Sean Emory: Informed Investing, Gaming Industry, Gold & Silver, and More david moadel finance investors day trading stock stock market
welcome to looking at the markets with
David Modell today featured guest is mr.
Sean Emery mr. Emery is the founder and
chief investment officer of Avery &
Company this is a firm that offers a
variety of services including market
research to individual and institutional
investors along with specialized
investment solutions he's currently the
author at the market meter com and that
link is in the description of the video
prior to this he was the senior
investment analyst and VP at CFG capital
for five years a family office with over
a billion dollars in assets mr. Emery is
also a prolific author and article
writer at such esteemed websites as
seeking alpha calm and seeit market calm
mr. Emery thank you so much for joining
me today no thank you David yeah
absolutely
and I just wanted to get a little bit on
your background in finance and I hear
that there might be a sports connection
in your past as well of course of course
yes I actually started playing baseball
back in when I was young
within that I got very I guess attracted
to fantasy sports and I talk about that
quite a bit
how fantasy sports is is a good analogy
of how the markets to work in terms of
you're buying players at a discount in
in theory and trying to sell them off to
your friends at a higher value or when
they've reached their intrinsic value in
their the height of their careers and in
theory it sounds very similar to what
you would consider good investing buy
low sell high and and watch these
companies or these these players
flourish
in terms of Finance I got a sense early
on when I mean my father would have CNBC
on growing up went to college and even
in high school was it was very very
interested in the analytical side of it
all and throughout college became he
began working for the endowment as an
analyst and was at a hedge fund and also
gfg capital where we were managing
assets but but from there I learned a
lot in terms of being an equity analyst
being more of a global macro analyst at
some of those roles and got a good sense
of so many different varieties of
investing where I think all of that has
helped me know where I want to invest
and where I don't want to invest and
what I'm best at and what I'm not so
good at and I think all that's um
continuing on it's never it's never
finished if for all those investors out
there I think that's that's a forever
takeaway that you're always learning and
and that's where I end today yeah and I
just speaking of where you are today
just wanted to get a sense of and we're
going to talk about the market meter in
a minute but just wanted to get a sense
of what it's like the day-to-day grind
of managing literally billions of
dollars at an investment firm I'm sure
it's exactly like the wolf of Wall
Street right well not quite in terms of
some of the the final occurrences but
the I mean it's a grind right it's it's
you have a lot of responsibility on your
hands first and foremost so for those
that are in that position I mean you
have a fiduciary responsibility and I
mean I always say act as if if it's your
own capital and honestly if you wouldn't
put your own cap on why would you put
someone else's capital to work in those
same investments or anything of those
sorts show I mean the day to day grind
is is literally during earn and seizing
its
it's very intense in terms of trying to
on all the different earnings call or
listening to them thereafter because we
miss some or keeping up with especially
today keeping up with the business side
of it all because now at Avery I own the
business so I have another addition to
responsibilities but it's a day-to-day
grind it's it's continuing to analyze
companies
you always get fundamental information
maybe six seven eight times a year and
that's when you start to work on your
current companies and and in the
meantime you're trying to find special
ideas that that will allow yourself to
continue to make make money at the end
of the day and that's what you're doing
all day is is trying to uncover ideas
deal sourcing things of that sort
I like the sound of that uncovering
ideas and capital preservation of course
which I know
looking at the market meter calm right
now
I know that capital preservation is what
you're all about and what Avery and
company is all about I know that because
it says right on the front I don't like
losing money period and that's a great
philosophy it reminds me of a Warren
Buffett quote rule number one don't lose
money
rule number two see rule number one so
there you go what can you tell us about
the market meter calm I know there's an
excellent blog on there the market meter
blog and what can you as well as the
website what can you tell us about these
services that Avery and company have to
offer yeah so the market meter com
actually started years back in terms of
a personal blog and allowed me to speak
my mind very simply put but also take
whatever top of mind right and and
whether it's a company specific or
market specific and and share my
thoughts on it so that's really what you
get there is top of the mind type of
topics and ideas Avery is a investment
firm so we are
someone that focuses a great deal of
attention on research everything from
companies specific to more macro and
taking that all that research that we
compile in-house and generating again it
all comes down to unique ideas but it in
order to come up with a unique idea that
that again preserving capital by way of
understanding what you're investing in
you have to do a ton and ton of research
behind that I'm to get to your end
conclusion so again research firm that
comes up with ideas and then invest
those within several of our portfolios
sure absolutely and wanted to talk about
speaking of your portfolio's you know
I'm not going to ask exactly where
you're positioned right now but I am
curious as to what you're bullish on and
bearish on at the moment
2017 is almost halfway over now it's it
seems like a frothy or topping market
you know should we be again this is not
investment advice in this video but you
know should people be in equities right
now or should they be hedging with
something else
bolla okay so I'm not a big believer in
hedging just for the purpose of if
you're hedging you're you're on your
unch pure that's my general philosophy
and and if you're unsure then you
probably shouldn't invest period but
we're looking for big ideas big themes
that are transforming either niche
markets larger markets and within that I
mean some of the areas just more broadly
and it was we get in our our 2017 themes
and Beyond report at the beginning of
the year Aaron one was the
transformation of a legacy type of
industries and adapt adaptation there
right so think of insurance think of
payroll if you just look inside of
corporations today and even I mean a
couple years ago there was very old
school archaic systems in place
that need to be transformed and what
we've have been looking to discover
which companies are transforming that a
company and again it's not a
recommendation but a company that that
we continue to look at is a company
called guide wire that's helping the
insurance industry turn from a more
archaic everything done internally and
and a lot of ton of paperwork to a more
digital platform if you look at
companies like and I've been pretty
public in terms of just talking about
the company Electronic Arts which the
whole gaming industry is is becoming
much larger and scale but also
transforming into a more digital
platform where margins are expanding at
a rapid rate for all the big players
whether it's Activision take-two
Electronic Arts are all seeing the same
thing go look at their margin see how
they've expanded but in order for you to
know that you had to you had to start
following these stories and and and
understand what is really happening and
what's going to continue to happen in
some of those stories so that's really
where we're looking those are just brief
ideas in terms of of examples of the
themes that are in that are that are
taking place today but there's so many
other industries where that's where
that's happening and again we're looking
for companies that are extremely sticky
and have some sort of moat around the
business so good luck trying to compete
with with again some of those gaming
companies content creators that as those
player networks develop and grow it's
going to be harder and harder for a
competition to step in now there they've
added live services so the revenue model
is much more reoccurring and even like a
guide wire
I mean regulation governmental type of
necessities are required and languages
if you want to go in and scale in terms
of worldwide and there's just not that
many players out there that can compete
with them and all the different insurers
are moving in that direction and that's
why if you look at guidewire they're guy
they're guiding too uh I mean 15 a 25
percent revenue growth over the next
five seven years I mean because the
transformation is real and it's it's
it's going to take time for all of it to
occur but at the end of the day it's
that that's what we're looking for these
big ideas with huge runways yeah
interesting you mentioned looking at
guidance what are some other fundamental
aspects of a company that you look for
if you want to decide whether a company
or a or even a whole sector is strong
strong enough to put your capital into
it yeah so II so it's it really starts
off with like those economic modes right
where maybe maybe it's hard to switch
it's hard to it's hard to get in the
network of of what they're doing that's
that's so special that's the foundation
of it all but but when we're starting to
look more specific at companies I mean
some of the things is is how levered are
they if they want to do could they pay a
dividend they don't have to pay me a
dividend I rather than reinvest at
Kaplan or make more money on the market
opportunity but it's it's the quality of
their balance sheet because the last
thing you want is for your company to
run into cashflow problems and if you
have no debt I mean that becomes
something that is not as much of an
issue but at the end of the day you want
some debt because you want them to grow
at a quicker rate but I mean just
different factors we look at free cash
flow we're looking at margins what we're
listening to management teams across the
sector to see who's saying what and and
and what not but again within those
those different areas we're looking for
one company we're looking for that one
star that we think is going to be the
winner and it could be several winners
because that's typically what happens
but we want the winner and within that
again it comes down to quality it comes
down to grow if it comes down to
valuation and all those things have to
be analyzed and assessed before the
investment occurs you
so many things to look at and speaking
of looking at things sure we look at the
fundamentals always but how about the
technical side of things are you a chart
guy on any level do you look at charts
and are there any indicators that you
that you like to look at in particular
yeah so we do look at charts obviously
so the beauty of the of the private
markets is the fact that you don't have
to look at charts and and and whatnot
but the beauty of the public markets is
there's there's liquidity or for the
most part there's liquidity depending
where you're at and but with that with
quiddity it comes obviously the the lack
of benefit or the zero benefit of having
a price moves every day you're getting
reassessed every every second of the day
so focusing on technicals is important
especially at the entry levels we want
to start off on the right foot always
and in the short-term again companies
can continue to move lower and why move
into something that's trending
significantly lower where you want to
see a base start to form settling
momentum indicators like MACD and RSI
very simple stuff but using those on
various timeframes whether it's monthly
weekly daily and looking at moving
averages again we're focusing on support
trend within names that we want to own
fundamentally last thing I want is to
own something that is down 20% because a
fundamental news broke and I don't know
anything fundamentally about it and I I
wanted it because I saw RSI kick higher
and MACD tick higher and all these other
oscillators tell me that this was a buy
but at the end of the day news broke
that I can't control
and and and I don't know anything about
right so so if it's 19 percent lower on
something that I think is excessively
much more valuable
in theory I should be fine with that
makes sense we're combining the
fundamentals and the technicals but the
fundamentals definitely have to be in
place wanted to talk real quickly yeah
wanted to talk about precious metals if
you don't mind gold and silver I'm
looking at both of those are you looking
at them right now and what are you
thinking yeah so it's a golden silver I
mean I'm not necessarily a precious
metals guy but when it's just been
interesting over the last couple of
years how we've seen the rise and then
fall and then rise again of something
like gold and over the last several
years we've seen inflation settle in and
then pick back up and gold become more
of a more of a or more demand towards it
I mean just in general for both I don't
invest in either of them their input
costs and so many different factors but
again it comes back to my theory of how
I look at gold and silver and how I look
at at investments in general I like cash
right I mean I like to analyze things
based on cash because as an investor
when cash comes in you can reinvest it
and whatnot as opposed to something like
gold and silver which they have some use
cases but less use cases in terms of
some of the other things I'm talking
about but it's just interesting over the
last three to five years to see how how
high it's gone and how low it's gone in
such a short period of time based on
different theories whether it's it's
excessive balance sheets for the Fed
excessive balance sheets around the
world and then and then overlapping that
with something like a Bitcoin or all the
other crypto currencies and seeing all
these different movements combined it's
interesting that that's kind of my view
on it all sure and finally because I
know your time is valuable and I
appreciate you stopping by today I just
want to talk about how we protect
ourselves
are you a stoploss kind of guy
protective put options what is Europe or
do you just ride it out what is your
approach
- when things turn turn bad right so I'm
willing to write it out right if you get
hit today on a one on a one day move
August 2015 when when China devalued the
currencies I mean things like an F Lex
was down 20% in the morning and and if
you own Netflix for fundamental reasons
I guess you have to write it out but the
I don't protect myself in terms of
hedges I do use put options in terms of
writing them to move into some positions
so in a sense I'm I mean I'm hedging my
entry point maybe if you will buy I
don't know three five so depending on on
what kind of premium we're getting and
how low we can go but it's not an
outright hedge of any storage we do
again look at technicals so I am careful
and and I do pay close attention to
technicals in the sense of I mean if
we're making pies and all the different
momentum indicators of such are telling
me hey look this could have a serious
pull back and support isn't anywhere
close that could be something where we
simply go to cash and maybe we go to
cash and we start selling those foot
options to buy it another six seven
percent lower still holding the out like
the long bias but but ensuring that we
can absorb some of the what I would
consider foreseeing volatility in the
future and you're never going to get it
perfectly right but again if you're
trying to put that capital then if you
see some signals that are are sending
messages where hey we're going to have a
significant pullback that I think you
have to listen in the public markets and
try to protect some capital makes sense
I really appreciate this time you've
spent with me today the market meter
calm is the place to check out the
market meter blog and there's so much
great content in here also to check out
Avery and company people should go to
WWE every xyz.com dot XY yeah which is
interesting but
and if people wanted to check you out on
social media can they do that and how
would they do that
no of course I mean it could be stock
twits it can be a Twitter Twitter as a
it is underscore Sean David Sean is s
EAN
so underscore Sean David on Twitter I
mean just feel free to message me
anything you want got a ton of good
followers on there a lot of them are
active with me and we just get in
discussions of different stuff but I
post a lot on there I mean obviously
Twitter is I got a micro blog right so
some of my short terms ideas on of what
I'm thinking and earnings reports and
things like that typically would go on
my Twitter and it's a good place to
interact with everybody people should be
checking that out right now why not
check them out on Twitter check out the
market meter calm Sean I really
appreciate your time today thank you so
much for joining me on looking at the
markets no David thank you thanks so
much and and glad to be back at any time
you
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