[Music]
Thank You president Hennessy and this is a daunting venue I feel like we should
sing or something down steps Wow okay so future fest now today it's all about the
future and I can't imagine a better person to speak with about that than
Elon Musk he is forging the future as you all know across multiple industries
repeatedly in the most spectacular way in a way that others have failed before
him and perhaps unprecedented in history so I'm a big fan boy futurefest
originally I think bounced around and why this monthly this is a special month
for futurefest is that for those of you old enough sand it looks like maybe five
or six of you in the audience to have been around went back to the future the
movie came out they had this vision of the future in the second edition of that
series where they back sorted in a time warp to the future and it was October
2015 and they had flying cars and hoverboards and biometrics and video
calls and what look like Google glass a lot of the times and a lot of other
stuff that was completely cockamamie but some of those dreams were true some were
not and as a framework for future fest we can think to the past and our dreams
that did or didn't come true and that's what we'll start and then move to the
future we're sitting here today what do we think the future may bode so turning
you on maybe as a starting point as you think back to your high school days
thirty years ago we were both there and dreaming of that future what about today
is or isn't in accordance what you thought back then I mean where where
have your dreams of the future the bold visions that were not net reality today
I think the the most remarkable thing that we do have today is the Internet
access to all the world's information from anywhere so that that's it's having
a supercomputer in your pocket is I think something people wouldn't have
predicted and back to the future so that so that's the biggest thing and and
probably the what they were surprised that is that we have in progress more in
space so because people would have expected I think to have a space hotel
in fact ROTC clock to 2001 yeah yeah exactly so 2010 was really crazy you
know because space advancement so it would like be going to Jupiter and that
kind of thing so that that's probably like the most surprising thing like
particularly if you go back even further if you say in 69 when people first
landed on the moon if you'd asked people if you'd asked the public what what
would the situation be in 2015 I think they would imagine that where we would
have a base on the moon a base on Mars and be you know all over the solar
system by now mmm-hmm that's probably bigger so what
happens I mean is there any pattern you can sense for where our dreams and
science fiction realities drift from reality and where they are realities
there's some reason you think because because we have dreams today of where
the you know that we're gonna have these Mars colonies in their future and
problem unless something jumps to mind let me Lindy I have a bunch of questions
by the way from the idea as well here right why I want to move to something a
little more current as we move forward in time twenty years ago when we first
met you were starting your first Internet company up to the one before
PayPal zip2 and I know that in your youth you envisioned a variety of
industries that needed to change when you were pursuing your first one did you
imagine you would get to the next one and the next one
no I having it the winners and colleges thought well what do things that almost
like to affect the future of humanity just in you know at a macro level and
interesting like we like the Internet and sustainable energy making life
multiplanetary and then genetics and AI and I thought the first three george'll
knows they were like almost certainly going to be good and then the last two a
little more dodgy due to the net benefit yeah those were the double-edged sword
and you're not sure which edge is worse interesting so it would seems like
begging the question our genetics and AI the ones that are right for students
today to be thinking about as they look there they are
yeah Mike my cousin of younger cousin who is just finishing up sort of physics
and computer science degree actually Berkeley it we know and he's uh he says
everyone there is in the computer science department is working on AI so I
think I think we're going to see some crazy breakthroughs in in the next few
years on that front yeah I want to come back to that later
as we look more to your vision of the future as you think back go to your
younger self but you know many of the people in the audience are themselves
college students and these are undergrad or grad programs and are thinking about
the world they're entering it I'm curious this may be an odd question but
one that I find fascinating as you think here today back to your younger self is
there any advice you wish you could give and your younger self in not with
hindsight given what you know now well I mean I do like a lot of advice I hate a
whole bunch of legalese I had a gadget but it just in terms of how to think
about a life trajectory perhaps or how to pursue your passions I mean it I'm
I'm reasonably happy with how things turned out
so it's like to shake yeah that's a good point
I think there's anything yeah well let you something just to mind let me know
but let me uh I mean apart from the obvious like just telling telling my
younger self exactly how the future all unfold which is right but but that's
that you know wouldn't be that's not exactly advice or has been calculated
into non correct I'm working with them yeah yeah exactly
like
I mean I think there's a lot of things I mean I sort of I mean certainly I mean
you know listen listen more to critical feedback yeah I mean like a lot of
things I've learned in college actually are pretty helpful I mean the thank the
physics approach to thinking is very good like the first principles approach
and you applied that broadly yeah applying the first principles approach
to thinking is I think a good way to figure out the counterintuitive
situations and stuff that I once thought was really a helpful thing to learn
[Music] that's good yeah thing yeah look sorry
no feel free to jump in I don't know how I'd answer that question I mean yeah
what would you do what would you tell your yourself it'll be alright
you weren't as dorky as your things I'd like that nothing really too actually
won't tell her about it well just don't be so insecure about I'm insecure about
yeah I would probably advise to myself but uh this one I'm not used to thinking
about me um so you know I may be route roughly over generalizing here but it
seems to me that there's some often a trigger problem that generates in your
mind a great solutions when you come up with new company so for example when
trying to negotiate with the Russians for launch capacity the high that we
should just build a better rocket to solve this problem comes forth or when
you deal with the commute on the five ever in LA it's like my god what is
wrong with mass transit and perhaps Hyperloop and them you know with with
with a variety of ideas there seems to be some trigger something is broken in
the world that and you have an idea of how to fix it and I guess what I'm
curious about is not how you've picked the areas of interest in the solutions
but how have you decided what not super fix in other words there's many things
that need fixing in the world and students here probably can think of a
long list many of which you could probably imagine solutions to using the
physics first principle approach but has there been any framework or idea of use
to filter out what you don't do what you don't pursue um yeah I mean well if sort
of follows it or what it initially was there okay I hope you go back to the
college senses working on energy storage technologies for electric vehicles and
that's what I was going to pursue at Stanford actually with work work on like
advanced capacitors and batteries to improve the energy density for electric
vehicles and then the internet was kind of happening it was like the internet
was happening like back in 94 95 and I wasn't sure if what I worked on in the
PhD would actually be useful so I was like I was really concerned that if I'd
lying timing or what was your intuition
meaning I think it could be academically useful but not practically useful like I
think you could result in a PhD and adding some leaf to the tree of
knowledge but then then discovering that well it's not really going to matter
like that's because it is going to be a good enough thing to actually be used in
electric vehicle I wasn't sure I mean so it was like I was uncertain as to
whether success was one of the possible outcomes like I thought maybe it was but
I wasn't sure and and then I thought well if I watch the internet get both
while I'm doing this that that that would be really frustrating there's a
sense of that eminent timing like that was the time for the internet and maybe
it was tough could wait or be in the back of your mind was it always there is
like one day I'll get back to that or was it for probably a defector and did
end up doing that but yeah absolutely the internet was happening it like
really taking off all of those people weren't aware of it in 95 and and so I
figured like electric vehicle technology energy storage technology will be some
sort of natural progression than that and I could come back to it
later but the internet you know it was really that was the moment to really do
something although in 95 it wasn't obvious that you could actually make any
money on the internet this was like no nobody until Netscape went public I
think at the end of 95 nobody even thought there was like you
could make a valuable company on the Internet
what audience does it seem now yes like now it seems really obvious but back
then I was not at all so it was really fun perspective of it
wasn't like oh I want to make a bunch of money it was actually from it's like I
want to just be a part of pulling this thing that I thought was like like a
nervous system it was like previously people had communicated effectively by
osmosis and you know you'd have like basically physically continue to connect
with somebody to really communicate you like a letter like you said letters like
that on paper and with the internet anyone who had a connection anywhere in
the world would have access to all the world's information just like sort of a
nervous system in a soap like so humanity was effectively becoming super
organism and qualitatively different than what had been before
and so I want to be part of that and yeah so but but initially the goal was
just to make enough money to pay the rent it wasn't to do anything beyond
that and then as many know that much of that capital then got ploughed back and
do your next businesses right all right I get it exactly so then they and then
the internet it's also helpful because it's anything to do with software is a
low capital endeavor so I didn't have any money I just had a bunch of student
debt and so this but but software you can just write like by yourself
and you don't need a lot of atoms like you don't need a lot of tooling and
equipment and so it's like capital intensive so the ability to start a
company if it's software related and it's the first company is much much
easier and it seems obvious now that of course the easier place to start and
then as you get more of a person reputation and have more personal
capital as some memory not know SpaceX was ill but was entirely funded by elan
for its first period partially from you know and in an era when other probably
wouldn't have funded it i in those arrived two days oh and actually I'm in
the precursor to to SpaceX was not the idea wasn't really to create a company
it was it was to try to figure out why we hadn't gone ten people to Mars so we
went from Step two to PayPal and then and then going from PayPal so the next
thing I was sort of thinking well it is a some way to reignite the dream of
Apollo and I thought well is maybe a question of like we'd lost the will to
explore it but I actually think that that that my original premise was wrong
we've not lost the will to explore but people did not think there was a way and
what I don't think there's a way then they just they won't flash their head
against the wall continuously they'll you know they'll sort of give up so but
it but in the beginning I thought it was a question of will so so that what if we
can send a small greenhouse the surface of Mars and you and you have seeds and
nutrient gel and you hydrated upon landing and then you'd have this little
greenhouse on surface of Mars and people tend to respond to presidents in
superlatives and this will be the first life on Mars as far as when you weathers
the life's ever travel you have this great shot of green plants on a red
background and at the world maybe that would get people excited about sending
people to Mars so the headlines are clear in your mind
once we had to guess on what that would lead to the catalyze action and an
exhibit that the goal was was to the public excited about that and get NASA's
budget increased so that was actually the original goal and so I went to
Russia to try to buy up some ICBMs in 2001 it's interesting experience a lot
of ideas yeah a lot of vodka yeah it's crazy and I couldn't afford the regular
rockets like the Boeing and Lockheed rockets too expensive and dalaran yes
very expensive I'm sorry we may jump in here for a sec
because the anecdote you brought up of wanting to change government policy and
inspire the world to have a Mars program if you will whether it's popular
uprising or space programs at the government level I think it's a
fascinating anecdote because in a sense what you were saying is I as an
individual on a start a entity business or otherwise that will catalyze change
even beyond the company level or the industry level and I see a parallel in
other initiatives you've taken on in that if you look at the goal of Tesla
under your leadership it is to assure the transition to all vehicles being
electric not just the cars that currently are produced by Tesla and with
power wall and Solar City arguably the description is one of a showing in
wholesale shift to renewable energy many of the solutions required wouldn't be
provided by the companies are starting and so they view on entrepreneurship as
a venture capitalist every day we we see this incredible scope of ambition here
that is breathtaking I change the world with Steve Jobs and others talking about
in a company maybe shifting an industry but we're talking about shifting the
entire zeitgeist of the world in a sense and maybe eventually other worlds my
question is do you do you start always in your mind with that as a like I said
course the starting point is it okay I see this arc of a story like but the
Mars example or renewable energy and then do you pull back to where's the
best product to get it unstuck like why isn't this happening and like if I solve
that problem then it unlocks value like how does that happen in your mind sure
so I mean I should say like the when we started SpaceX and Tesla I mean I really
thought the probability of success was very low I mean it wasn't like I think I
will definitely be successful I thought if it would be like maybe 10 percent
likely well yeah and in the key we came very close to
both companies not succeeding in 2008 you know we have to we'd had three
failures of the SpaceX rocket so we were 0 for 3
we had the crazy financial recession like the Great Recession the Tesla
financing round fallen apart because the pretty hard to raise money for the start
of car company if GM and Chrysler go bankrupt like fields poorly for the
upside yeah it's tricky one and you know unfortunately at the end of 2008 the
fourth launch which is that was the last Bush we had money for worked for SpaceX
and and then we closed the Tesla finance ground is you know Christmas Eve 2008
last hour of the last day that was possible yeah
and thanks to you fellows it on the most extraordinary act of entrepreneurial
zeal and commitment I've ever seen where you know one personally saved us on
those hours like when no one else would write a cheque he spoke for it all and
that slipped the mentality from fear to greed and everyone join the bandwagon
and everything changed from you know dividend to the ground to success but
you were willing to go like net negative personally the entire net worth and it's
remarkable story and thanks for supporting by the way that was but yeah
much appreciate it yeah we were happy to fall right behind in line but but it was
all him um so I guess I'm this idea of the big picture I'm curious in the way I
heard you just now described the green house and the headlines is interesting
do the marketing headlines flash through your mind as you introduce new products
that are stepped to a much grander vision I'm curious because it seems like
it has two purposes like getting employees customers everyone really
gung-ho about the vision but it also makes it larger than life in so many
ways well I mean if you're trying to convince the public to do something you
have to say okay how's this going to read and what what message are we going
to try to convey what will people respond to what would I respond to if I
was you know sort of objective over the part
and so that's that's really you know if you're trying to change people's minds
or get people fired up about something then you got to think okay what's that
message what we're going to get them really excited and that's really good
advice by the way all the engineering students answer as I was when as long
I'm confused as a adjunct sometimes to these grand visions like making humanity
and multiplanetary species or shifting us to renewable energy or making all
vehicles electric that has a Purpose Driven element to it there's a higher
calling than the quarterly bottom line in fact it was a Tesla quarterly report
I remember famously where the opening the literally opening line it was while
profits are not a priority comma never sort of never let's exactly and it
occurred I was struck by it at first and it didn't occur to me that it's not like
I've missed some sort of misdirected fiduciary question to me it seems like
how could you lead an industry transition if your business model was
worse than what's already there meaning like if you weren't more profitable in
the long term and a better business why would anyone shift right so it almost
feels like with the right purpose prophets follow yeah well if you make a
if the you know if the output is more valuable than the inputs which is really
that's that's profit like the outputs more live on the input that says you do
you have a useful company so you know in a high-growth scenario you have a lot
more inputs for for future outputs so that you have negative cash flow and
like a profitability and which we currently have a Tesla but in the long
term of course that has to be that that has to be fixed
they can't be negative cash flow and long term and that there needs to be a
net positive output which is sort of profits in the long term but in the
source and wind is high crow except that that doesn't it isn't the most sensible
thing and then there's also related things like open sourcing patents and
act that to me relate to the purpose let's let it go a lot of industry do
this and I'm psyched I'm curious what you see from your vantage point as the
benefits of a purpose to company meaning when you have this thing
that every employee and customer knows is the purpose of the company how do you
see that flowing through to benefits for the company well I think I think having
a purpose suddenly is going to attract the very best talent in the world
because if people can if it's something that's intrinsically enjoyable and the
branch rewards are good but then also it's something that's going to genuinely
change the world and that's I think that's pretty powerful motivator and but
I don't think like everything needs to change the world you know you know
honestly like there's lots of like useful things that people do and I mean
I think really it should be like a usefulness optimization like just
sailing is what I'm doing as useful as it could be you J my food the goal of an
organization when I go in general yeah and you know just even if something
isn't changing the world that Goods make making people's lives better I think
that's that's great and you know if even if some things like making own people
sides only slightly better but it's a large number of people in kind like the
area under the curve or is is quite good and that mathematical first principle
the point utility in number regulator growth yeah like I mean it's look like
what it's like so like it was like some app really making people's lives better
if it's actually but if it's affecting a lot of people even in a small way then
yeah the sort of area is good so that she steers a little bit since it is
futurefest looking to the future right we started 30 years in the past but the
future keeps accelerating so let's maybe look 20 years in the future for an
equivalent leap Oh arguably five years in the future might be equal to the past
30 but let's say 20 so the year 2035 what does the future look like as far as
you can go what would you that's 20 to 20 or 25 yeah 20 years it's always
really tricky to predict the future
alright some of its pretty obvious like computing power is going to be just
crazy and really the big change is the cost of computing power hmm not so much
the sort of circuit density sort of the Moore's Law thing but if you if you look
at say what is the actual dollars per video per instruction and and that that
is dry I mean that that that cost is is dropping exponentially everything about
it like a compact you're making a computer just you're rearranging silicon
and copper you know so if you run out on a little chip and once the capital cost
of the development and the the chip plant is paid for the act I mean the
marginal cost of a chip is very very tiny so I think we'll see massively
parallel computers and computing power and storage being you know as really as
much as you want it is interesting I to start with that like if I I don't know
what else to predict but as a foundation we're sure of this seems like the safest
starting you know premise but then what is that ripple through to and feels like
genetics in the I which you mentioned autonomous driving space related topics
I mean just ubiquitous computing everywhere like like AI is going to be
incredibly sophisticated in 20 years hmm the first like it seems to be
accelerating and that the tricky thing about predicting things when there's an
exponential is that next potential looks like looks linear closed off and and but
it's actually it's not linear so and AI appears to be accelerating that's what I
can see and for that you look at autonomous driving and point a is like
this theory like functionality as you have guideposts
well that's or debate about someone like is AI accelerating or not
and the like you think well what's the y-axis you know if you different
accelerating your tea on the x-axis but what's what the y-axis is it well
thought about that I think you could have a recursive y-axis so that if at
any point in time your predictions for AI are coming sooner or later that that
actually would help define whether it's accelerating or not whatever that axis
was so you mentioned everything versus of access like so if in any given year
if you if you find your predictions are going further out or coming for coming
closer read that that actually you know is one way to think of acceleration
because otherwise what's the what's the quality verbal quantitative measure of
AI everything I give it a given technology is always twenty years in the
future yeah it's always 20 to the future it's like more logarithmic so today I
thing like it's one of the most after we accelerating things that you're aware of
yes and I actually feel it with with autonomous driving where you know three
years ago I thought it was ten years away and at two years ago I thought it
was five years away now I think it's three years away or less than three
years away Wow so any me say away like like like release the market available
for consumer adoption because as opposed to prototyping no I mean like like the
technology works there's a sort of second question as to when
regulators would approve it yeah yeah yeah but but like look at that
technology works in a in a technology works as a general solution so like if I
was driving like base products anywhere so it could be centered four-point
things let's highway only or in hi only we're already in public beta with this
Tessa so we'll be hopefully in the next
several weeks releasing to to all of the cars that happen automatically like
roughly the last 12 months Wow and so it this seems like one of
those things that once you've experienced it the inevitability of it
becomes more apparent kind of like first time I sat in electric vehicle it's just
so clear in same with Panama's vehicles um do you think that
will help persuade public opinion and like like the regulatory question is
interesting one because technology continued to accelerate human nature
doesn't and acceptance of change and just not sure if there's look as we'd
look out in the future should we assume that no matter how fast something like
Moore's law accelerates all of the counterbalance and force of human nature
and habit yeah yeah I think yeah there's always going to be the sort of keep is
always going to be human nature and it's so difficult to predict I think what
what that will how that will affect things but I'm not sure I fully answer
your question so in terms of what what I think tween Liam lies so for sure your
Vic was computing AI that's beyond anything like the public appreciated
today I think we'll have most of the new vehicles being produced being electric
and will be probably have the super majority of energy being produced being
sustainable so I think I think we're on head of solar primarily in your memory
Sola yeah and so I think those I think those are sort of some good things like
will be fun hopefully on a good path for sustainable energy sooner is always
better but I think by 2035 I think will be substantially like what most of
transport most of new energy being produced will be sustainable broadband
everywhere broadband everywhere yeah Mars colony and hopefully hopefully a
small base on Mars or some school city on Mars in 20 years yes I think I'm
gonna sit in here well okay fine town village
so Hamlet Pacific I mean that's exciting I mean that could get people fired up
about the future yeah I do I agree exactly I think that the idea of
being multiple species and getting up there and exploring the Stars is one of
those really inspiring exciting things I mean just as Apollo was incredibly
inspiring to everyone around the world and even those only a very tiny number
of people went there but I mean vicariously we all winter and and I
think that's true of if we have a Mars base as well and it's very important
that we have things that are exciting and inspiring the future because
otherwise I get up in the morning you know it's just about one sort of sad
problem after another it's like nice life's not worth living
are there any other things that excite you a lot about the future beyond the
multiplanetary species perhaps AI who makes carry as well as excites you the
autonomous vehicles or there any other planks that you think looking forward 20
years of like this is what I really get excited about a little bit well I mean
for sure for sure Mars and sustainable transport like those items I think are
really very sustainable energy those are I think really cool things and I mean in
terms of getting excited about having these I think we'll probably start
seeing like more like truly Sybok activity like a human brain in like like
look brains of your interfaces like that there's a long as I the a eyes that are
purely yeah yeah I think so the only way we can relate I think you
know and have a conversation and there are amazing things happen like happening
these days like this they'll be able to figure out how to do it auto fishel
hippocampus in rats and monkeys and and now they're looking at doing that to
solve severe epilepsy about half of severe epilepsy cases originating that
so hippocampus and by having sort of an artificially augmented
hiccupped hippocampus they can actually solve with the severe epileptic cases
it's like a like wow you can you can write read and write information back to
the chip from a brain at the individual neuron level like today pretty exciting
the whole field of biology and things inspired by biology and the information
systems biology fascinated me personally as a computer science oriented person
before I go to the student questions which I'm about to do it was one last
story I wanted to share that we experience together and ask your
thoughts about it we were in Hawthorne Texas when the grasshopper vehicle fire
occur happens in the spectacular explosion right in front of us and right
and I'm like a Brook the SpaceX Board out to take a look at one of the
critical takeoff and landing tests of course that's the one that blows up
we're all in a pen in a glass of Wow like a whoa-oh I mean you feel the
repercussions and walking like a little rod it's a rapid on schedule just
assembly that's right yes rapid unscheduled but so many when the Rockets
are you can like a hobbyist or professionally in those with that one is
every component part is just broom strewn across and as we watch one of the
other board members asked maybe they cheering up kind of method with some
quoting Bill Gates or somebody that said you know if you haven't failed and
you're not learning or it's a paraphrase of the quote and I remember your reply
and I have it written as a quote because I want to put it on a placard given the
options I prefer to learn from success which I think you can come back and so I
guess at least Curie's in general what do you think of the Silicon Valley
mantra fail fast fail often or as Esther Dyson so it's always make new mistakes
as if failure is the crucible of learning and curious if you had any
further thoughts on that and that may be off the Duff comment you made up there I
mean there are there are many bits truth I mean I think it's sort of just like
some entropic basis but it's like there are many Wolf's more ways to fail than
to succeed so you have to explore I mean particular like for a rocket there's
like a thousand ways to think and fail in like one way it can work so you could
you can have a lot of rocket players to explore all the ways in which you can
fail so if it but I do think that one great thing about the Silicon Valley is
that failure is not a knot stigma so it's like if you if you try
hard and it doesn't work out that's okay like you can learn from that and you do
another company and it's not a big deal and that's that's really one of the
great things about soca die interesting do you also I'm curious if
either on the well it seems to me that I'm the system design side you can
accommodate a likely failure of sub components and so much of the elegance
of let's say Oh Falcon 9 or fucking nine heavy at an ultimate incarnation of this
vision of how the rocket should be built to say hey parts will fail thing but
here's how the system can succeed and I'm curious if there's any other
thoughts along that how to how to accommodate anticipated failure and then
also maybe inner like in managerial II is there ways that you motivate the team
either in advance of failure to coach them on eight this is going to happen or
in the aftermath of failure to get them fired up to solve it and move forward
when it might be dark times and like for example you emotions like failure to
launch you know exploding on the paddy know
there's all these it's a very visual it's public spectacle and you have a
setback in the rocket industry and curious how you manage around failure i
I mean it I think it's it's like quite quite painful and difficult honestly and
it feels terrible but yeah I mean the pickup is sort of looking to you know me
to you know rally them and I do but honestly feel super bad like punch in
the gut yeah yeah remembers almost like a tight like the stages of grief I
remember in Texas it's got like sort of denial already his is it dinner oh my
god which is that one yeah I mean it's just I mean it's particularly with
Rockets it's just a really like a rock with rockets right space is hard and
rockets tend to fail unfortunately and even when you've got like a lot of
really smart people working super hard to minimize the probability of failure
it's still still there and it's in its notes it's quite significant and if you
live asking like well why why Rockets it especially hard and your part of it is
like everything has to work with the first time like there's no you can't do
a recall you can't patch it it's got its like nine minutes to orbit or it's over
and and then the you know what you can't you can never test the rocket completely
in the environment that it's actually going to experience you can't fully
recreate something that's moving super fast in a vacuum on surface of a like
you can only really record recreate that on it in space so the limited the
simulation tools all right is that a limit of the simulation tools today or
the yeah absolutely the if there's any error between the
simulation and reality and there's always some amount of error then then
that that can result in a failure so it's a really really tricky one it's
like in a software analogy it would be like if you had to write a whole bunch
of software modules and you can never run them together and you can run them
on the target computer like when you're testing them you'd have to test them
individually and not in the actual computer that they're going to run on
gotcha then you put them put all the modules together run it for the first
time pick a completely different very different computer and it has to run
with no bugs that is difficult maybe software analogies to rocket
design are deep modular reuse I mean there's many of these like those
sauron's mirror it's not like this is an aerospace engineer by traditional
training coming but but is in fact radically changing industry I think
applying ACS perspective to industry after industry I'm like how would how
would you know computer scientist or a physicist approach the problem which
oftentimes the solution very unlike the industry incumbents there's there's a
certain elegance to it from the outside absolute is ever like myself um let me
switch if I may to some student questions it should be completely in a
different direction um first one comes on Nick Zhu and an architectural design
code so it'll be switching more to the other side of our brain for a moment
what do you look for in design and related if you'd like what do you look
for in art
design might be more immediately their lawn but that's where he's coming from
sure I mean I think there's I mean you want to make something beautiful I mean
that you want to trigger whatever whatever fundamental aesthetic
algorithms are like I gave in your brain there's you have I think some intrinsic
elements that that represent theory and and that that trigger the emotion of
appreciation of beauty in in your your mind and I think that these are these
are actually relatively consistent among people I mean not completely so people
like not everyone likes the same thing but there are there's a lot of
commonality and and there yeah and they're worth it but but I think it is
important to combine aesthetic design with functionality like the thing that's
like if you say like what was really hard about the Model S or the model acts
was to combine aesthetics and utility so to balance the two you can make a car
look very good by giving it sort of certain proportions like making it sort
of low and slim and but if you could do that the utility is significantly
affected so the big challenge with the set of Model S was trying to figure out
how do we get five adults plus two kids because I want to have seventeen it
seems like the dragon and three Tesla's room for seven seven five children I can
see it might be an important design parameter I definitely don't think we
should take the whole family on the spacecraft
but a big challenge with the equity s was having a car that had high utility
and looked good and the same with the X so I could think with the tomato sports
car look good is relatively easy but to make a sedan look good or an SUV look
good is because quite difficult and and I think in other principle is you want
to have it feel bigger on the inside then it looks on the outside and that
that's also a really hard thing to do and then really pay attention to the
little details the the nuances of design and shape and form function and the you
know just the way it looks in different lights and when something's off the
little thing how do you experience that never drives me bananas yeah I mean it
the problem is like if you you can train yourself to to pay attention to the tiny
details I think almost anyone can although it this is a very much double
edged sword because then you see all the little beefy and then little things
driving crazy so but like most people don't they don't they don't consciously
see the small details but they they do subconsciously see them like you do sort
of your mind takes into yourself of the overall you know the overall impression
and you know if something is appealing or not even though you may not be able
to point out exactly why and it's it's a summation of these many small details so
most of this experience it as a oh I think that's ugly or I think that's
beautiful or like wow that's elegant but ya can't break it down you mentioned
something in passing like you can train yourself in this though yeah you can
train yourself I think you can make yourself pay attention to to why you
essentially bring the subconscious awareness into conscious awareness I
wish I could do that how do you do that
just pay really close attention almost like a meditation on the object trying
to find the details like why do I not like this is that what yes look look
closely and carefully mmm and therefore any given object its but
it's geometry its I've heard someone was for Steve Jobs and the thought occurred
to me is well I work briefly with him and that I could only experience as a
visceral agitation with imperfection like that's just wrong I got yeah it'd
be fix I actually turn it off otherwise I can't go through a life resistor Jan
it's yeah it's the world around you or even in yeah yeah yeah he's a cute
because there's always something wrong somewhere all the time and so it really
have to turn it off otherwise you know you just kept there like the list of
mental list of things that are wrong just drives you crazy I just wish this
way he's like record it for everyone else to go fix like just running tally
oh my god um so let me go to one other question I found that one interesting
guy I had no idea where that was going to go so I really appreciate that
question Nick thank you um let's see which one of these don't there's some
combination of questions let me mention both you can pick which one you like
more they both relate to colonizing Mars one comes from Henning Woodall a PhD
candidate in civil and environmental engineering which just asks anyone given
your planting and bring the million colonists to Mars what are the pressing
future technologies that need to develop in order to support a robust and
thriving surface colony so as technology for I guess survival and then maybe
related from the Stanford space initiative students how do you envision
humans governing a separate planet I'm not sure had to think about that yet a
little bit about those things I mean the I think the first challenge is just
getting there at all and like that so SpaceX is working super hard on program
just how to get large numbers of people and cargo to Mars and I think we've got
something that I think works at a three fundamental physics and economics level
so it's a question of figuring out the detailed design
which were working on we're really spending like half an hour a week on it
because we've like pressing near ten priorities but I'm kind of excited about
how it's coming together so to keep getting skinning that transport thing
sold I think will then open up a tremendous number of opportunities for
people on Mars you know just like you know having the Union Pacific Railroad
to California and the you know and look at what would you know resulted I hold
another system of other companies figured out it's like what are you going
to get there then you get it then that the opportunities of entrepreneurs are
tremendous and that ranges everything from you know everything you can imagine
thank you starting you know like it was Italian restaurant or something on Mars
you know it's like somebody's got to do it and I'll be kind of cool you know
like a iron iron refinery like alkalete or geometry you know you know the like
the old the entire basic industry and and then there probably be things like
that are just unique to Mars but we got up we got to get that you know
effectively that Union Pacific Railroad there in order to get get the
entrepreneurs that and and and then create a fertile environment for them to
create companies so that that's that's if the so once you're there it's going
to be I think a lot of exciting things that can be done and in the beginning if
people would live in kind of glass domes but but over time we were terraform Mars
and make it like or and so so I think it just filled a lot of super exciting
things that are hard to take just like when they're building you in cific they
would hard nobody would have predicted Silicon Valley Emily would write you
know that that's would have been like an urbanization in general yeah you know
well the California would be like who's the most populous state in the country
except like that sounds crazy for them gold discovery tonight yeah so
and sort of yes I think like it's really incoming on SpaceX or you know maybe
other organizations to figure out how to get there while otherwise nothing else
matters and then once you get those a lot of so yeah a lot a lot that could be
done from a governance standpoint I mean obviously ultimately the governance of
ours will be up to the Martians but the particular we have a name from we have a
Martian me neither but but I think if you said like how
would you do double democracy to mono or like some a new reversion I think we
probably have more of a direct democracy than a representative democracy and you
know when the when the United States was formed it was really it was impossible
to have a direct democracy like England or like who you've got it even sending a
letter took weeks so there's no way that people could like vote directly on
issues you had to have representatives interesting so I think I think probably
there would be more direct democracy in this thing about the latency of
communication foundational a new thing I just hear communication errors and
communication latency when you have letters that take weeks to get anywhere
would would have made if governance almost impossible native if it hadn't
been a representative democracy he had a lot of people couldn't read or all right
yeah so I was just wondering if you were to start over with a clean sheet of
paper on governance is do you think a framework that could be envisioned that
encompasses other sentient beings to come
meaning the AIS and others who might clamor for their rights
Oh am i right it's double to predict but I can tell they probably would
electorate aim for a more direct democracy and then that entire page
about this and he had like a good suggestion like we should limit the
number of words in a law like reveries like thousand page laws I can mass and
like nobody's read them Twitter equivalent of parsimony yeah like I
don't know a thousand word better count or something is that okay if you can't
write the law in a thousand words then probably it shouldn't be there
and you know just we shouldn't have you know a single law passed that's like the
size of all of the Rings mystery and like literally not a single person in
Congress has read the whole thing have negative tax code inscrutable but if
exactly so that so does that open any laws also have an infinite lifespan
unless they're given some sort of you know sunset periods are probably be good
to default laws to have a sunset period again if it's not it's not good enough
to be renewed then it goes away and and maybe some hysteresis in that in making
it easier to removable than to put one in place it can just magic like over
time like the body of law just gets bigger and bigger and bigger so like you
like how do you avoid that and and you have inertia associated with laws and
and so maybe you know it would take sixty percent to create a law but only
40 percent to remove the law hmm interesting
that's me yeah yeah little bit like that those are like the the rules of a
constitutional democracy have such a profound impact and have a new
playground to be fantastic there's something embedded in what you said a
moment ago that I want to highlight on a transition to the perhaps a closing
question the hurt in passing you know I think about some of these things about a
half hour a week if I heard you right and this is I think a profound thing to
to dwell on is that you know he's changing the world in so many areas and
not many entrepreneurs I see get and myself and included enamored with all of
the possibilities of a future Mars base of the terraforming of the every aspect
of it that might need to come into being and I find myself often distracted by
those future questions that are a little less relevant today what you just heard
was we gotta solve the railway first like let me put 90% 95% of my effort
into that and not get distracted by all the other
interesting questions that need to come later
and I remember a few years ago maybe three four years ago trying to get you
to brainstorm with craig Venter about you know doing a sample return from Mars
and sending a genetic sequencer there to help understand life there that might
exist etc and I remember profoundly that the response was added a really
interesting topic but I got to get these Rockets to work first before that's
going to be relevant to me and let me hunker down on what's important here and
that ability to prioritize it on the stepping-stones to a huge vision it is
this interesting dichotomy like not just pure visionary scattered across many
things alone it's clear sense of where we're heading chaining back to the
present and making sure we're taking the right steps in that and a fumble to
feature if you will I think I wish we could all do that now in the way we try
to implement change so let me move if I may do one last question which could be
broad or not which is a lot of people here from all kinds of parts of the
world and I think everyone who hears your story you know immigrant from South
Africa through Canada to the u.s. taking on four or five different industries
with great aplomb and success is inspiring but it's not just that you've
had business success or Technology success it's that you really are
changing the world for the better in these areas um so I guess maybe far as a
closing question again looking from the present to the future what you see as
the sort of the biggest pressing problems that need to be addressed this
main stack of card you pull that filter off for a moment on the things the world
that are broken and it does if everyone here in the audience could be a change
agent themselves in their area of passion what would you hope to catalyze
today you guys will solve this big hairy problem figure out why it's broken um
you know I said I don't think everyone needs to go you know try to solve like
some big big well changing problem I mean I think that like if I really think
like we should just think like all we're doing something that's useful to the
world like if you're doing something useful that's great like neji's like
animals I really think some things are more useful sure
sure but but I can anyone need a personal pic I just think that like you
sort of a usefulness optimization is is like that's like a really good thing you
know if you've done something that's useful to your fellow human beings
that's you've done a really good thing and people should feel pretty proud of
doing that you know it doesn't doesn't always have to be something that's going
to change the world I mean sometimes the world you just keep going in a
particular direction of the world lab yeah why could they look like they're
going in the right direction in instant and I mean in a lot of ways that the
will be asked and we're wearing in great shape in that if you look at say by
crimes per capita in the world it's a time like all-time low we're actually
quite prosperous and you know compared to there's history and you know I think
there's a lot of things to feel good about in terms of how the world is today
access to information is incredible I mean you see anyone with you like a 100
a lot of ice kid has access to basically all the world's information which is an
incredible thing and yeah so I honestly I just think like the best thing appeals
try to do is say okay what is something I can do that would really be be useful
to the world and just do that yeah that is great well fantastic thank you so
much for being goes today I'm futurefest
[Applause]
so just very quickly on behalf of all the faculty and staff affiliated with
stvp we'd like to thank president Hennessy the school of engineering and
our home department of management science and engineering math u2's
Stanford Arts and the amazing staff here at Bing that was so helpful to us this
morning dfj obviously for your incredible sponsorship of futurefest and
also for your continued long-term support of stvp and our hope to create
entrepreneurship education opportunities for Stanford students and of course we
offer our most sincere thanks please help me in thanking again Elon Musk and
Steve Jurvetson [Applause]
[Music]
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