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Academy where we have more detailed videos so chumhum's over and it's time
to come to earth or back down to earth with a crash and the trading style that
you're going to adopt at these big meetings it's going to be very different
from what you see on a day-to-day basis typically and therefore you're going to
trade them differently I've made it no secret that I like those big meetings
why do I like them while my strike rate is exceptionally high at these big
meetings and if you know that you're very very likely to get a positive trade
out of the meeting what are you going to do you're gonna stick in five as 10s and
20s and 50s no you're gonna go for it you're gonna throw as much money of it
as it at it as you can and as a consequence that's why I like them
because it's I know I'm probably likely to win and it's just a question of how
hard can I push it so I push really hard during these big meetings and that's why
I get those big results but those big results are unusual not only are they
unusual in the market as a whole and so therefore don't set your bar at a 5 600
quit or consecutive amounts like that you want to set your bar much lower and
the reason for that is the market generally can't tolerate bigger staking
so when we transition out of a big meeting back to a more standard fodder
you're gonna have to reappraise the way that you trade but that's fine that's
exactly what you do I flex my trading style depending upon what's in front of
me it's a nonsense to say don't trade châlon because there's too much money
there trade chat them but just modify how you trade it and it's the same
coming out of a big meeting there's no way when I look at the card today that
I'm going to be using two and a half grand stakes or something to trade a
race today because the market just will not take it will do one or two things it
could just stop the activity in the market at that particular point you know
I'm trying to get an order filled and it won't pass through it or the other thing
that can happen is that basically the market gets scared and starts running
away from your order and therefore you can't get
filled when you're attempting to close your order so yeah it's important to
understand that you've got to flex in and out depending upon what's in front
of you if the markets got loads of money coming through you expecting the amount
amount matched to be very high then you can increase your stakes and you can
really do a lot within that particular market but if that's not there then you
just pull your risk down by reducing your level of stakes and you know while
it's lovely to see those big greens that I post and you know and I'm posting them
regularly through Cheltenham all I did this year was just pick off one from
each individual day but there were loads all the way through those 28 races it's
not realistic to think that that's typically how the market trades maybe at
a big meeting in an ass get the guineas or any of those other things you can
sort of expect to get some big totals but of course if you're starting out or
you're an intermediate trader you're not going to have enough practice of those
big meetings to be able to push really hard so you're probably not going to get
those the thing that I've noticed a charm this year is actually the all the
the queue size is getting smaller and that's because the market is getting a
little bit more volatile so that's actually bringing in the opportunity for
people to trade it a bit more conventionally like you see on a day to
day basis but as we transition out of those big meetings and in to the normal
type of trading that you expect to see it's really more a case of trying to
stay out of trouble not doing anything stupid but also when you look at it it's
really a case of trying to get a good result overall it you know it doesn't
sound impressive getting sort of an average of 10 pounder race when you've
just seen me post a P&L of 500 quid that I've managed to achieve at a Cheltenham
were a big meeting however it's those are the ones that are really important
because over the course of the year you could easily do ten thousand of those so
if you can average a 10 or a race for example I'm not saying that you can and
I'm not setting an expectation here we're saying that you manage to average
10 pound a race and you're doing 10,000 races that's obviously a lot of money so
you know maybe you don't even need to set your target at that level you could
set it much smaller and still achieve something useful but the way that it
arrives is going to be very different from
what you would expect and a major meeting at a major meeting I expect a
string of profits and I'm pushing as hard as I can to make those profits as
big as possible every now and again I I screw up and you know one of those races
that really should be in a profit I pushed too hard and it just falls off
the edge of a cliff so even you know it's it's rare even though I did do it
last year it's rare to get in all of them absolutely correct
you usually mess up on one or two however when I'm trading during the week
next week I'm going to be very defensive I'm going to lower my stakes right down
and I'm just looking not to make any mistakes and the profit comes from a
combination of profits and losses so it's an overall figure that I'm looking
for I'm not looking to go on some ridiculous run or bag some enormous
amounts of profit the way that I'm gonna do it is I'm gonna say you know I'm
gonna trade 30 fully races over the course of the day and I'm going to end
up ahead of things by the end of the day so for example if you have a strike rate
of 75 percent and you make a tenner 75 percent of the time but you lose 20
pounds 25 percent of the time you end up + 10 pound over the mix of like sort of
10 20 30 or so races so the strike rate in the amount you win and lose are going
to interact quite heavily and the way that they tend to interact is it tends
to be uneven I've given you like a very clear number though people love clear
defined numbers but it never works like that the reality is your P&L is going to
be like minus 5 plus 10 minus 7 plus 20 minus 30 plus 75 and it's going to be
really really bumpy all the way along there and at the end of that you'll end
up with a strike rate you know of some level 60 70 percent or something and
it's the mixture of your strike rate and the profits and losses that deliver you
the profit at the end of the week now I'm going to bring up the spreadsheet
here of some activity way back in 2007 and if you look at the way that the P&L
was created I ended up on a very big total by the end of the month but that
total was made up of loads of little positives and negatives
I just kept on chipping away and the methodology that I have is that chip
away at the market and I'm trying to get a profit at relatively low risk now I
don't know how that profit is going to arrive it's basically going to be
positive here negative positive positive positive negative and I'm just trying to
make a good decision based upon what I see in the market and believe it or not
generally what I'm trying to do is avoid a loss I'm trying to get myself in the
position where the chance of a loss is much lower and then profits arrive off
of the back of that that's generally how I tend to trade trying to get myself
into a good position where a loss or a chance of a loss is minimized and then
I'm letting the profit run or and if the profit starts to look good then I may
just push it a little bit harder and try and get that profit a little bit higher
but generally the sequence of events almost looks random if you look at the
progression if you look at the equity curve over the course of this particular
month in January 2007 you can see the equity curve seems to just smoothly go
upwards with a little couple of bumps you get the odd cock-up and the odd
positive result but generally the equity curve rises
smoothly but when you look at the individual results you'll notice that
there's a right old mission there some of you know quite positive some are
negative and it's you know there's no clearly defined path and that is really
if you're trading properly that's typically what you tend to find now if
you wind forward over a number of years that's more or less exactly the way that
my P&L looks outside of a big meeting in that I'm getting little profits and
getting little negatives and overall it's all coming out in a mix by the end
of the week by the end of the month by the end of the year and the advantage of
doing it this way as the more markets you trade then generally the more money
that you make you're generally trying to get as many trades through as possible
in as many markets and the more that you do that knowing that you have a positive
expectancy means that you typically end up over any particular period and that's
why I like racing because those positives and negatives balance
themselves out really really quickly and over the course of the week you can do
pretty well even though you're probably not going on any particular long winning
run because you're not really going on any particular I'm losing run either but
the way that the results appear we'll be sort of not random because
you've got some logic in there but they're just not coming in a regular
pattern I think is what I'm trying to say here and and that can be frustrating
at times because you can be chipping away for ages and nothing happens and
then you get that big result or you could get a nasty negative and then you
just graduate your chip away at it with loads of positives and sometimes this is
what catches people out when trading because it doesn't have that nice smooth
approach and it can be a little bit stressful when you're having a bad day
and when you having a good day can lead to overconfidence so typically my
attitude my desire when we trade on a normal week is just to do the best I can
and every individual market try and minimize where I'm likely to make a loss
by maximizing the entry positions within the market and managing the trade well
and I'm just chipping away each one as frequently as I can to try and end up to
a bigger total at the end of whatever period I'm measuring it over now when
you first start I suggest you measure over a month but maybe when you're a bit
more experienced you'd want to measure over a week by measuring it on an
individual day or checking your P&L as that is progressing as a disaster
because it will influence the way that you trade the next market whether you're
behind or ahead will lead to overconfidence or it may alter the way
that you trade the next market so all I do is just chip away each market do the
best that I can and then I look at the P&L at the end of the day I go yeah that
went well or maybe I'll do better tomorrow but yeah when you're coming out
of a big meeting you know don't believe these big meetings are the norm the
mundane stuff is where a lot of the money comes from and it's going to be
small positives and small negatives but adding up over a period of time so yeah
prepare yourself for those types of markets now while we wait for the next
big meeting but that's how I'll be looking to trade over the next few weeks
you
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