORE GROUPS, GROUPS LIKE LEAGUE OF WOMEN
VOTERS, FOUNDATION FOR OPEN GOVERNMENT, ARE SAYING, WE
SHOULD MAKE THIS BUDGETING PROCESS MUCH MORE TRANSPARENT.
AND THERE IS TOO MUCH OF A TENDENCY TO GO BEHIND CLOSED
DOORS, MAKE AN ARRANGEMENT AND THEN COME OUT IN THE PUBLIC
AND RATIFY THAT DECISION.
SO, THAT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH THIS SESSION.
>> RICHARD, MANY PEOPLE ARE SAYING THAT WE ARE TOO
DEPENDENT ON OIL AND GAS REVENUE AND THAT IS WHY WE
HAVE THESE CRAZY CRISES.
HOW COULD WE PROTECT OURSELVES FROM WILD SWINGS IN A MARKET
WE CAN'T CONTROL?
>> WE CAN DO A BETTER JOB OF BUDGETING AND SHOWING
RESTRAINT.
WHAT WE TEND TO DO IS WE GO THROUGH THESE BOOM AND BUST
CYCLES WITH THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY.
WHEN PRICES ARE GOOD, ALL SINS ARE FORGIVEN.
WE CAN DO ALL KINDS OF STUFF, SOME NOT SO SMART, OTHERS GOOD
STUFF TOO. AND WE FORGET ABOUT THE FACT
THAT THE PRICE WILL DROP AGAIN AND THAT CAUSES PROBLEMS
IN OUR GENERAL FUND.
GIVE OR TAKE A THIRD COMES FROM OIL AND GAS, DIRECTLY OR
INDIRECTLY, AND THAT IS A BIG CHUNK.
AND, SO, THERE IS MECHANISMS YOU CAN BUILD WITH GOOD
RESERVES AND BUT IT REQUIRES DISCIPLINE AND THAT IS
SOMETHING THAT IT IS HARD FOR POLITICIANS TO HAVE BECAUSE
EVERYTHING IS A VERY SHORT TERM FOCUS TYPICALLY.
>> WE'RE ALWAYS -- I THINK, THIS HAPPENS TOO OFTEN, THERE
IS TOO MUCH OF AN EMPHASIS OR RECENCY BIAS WHERE WE
OVER-EMPHASIZE WHAT JUST HAPPENS.
SO WHEN PRICES ARE GOOD, WE TEND TO BE OVERLY BULLISH.
WHEN PRICES ARE BAD, WE TEND TO BE OVERLY BEARISH.
I AM SORT OF SKEPTICAL ABOUT THIS ASSUMPTION THAT IT IS A
300 TO 500 MILLION DEFICIT, BECAUSE THAT SEEMS TO OVERLOOK
SOME THINGS THAT ARE GOING ON RIGHT NOW.
FOR EXAMPLE, A FEW WEEKS AGO, EXXON, ANOTHER MAJOR OIL
COMPANY, SPENT 10 BILLION TO BUY UP THE LAND IN THE PERMIAN
BASIN WHICH IS NOW CONSIDERED THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OIL PLACE
IN THE COUNTRY.
AND, SO, THAT MEANS MORE RIGS.
I MEAN, EXXON IS NOT SPENDING ALL THAT MONEY FOR THE
LANDSCAPE.
THEY ARE SPENDING IT BECAUSE THEY ARE GOING TO DRILL.
THAT CREATES JOBS, THAT IS GOING TO CREATE ECONOMIC
ACTIVITY.
AT SOME POINT THERE IS A REVERSING TO THE MEAN AND I
JUST WONDER WHETHER THINGS AREN'T QUITE AS DIRE AS THEY
HAVE BEEN PRESENTED.
>> WE WON'T KNOW FOR A LITTLE BIT.
YOU'RE BIG ISSUE LAST SESSION WAS INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDING AND
THE PROCESS WE USE TO DO THAT.
THE REFORMS YOU WANTED DIDN'T HAPPEN LAST YEAR.
SO, YOU'RE STILL ON THAT TOPIC NOW.
YOU ARGUE THE WAY WE DO CAPITAL OUTLAY IS WASTEFUL AND
INEFFICIENT.
HOW WOULD FIXING THAT SYSTEM HELP OUR ECONOMY?
>> WELL, I MEAN, RIGHT NOW WE ARE GOING TO HAVE THIS DEBATE
AS TO WHETHER TO RAISE TAXES OR CUT SPENDING AND WE ARE
ARGUING THERE IS A THIRD WAY WHICH IS TO ADOPT POLICIES
THAT WILL CREATE JOBS.
AND THIS IS A GREAT EXAMPLE.
RIGHT NOW WE SPEND A LOT OF THAT MONEY ON THINGS LIKE
WRESTLING MATS, FOOTBALL HELMETS, SILVERWARE FOR SENIOR
CITIZEN CENTERS.
WE SHOULD BE SPENDING THAT ON INFRASTRUCTURE, ROADS AND
WATER SYSTEMS.
THOSE CREATE JOBS.
IN A NORMAL YEAR WE SPEND ABOUT 300 MILLION ON CAPITAL
OUTLAY AND INFRASTRUCTURE.
THAT SHOULD GENERATE ABOUT 8100 JOBS A YEAR.
BUT, BECAUSE THERE IS NO PLAN, THERE IS NO OBJECTIVE
CRITERIA, A LOT OF THESE PROJECTS NEVER HAPPEN AND
MONEY SITS IDLE ON THE SIDELINE.
SO, IF WE CREATE A BETTER PROCESS, WHICH WE ARE TRYING
TO DO WITH THIS BILL THAT WILL BE INTRODUCED ON FRIDAY, WE
THINK THERE WILL BE A PLAN.
THERE WILL BE OBJECTIVE CRITERIA AND THAT MONEY WILL
GET SPENT AND THAT WILL LEAD TO MORE JOB DEVELOPMENT.
>> NOT GOING TO FIX THE PROBLEM WE HAVE RIGHT NOW.
>> NOT RIGHT NOW, BUT COULD START AS EARLY AS NEXT YEAR IF
WE PASS THE BILL THIS YEAR AND CREATE JOBS FOR NEXT YEAR.
>> LAWMAKERS ARE UNDER A TON OF PRESSURE TO CUT, CUT, CUT
EVERYWHERE THEY CAN.
OTHERS ARE SAYING, WE CUT AS FAR AS WE CAN GO AND WE HAVE
TO HAVE MORE MONEY COMING IN.
THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT THINGS LIKE RAISING OR INSTITUTING
TAXES ON GAS, LIQUOR, TOBACCO, THINGS WE BUY FROM AMAZON AND
OTHER PLACES ONLINE.
AND ON NEW AND USED CARS.
THE CHAMBER OF COMMERCE SAID THAT THERE IS WIGGLE ROOM
HERE.
THEY MIGHT BE ABLE TO GO FOR A LITTLE SOMETHING BUT GOVERNOR
HAS NOT YET SAID THAT SHE COULD BUDGE FROM HER NO NEW
TAXES PLEDGE.
HOW CAN LAWMAKERS AND THE GOVERNOR FIND SOME COMPROMISE
HERE WHERE EVERYONE CAN SAVE FACE?
>> WELL THAT IS EASY, WE JUST CLOSE LOOPHOLES.
EVERYTHING IS FAIR.
>> CLOSE TAX LOOPHOLES.
WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?
>> IT IS SEMANTICS, IN THE EYES OF THE BEHOLDER.
NOT ALLOWED TO USE THE T WORD, RIGHT?
REVENUE ENHANCEMENTS.
>> IF YOU CALL IT CLOSING A TAX LOOPHOLE, IT IS NOT A NEW
TAX BUT YOU ARE RAISING REVENUES?
>> YES.
>> WHAT ARE SOME OF THE LOOPHOLES WE MIGHT LOOK AT?
>> WELL, YOU KNOW, THE REMOTE SALES ISSUE.
INTERNET COMMERCE.
YOU COULD BRAND THAT AS A LOOPHOLE IF YOU WANTED TO, I
THINK.
THERE IS FAIRNESS ISSUES AND ISSUES OF LOCAL BUSINESSES AND
THINGS LIKE THAT, BUT YOU CAN ALSO CALL IT A TAX INCREASE.
>> IF I BUY A BOOK AT A LOCAL BOOK STORE, I PAY SALES TAX ON
IT, BUT IF I BUY AT AMAZON, I DON'T.
>> CORRECT AND THAT IS NOT VERY GOOD FOR THE LOCAL
BUSINESS, EITHER, SO, YOU KNOW, I KNOW THERE WILL BE
PROPOSALS ON THAT SUBJECT.
GOVERNOR DOESN'T SEEM TO BE VERY WARM ON THAT IDEA.
IF YOU WANTED TO SAY IT IS MORE ABOUT FAIRNESS AND NOT SO
MUCH A TAX INCREASE, THAT IS AN EXAMPLE OF SOMETHING IT
WOULD BE EASIER TO PAINT THAT PICTURE.
>> AND BUSINESSES COULD GET BEHIND THINGS LIKE THAT?
>> YES.
>> MOST BUSINESSES ARE BEHIND THAT.
IT AFFECTS RETAILERS, AND, YOU KNOW, AND A FEW PEOPLE OUTSIDE
THE STATE BUT CONSUMERS DON'T -- NONE OF US -- WE ARE
ALL FOR TAXES AS LONG AS WE DON'T HAVE TO PAY THEM.
THAT IS THE PROBLEM.
SO, NONE OF US WANT TO PAY TAX ON AMAZON BUT DON'T WANT LOCAL
BUSINESSES TO GO OUT OF BUSINESS AS A RESULT.
AND WE NEED MONEY, SO, YOU KNOW, YOU DON'T WANT A LEAKY
SYSTEM.
LEAKY TAX SYSTEMS ARE DUMB AND INVARIABLY IMPLODE.
IF WE DON'T FIX IT, IT WILL FIX ITSELF OVER TIME.
THAT JUST WON'T HELP US BALANCE THE BUDGET IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF YEARS.
>> ARE THERE ANY OTHER LOOPHOLES THAT WE ARE GOING TO
SEE DEBATED IN COMING WEEKS?
>> LOTS OF THINGS THAT YOU CALL LOOPHOLES OR PEOPLE WILL.
ANYONE'S PROJECT WILL BE A LOOPHOLE.
IF YOU WANT TO INCREASE TOBACCO TAXES, WE'LL SAY IT IS
A LOOPHOLE.
IF YOU WANT TO INCREASE PERSONAL INCOME TAXES, WE'LL
CALL IT A LOOPHOLE.
I AM BEING FACETIOUS.
WE WANT TO GET AWAY FROM THE SEMANTICS AND THE DEMAGOGUERY.
WE HAVE A REAL PROBLEM.
WE HAVE A FISCAL SYSTEM AND A TAX SYSTEM THAT FUNDS IT AND
IT IS ALL ABOUT THAT SYSTEM.
IT IS NOT ALL ABOUT DID WE RAISE A PENNY HERE AND CUT A
PENNY THERE.
THAT IS GETTING INTO THE WEEDS.
THAT IS POLITICIANS.
>> YOU KNOW, WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THESE TAXES ON ALCOHOL
AND GAS AND CARS AND THERE ARE PEOPLE THAT SAY
WE NEED TO BRING BACK THE TAX WE USED TO HAVE ON FOOD.
YOU THINK THAT IS A BAD IDEA?
>> YES, I DO.
BUT I WANT TO SAY, I AGREE WITH RICHARD.
I DO THINK WE DESPERATELY NEED TAX REFORM AND THAT HAS BEEN
BROUGHT OUT IN THE OPEN BY THE DROP IN OIL AND GAS TAXES.
I WOULD JUST ARGUE THAT IF YOU'RE GOING TO DO TAX REFORM,
AND WHAT WE NEED TO DO IS BROADEN THE BASE BY CLOSING
LEGITIMATE LOOPHOLES, AND DIVERSIFYING OUR REVENUE BASE.
BUT, I DON'T THINK THAT TAXING FOOD OR MEDICINE OR PHYSICIANS
MAKES A LOT OF SENSE.
ONE THING THAT RICHARD SAYS, WHICH I TOTALLY AGREE WITH, IS
WE NEED A TAX SYSTEM THAT LOOKS LIKE OTHER STATES.
AND WHEN I LOOK AROUND THE COUNTRY, 34 STATES EXEMPT FOOD
FROM TAX.
INCLUDING ALL OF OUR SURROUNDING STATES.
SO THAT IS PART OF OUR SYSTEM I DON'T THINK IS BROKEN, BUT,
THERE IS LOTS OF AREAS WHERE I THINK WE CAN CREATE REVENUE
NEUTRAL REFORMS THAT BROADEN THE BASE AND LOWER THE RATES.
>> SPEAKING OF SURROUNDING STATES THAT TAX THINGS,
MARIJUANA, RICHARD.
THERE ARE SEVERAL PROPOSALS UP THERE THIS YEAR THAT WOULD
LEGALIZE RECREATIONAL MARIJUANA AND THERE ARE
PROPOSALS TO THEN TAX THE HECK OUT OF IT.
IF WE DID THAT, HOW MUCH MONEY ARE WE TALKING ABOUT?
HOW MUCH HELP WOULD THAT BE.
>> THAT IS A FUNCTION OF QUANTITY AND PRICE.
YOU KNOW, OR TAX RATE, RIGHT?
SO, I THINK THE TAX FOUNDATION DID A 50 STATE STUDY ON THAT
PARTICULAR QUESTION USING, 15, 20, 25 TAX RATES AND WE RANGED
ANYWHERE FROM 25 MILLION TO OVER 50 IN THEIR STUDY.
I HAVEN'T LOOKED AT NUMBERS MYSELF.
COLORADO HAS SEEN BETTER NUMBERS THAN THAT BUT THEY
HAVE THREE TIMES THE POPULATION WE HAVE.
AND THEY HAD A BUMP, YOU KNOW, IN TOURISM AND THRILL SEEKERS
AND THINGS LIKE THAT.
THOSE EFFECTS GO AWAY OVER TIME AS OTHER STATES ADOPT
SIMILAR LAWS.
NEW MEXICO WOULDN'T SEE THAT TO THE EXTENT THAT COLORADO
DID, BUT IT WOULD STILL RAISE POTENTIALLY MONEY, BUT IT
WOULDN'T RAISE IT TODAY BECAUSE YOU HAVE TO IMPLEMENT
ENTIRELY NEW TAX REGIME AND PROGRAM, REGULATORY SCHEME
LIKE COLORADO DID.
THERE WOULD BE COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT AND IT
WOULD TAKE TIME.
>> 50 MILLION IS A BIG PART OF THE BUDGET HOLE THAT WE JUST
HAD TO PATCH FOR THE CURRENT FISCAL YEAR.
>> THAT IS CORRECT.
>> SO, WHERE DO YOU THINK THAT IS GOING TO GO?
>> WELL, I DON'T BELIEVE THE GOVERNOR IS A FAN.
I DON'T THINK SHE CALLS IT A REGRESSIVE TAX INCREASE.
I SAY THAT AS A JOKE BECAUSE IT WOULD BE, BUT, I THINK HER
REASONS ARE CRIME RELATED, YOU KNOW.
THERE IS WORKFORCE SAFETY ISSUES.
THERE IS A LOT OF LEGITIMATE DEBATES TO BE HAD AROUND THE
SUBJECT OF MARIJUANA.
I DON'T LIKE TO START THE CONVERSATION BY ASSUMING THAT
NO ONE SMOKES IT NOW BECAUSE THERE IS A TAX BASE THAT WE
DON'T TAX.
BUT YOU DON'T NECESSARILY WANT TO ENCOURAGE UNHEALTHY
BEHAVIORS EITHER.
THERE IS A GOOD LEGITIMATE DEBATE TO BE HAD BUT THERE IS
MONEY ON THE TABLE AS WELL.
>> WE WOULD HAVE THOSE EXACT SAME DEBATES ON A WHOLE HOST
OF SIMILAR AND VERY DIFFERENT IDEAS FOR THE REST OF THE
SESSION.
THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US.
>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING US.
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